Come on - already in the despair phase?
I am sure they will get back to that price and higher ... but it might take a handful of years until the bear is over and property booming again ....
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A reminder
Humongous sales number announced next week
Might even give some earnings guidance ....underlying earnings $100m plus
Recovery in share price likely
I am not one to follow what MarketScreener values a company at, but current average valuations of Summerset are $7.76 in comparison to Ryman which are valued at $10.80 and Oceania at $1.19. Both Summerset and Oceania are fairly valued at this point and I find Summerset's drop is mainly due to pre Bear Market trends which could continue. If this bear market does take hold, I feel Summerset and Ryman will take the biggest hits. I must admit, I feel this is a correction and not a Bear Market (but don't quote me and I could be wrong). I think the price has been already built in for Summerset on slower sales and we might see a further drop only if the Bear Market is upon us.
The extremely well respected and legendary Couta1 reversion theory says 5:1 OCA v SUM, so SUM is only worth $5.30 but I would not be a buyer at that price because most purchases of SUM units are discretionary lifestyle choices made only if and when people can sell their homes for what they want for them.
Picked up some this morning at $6.11.
I'm investing in the long term as I normally do.
I consider it to be a good buy, with PE at only 6.37 and Div yield of 2.14%
Shareholders will be anxiously awaiting Q4 sales numbers. Astute observers will have noticed that cash flow growth has been a LOT slower than underlying profit growth in the last 2 years. They've got away with that so far by issuing a lot of cheap debt but that can't go on forever.
I remain of the view that its a BIG mistake not to have fixed weekly fees for life when almost every other company in this sector does.
You may be correct with this and I value your input with these companies, as well as Couta with insider knowledge. On that note I have done a guess as to what the sales figures will look like. I am guessing at 135 new sales and about 102 resales. This brings a Total of around 237 sales, plus the 447 already sold and a Total for 684 for the year. I am hoping for more new sales, but I am trying to be realistic..... DYOR and I would love to hear other guesses.
I'm too scared to guess mate because on the balance of probabilities one looks like an idiot within a very short time frame lol
I`m up for it. After looking back the last 4 years of performance and mixing in a flat property market here are my (fairly conservative) estimates;
new sales for the quarter -85
resales for the quarter -75
I also predict they will make c. 100 m FY 2018 = 45 cps @ average PE of 16.3 = share price of $7.33
I think think the general investors withdrawal of retirement stocks is overdone. Time is linear and there are plenty of , every increasing -old stubborn , intolerant rich guys who will fill our offerings- where else will they live - with their kids?.
The retirement village juggernaut is not over for a very long time.
I will mostly be using the result tomorrow as a bell weather for OCA. After all you just can't have too many of them.
(disc - have 15% sum)