Your $1m inheritance is locked for 10 years in one company, which one ?

Okay. I'll have a go at .... but please note that I'm posting under a name that reflects my qualifications to express an opinion (or lack thereof).

My criteria are based on the idea that if I have to lock up a large (for me) amount of money for 10 years, I should be more concerned with controlling downside risk than searching for the largest amount of potential upside. Like Mark Twain, I am more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money.

Relevant factors:

1. the risk of disruption through new competition, technological change, environmental factors or regulations
2. the existence of some kind of defensive moat
3. a good track record in delivering for shareholders – in particular an expectation that dividends will grow enough to at least offset inflation
4. acceptable valuation - particularly bearing in mind the importance of compounding dividends over a ten year period – I would like a starting net dividend yield above the current rate of inflation
5. I would prefer a company that is unlikely to need to raise further capital from shareholders - companies which raise money through placings damage shareholder value in the process and, as a non-resident, most NZ companies will not let me participate in rights issues
6. leverage should be low given expectations of rising interest rates

There are some very good to excellent companies which have track records in delivering value to shareholders and which (quite rightly) get a lot of attention on this board: MFT, RYM, SUM, IFT, ATM, POT, FRE and AIA among others

For my purposes, I have eliminated the retirement sector from consideration because of (in some cases) high valuations which assume a lot of future growth, because of vulnerability to regulatory "reform" and because of the potential for new competition to enter the market.

I have eliminated MFT and ATM on valuation grounds.

I have eliminated anything involving biological products for obvious reasons.

I have eliminated the electricity companies because of the potential for technological disruption and regulatory change. IFT is excluded for the same reason (although the diversification makes it tempting).

SKC was eliminated because of its debt levels.

Finance companies and consumer discretionary are too boom/bust for the purposes of this exercise. This takes out HBL, TNR and MCK.

I'm left with four companies which have at least partial monopolies: AIA, POT, SPN and MMH. AIA and POT are very expensive. SPN has no volume. So I am left with MMH which offers a trailing yield of 2.9% net/4.1% gross, trades on a trailing PE of 21 (a bit high but I will take it) and offers a coherent growth strategy (benefitting from the limitations of Port of Auckland, the growth in international trade (Trump notwithstanding), population growth in and north of Auckland and the use of the land bank adjacent to their existing operations. I'm assuming current political tailwinds are a short term thing and not relying on them.

The only problem: the shares are thinly traded so it could take several weeks to invest the full $1 million.

For me, a plan B would involving buying shares in WBC or ANZ which are listed on NZ and immediately transferring them from the NZ to the Australian share register where the Australian franking credits would eliminate NRWT I would have deducted if I left them on the NZ register. Compounding a 6.5-7.0% dividend yield (more if there is a discount on the DRP???) for 10 years should handily beat inflation. (And, yes, I am aware that this contradicts what I said above about not choosing a finance company.)

Looking forward to seeing what others come up with.

Raz Corp, with Trumps tax cuts is in high growth mode and I know whats happening on the inside. As you are all decent people I will sort a private placement for your inheritance as well. If we are talking NZX then RYM..why.. not just because of their track record but with customers that can afford it..they are the brand of choice.

FPH. Proven and well managed company with a long history of delivery. Is in a fast growing market with a well known and much liked product. Great FX hedging for Kiwis.

First off POT. Monopoly that will just keep on growing, s/p too.. Fabulous assets and natural harbour, perfectly placed. Room for expansion still and better tech keeps shortening turn around ship times.
Bigger ships ,11000 containers size now!! Fantastic management and an NZ essential service. Has gone up 4-500% in 10 years, will keep growing next ten years, maybe not so much.
Lowest risk stock around with a huge moat to match imo. May not increase as much as a few others but a sleep well at night stock for 10 years, it fits the bill, so price to me is way down the list of importance.. Least likely to be interfered with by govt and regs. Never cheap for all the above reasons etc.

IFT They have a good range of investments meaning that although you are investing in just One stock your eggs are not in such a small basket as with some of the others which have more company specific risk.

Unlike most other NZ stocks the current price is not overly stretched, and they have some great growth potential in their portfolio yet are not valued as a growth stock.

I like risk and growth, ill pass on the dividends. Not sure if GNX/NXT are allowed being on the ASX.
Both compliment each other, cant have data without lots of electricity.

Cant have any cloud services without electricity or data.

All businesses/people want both products.

Both will be consumed during any global downturn.

Both are cashed up and young companies.

Flip a coin for the one, 👍

Google,Amazon,Apple,Nvidia,Microsoft, take your pick but best of the best over 10 years, Apple and Google.

No expert thats for sure and really no particular reason for hold these shares apart from that they appear to go about their business in a quiet manner and continue to pay a divie(rather small).
CDI

RYM - track record + future demographics

For this exercise I'll look at a bit of history, a bit of today and a bit of the future.

In my Portfolio One I have one stock that has given me 2,350% capital growth plus dividends since I've owned it.

In the past few days I have received a nice dividend in my bank account. I have also received a nice fat Annual report that offers me lots of bedtime reading.

Alas like others I am getting older and I'm a demographic that needs to be taken into account - especially with my new found $1m inheritance.

All up theres only one choice. And thats Ryman. A proven company that still faces a pretty certain future.

edit SP at time of post was $12.07