25c opening offer.
32c will seal the deal.
If Comcast enters then maybe 40c is possible.
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I would be surprised if the opening offer was not at least 30c.
25c represents an ~30% premium to the current SP.
Given there will be a huge portion of shareholders sitting on averages of 50c+/share I would think they would want to come in with a pretty strong offer to begin with.
Start with 30c to soften shareholders up and then seal it with 35-40c (unless a competing bid comes in).
Opening offer 30c. Sky Board recommends the offer subject to an independent valuation.
Valuation comes back and says the company is worth $600M - $800M.
IFT lift the offer price to $600M (35c) and that is the end of the story unless a competing bid comes in.
IFT are borrowing $300M for their share so they must be expecting Sky to end up going for at least $600M.
Apart from you guys is anyone else actually speculating on a takeover bid?
That is what would happen if the stock wasn't being manipulated.
I've noticed the last 2 trading days the stock has been pushed down before close. The last 2 weeks of trading has been crazy.
The stock should be trading at 25 in a normal situation. Thus making 30 as an open offer logical. But at the moment things aren't logical.
I think the offer will be 6-7 x EBIDTA...
Comcast is the only logical buyer that could push it past 40c.
They have Sky UK and could merge the branding together easily.
Their content is already on Sky and they could add more channels.
They could use it to enter the NZ broadband market.
They could use Lightbox and Neon for their new PeacockTV platform.
They might want to have a bigger base here because NZ is Covid free.