Pick your coalition

Special votes in tomorrow so how will Winstons negotiations play out. Lets dissect the policy - briefly

Transport. Both Winston and Jacinda like trains so I see a deal here.

Labour and Employment. Both Labour and NZ first happy to increase Minimum wage / Living wage (dress it up however we like) and hand out money with no expected increase in productivity. Both don't like casualisation or immigrants so I see a deal here.

Justice. Not a big issue but worth noting NZ first want to reverse Nationals raising the age of criminal responsibility. err to Labour

Racing - who cares anyone will give him this one.

Commerce and tax - note NZ reference to economic independence and Kiwisaver / Kiwibank. Tick to labour here.

Foreign Affairs. NZ first oppose Nationals support of UNSc2344, also opposed to deals with China. wants to look at FTA's so errs to Labour here.

Defence - probably anything here could keep ron mark busy with either party.

Broadcasting - not a lot here other than state control of a TV channel and free to air national sports probably errs to Labour.

Local Government - National probably have greater appetite to amend RMA than Labour so they get a point here.

Education - Removing charter schools and tipping Kohanga reo a nod would enable work with Labour's new Maori seat MPs's

Social Development - Emphasis on family responsibility rather than st is a tick here for National

Immigration. This is a biggie and is at odds with National. So clearly labour on a winner here.

Health: a few freebies for the young and old nests nicely with Labour. Reviewing Pharmac. Hmmm - not too national friendly here

Law and Order. Notig to contentious here. Either party could work with him

Housing. Nationals biggest stuff up. I dont know if NZ First could work with National on the basis of their policies.

Economic PLan. Labour happy to buy flakey NZ assets (eg trains) National want immigration. Labour more aligned here.

Outdoor rec. Phase out 1080. That will make the Greens happy

Primary industries. NZ First does not want foreign owned NZ assets .So cant be National here.

Environment and conservation. In a labour led coalition this will be left toe the Greens. If national it will get a bit of a nod but not much

Superannuation. Raising the retirement age and restarting contributions to NZ Super at odds with National so a tick to Labour here.

Electricity and power. NZ First want toe wind the clock back here. Another nod to Labour.

Tertiary and post secondary education. Wont get a lot of discussion so could go either way.



So at the end of it all strikes me there is a greater synergy with Labour than there is National.

So, how big a part will "policy" play in NZF's decision?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by macduffy

So, how big a part will "policy" play in NZF's decision?

---

All things aside, I think it will still be fairly important. This is likely Winston's swansong so legacy will be important - and that will be based on policy. he wont want to upset his constituency who have been pretty loyal over the years. I'm not convinced he is so interested in setting the foundations for the next 25 years of NZ First - probably more the next 10 years so when he walks down the streets he is recognised in a kindly manner and not with derision.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by macduffy

So, how big a part will "policy" play in NZF's decision?

---

Not much, and I don't think for one minute that NZ First will have anything to do with the decision.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by minimoke

Special votes in tomorrow so how will Winstons negotiations play out. Lets dissect the policy - briefly

Transport. Both Winston and Jacinda like trains so I see a deal here.

Labour and Employment. Both Labour and NZ first happy to increase Minimum wage / Living wage (dress it up however we like) and hand out money with no expected increase in productivity. Both don't like casualisation or immigrants so I see a deal here.

Justice. Not a big issue but worth noting NZ first want to reverse Nationals raising the age of criminal responsibility. err to Labour

Racing - who cares anyone will give him this one.

Commerce and tax - note NZ reference to economic independence and Kiwisaver / Kiwibank. Tick to labour here.

Foreign Affairs. NZ first oppose Nationals support of UNSc2344, also opposed to deals with China. wants to look at FTA's so errs to Labour here.

Defence - probably anything here could keep ron mark busy with either party.

Broadcasting - not a lot here other than state control of a TV channel and free to air national sports probably errs to Labour.

Local Government - National probably have greater appetite to amend RMA than Labour so they get a point here.

Education - Removing charter schools and tipping Kohanga reo a nod would enable work with Labour's new Maori seat MPs's

Social Development - Emphasis on family responsibility rather than st is a tick here for National

Immigration. This is a biggie and is at odds with National. So clearly labour on a winner here.

Health: a few freebies for the young and old nests nicely with Labour. Reviewing Pharmac. Hmmm - not too national friendly here

Law and Order. Notig to contentious here. Either party could work with him

Housing. Nationals biggest stuff up. I dont know if NZ First could work with National on the basis of their policies.

Economic PLan. Labour happy to buy flakey NZ assets (eg trains) National want immigration. Labour more aligned here.

Outdoor rec. Phase out 1080. That will make the Greens happy

Primary industries. NZ First does not want foreign owned NZ assets .So cant be National here.

Environment and conservation. In a labour led coalition this will be left toe the Greens. If national it will get a bit of a nod but not much

Superannuation. Raising the retirement age and restarting contributions to NZ Super at odds with National so a tick to Labour here.

Electricity and power. NZ First want toe wind the clock back here. Another nod to Labour.

Tertiary and post secondary education. Wont get a lot of discussion so could go either way.



So at the end of it all strikes me there is a greater synergy with Labour than there is National.

---

He will give some consideration to the pounding he'll get if he ignores National's high vote.
That said, I'm sure he's already decided but he will wait to make sure Labour/Greens and his mob can hold at least 61 seats - then torment the papers for a couple of days before crowning Taxcinda. Unless of course National surprises everyone and gains an extra seat.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by fungus pudding

He will give some consideration to the pounding he'll get if he ignores National's high vote.
That said, I'm sure he's already decided but he will wait to make sure Labour/Greens and his mob can hold at least 61 seats - then torment the papers for a couple of days before crowning Taxcinda. Unless of course National suprises everyone and gains an extra seat.

