The large investments by the likes of NPD in stations are slowing down but not stopping. Those guys aren’t dumb. Fossil fuels will be with us for a long time to come.
Printable View
If it were just cars the outlook would be at risk of flipping quite quickly, with one change of Govt (eg treble the tax). But oil is deeply embedded into the whole supply chain. Probably military as well. As long as those global requirements are in play (ie besides the more obvious planes) there will be plenty being sucked out of the earth so cost effective supply ought linger. And if retailers start to exit NZ, being the last one might be fruitful. Might....
Furthermore the E in ZEL is for energy not oil so there's no reason to be convinced it will simply be worth zero in 20 years.
gotta remember ampol want z sites not the petrol
EVs may or may not be the future - the jury is still out on that - it could go several different ways. But putting aside wishful thinking, there are some pretty serious roadblocks to a quick takeover by EVs
Current world production of cars is approximately 100m per year.
By 2030, the world will (with a very very strong tail wind) be able to produce 20m EVs - and that number is based on some pretty serious thinking about supply chains and resource constraints etc.
The price of an EV may or may not fall, a lot will depend on supply and demand of the various resources that go into the production. With increasing demand and limited supply, you'd want to lean towards prices rising wouldn't you?
One thing for certain, the governments of the world won't be subsidising everyone's EV in ten years from now.
Z has at least a 30 year runway from here, and even Z will be nimble enough to reposition in that timeframe. As usual, your Kiwi owners quick to startle and get tucked.
At the current price I'm thinking about loading up some more. Ampol got a good deal here. Average age of nz car is around 12 -15 years. Pump prices are high, margins are even higher...Auckland about to be unleashed, refinery to shut. This is going to be a cash cow imo.
If the deal goes through a cash cow for Ampol, not Z shareholders........
Interesting article on BusinessDesk
ComCom asks tough questions over Ampol's takeover of Z.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/c...-takeover-of-z
Prob paywalled
Regulatory approval for Ampol’s $2 billion takeover of Z Energy may not be as straightforward as many seem to think, with the regulator questioning how it can be certain proposed arrangements will guarantee competition.
one of the key terms of the t/o crossed off
Z Energy welcomes final investment decision on ITS
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/383227