---

We'll probably know what's going on from 2pm tomorrow, when the final count is broadcast. With a higher percentage vote, it should favour the left, especially the first-time voters. Younger voters are also more likely to be lefties, they haven't become too cynical yet..

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by fungus pudding

Unless of course National suprises everyone and gains an extra seat.

---

In which case, Bill should sit down with
Winston and still do a confidence and supply deal with a minister outside cabinet role for him and perhaps Martin, Mark or Jones picking up some role.

And once that is done, he should still have a quiet word with James Shaw about some policy wins for the Greens on an abstain basis.

Not because Bill needs to at all but if the Greens can claim some environmental wins without supporting the government then that's a win for the environment (which Bill has promised some action on) and opens the door for dialogue on another day.

And then Labour can't claim a monopoly on climate change policy as only a Labour Greens bloc choice and gives the Greens the ability to step a little out of the shadow.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by elZorro

We'll probably know what's going on from 2pm tomorrow, when the final count is broadcast. With a higher percentage vote, it should favour the left, especially the first-time voters. Younger voters are also more likely to be lefties, they haven't become too cynical yet..

---

I did a special this time because I did an advance vote outside of my electorate (I did it around the corner from the office) and I know that a number of my colleagues did this time as well.

None of us are first time voters but we all decided to get in and vote early so unlike others I don't presume 400,000 specials are young people or left leaning. On election night the early counts were the advance votes within electoral boundaries and that wasn't left leaning...

I hate to go against history favouring the left among early voters but gut feel says it should tend to go center this time :p

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by RGR367

I hate to go against history favouring the left among early voters but gut feel says it should tend to go center this time :p

---

So does logic.

Years ago ,when I worked on elections, I remember the local Returning Officer commenting that a high percentage of special votes were not allowed or wasted. I don't remember hearing why this was so but the message we were getting behind the desks was that anyone who came in to vote and was not on the register was to be given a special vote, no argument, and its validity would be decided at the count. This "validity" question may well be behind the long delay between the election and the final count

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rep

I did a special this time because I did an advance vote outside of my electorate (I did it around the corner from the office) and I know that a number of my colleagues did this time as well.

None of us are first time voters but we all decided to get in and vote early so unlike others I don't presume 400,000 specials are young people or left leaning. On election night the early counts were the advance votes within electoral boundaries and that wasn't left leaning...

---

Have to agree in the main RGR, I know a lot of not first time voters who voted early and/or out of their electorate, not all would be left leaning either from my observation.
However, we will find out soon enough, put it this way, won't be surprised either way.

So where are the Greens in all this? James Shaw apparently sent packing to the movies yesterday. Given they also hold a key to a Party being government I would have thought they would have been a lot more vocal about their position. Are they going to be a doormat - or do they have the will to be a truly effective coalition partner?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by minimoke

So where are the Greens in all this? James Shaw apparently sent packing to the movies yesterday. Given they also hold a key to a Party being government I would have thought they would have been a lot more vocal about their position. Are they going to be a doormat - or do they have the will to be a truly effective coalition partner?

---

The Grerns have no power. If they played the game to win, they would never align with any party. If that were the case, arguably their vote would have been significantly higher - and even if not there would be no kingmaker. They would be sought after just as Winston would be. They just haven't learnt, As a minor they should be prepared to make small policy advances at every election.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by fungus pudding

The Grerns have no power. .

---

Math has never been my strongest skill but by my reckoning NZ First plus Labour does not make a majority. So the Greens hold all the power - or at least power equal to NZ First as far as Labour is concerned.

For example. If Winston wants a train from Auckland to Whangarei, and Jacinda wants one from Tauranga to Auckland then James should insist on one from the Manawatu to Hawkes bay. If Winston wants to keep things in NZ James should be insisting on Kiwibank offering lower mortgages.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by minimoke

Math has never been my strongest skill but by my reckoning NZ First plus Labour does not make a majority. So the Greens hold all the power - or at least power equal to NZ First as far as Labour is concerned.

---

But their 'power' is to agree to whatever they are offered, or keep the L/G/W block right out of it altogether. That's not equal to Winston's power who can scramble off and screw some baubles out of the other major party. MMP will never work as intended until parties emerge who are free to head in either direction.

Probably worth remembering that James Shaw made gender equality a bottom line back in 2015 at the CTU conference. He was going to make sure half of all Green Cabinet Ministers were women and he was going to ensure other coalition parties did the same. This may be a sticking point with Winston who has 7 out of 9 MP's being men - I think he works on a meritocracy basis

Clever move James. That means half the Cabinet have to be non-women. So you might be nicely lined up for a Ministerial position.

Obviously while in (if) in government I expect him to get stuck into this gender inequality business - starting with the Greens who have 2 out of 8 MP's are non-women.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by minimoke

Probably worth remembering that James Shaw made gender equality a bottom line back in 2015 at the CTU conference. He was going to make sure half of all Green Cabinet Ministers were women and he was going to ensure other coalition parties did the same. This may be a sticking point with Winston who has 7 out of 9 MP's being men - I think he works on a meritocracy basis

Clever move James. That means half the Cabinet have to be non-women. So you might be nicely lined up for a Ministerial position.

Obviously while in (if) in government I expect him to get stuck into this gender inequality business - starting with the Greens who have 2 out of 8 MP's are non-women.

---

As far as I can tell the gender balance means a minimum of 50% should be women, but 100% would be fine. Green logic.