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Quote:
Originally Posted by
dabsman
How I've looked at this market is I hold a few shares that are very high conviction either for growth or dividend. I've used it to average down and have ended up holding substantially more for the similar level of investment. I have also jumped into another couple of shares I have been watching for some time but have felt were overvalued. I'm not a trader in any way but I've sold and repurchased the same shares. I now own 30% more OCA shares for less capital tied up and a similar percentage of HGH for similar money laid down. I didn't sell my WBC shares (doh!) but brought the average price down to $20 (now looking at massive DRP growth long term). I look at it as a time for housekeeping/spring cleaning. Getting rid of ones that have done their dash (MET) and buying others I've had my eye on a while (BRM) as an example
I was also very heavily exposed to the retirment sector so will slowly unwind that in this market too
I also moved my Kiwisaver into conservative about 2 weeks ago and back into growth last friday. I've lost 6% on these funds and the fund hasn't booked in the big gains the last 3 days. I should be up quite a bit. If I left as is (like the experts are saying) then the fund I moved out of lost 34% from when I moved. Lucky break maybe?
What I have learnt is I know very little about buying and selling timing. I tended to sell on days where there was big drops and buy on days when it was rising. If I could have a bit more skill just on this timing I think I'd be 10% better off currently. I'm not meaning trying to time the top or the bottom just better execution of the plan - i.e. I decide to sell. Do I drip amount in to a rising day or dump it and move on. Reading depth better is something I need to understand better. I also ended up buying more than I wanted one day purley because I forgot about a buy order - noob!
Lol - don't feel bad. I am a relative newby to 'investing' and put in some really low buy offers (at the time) and then got carried away with work.
Forgot about the orders and now am the proud owner of KMD and a whole lot more OCA shares - oops.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Balance
Everyone super negative?
Don't think so, Ggcc - no doomsday scenario from some of us - realistic scenarios.
Must say there are some seriously doomsday posters however on this forum!
bull... has been very quiet of late. Something of a relief.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Balance
Everyone super negative?
Don't think so, Ggcc - no doomsday scenario from some of us - realistic scenarios.
Must say there are some seriously doomsday posters however on this forum!
A lot of people in commerce i deal with do not believe this will last longer than 8 weeks or not result in a decent recovery when it concludes, that is in contrast to the medical perspective I hear, so who will be right....
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
jonu
bull... has been very quiet of late. Something of a relief.
I hope bull is OK and hasn’t been struck down with something
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Bull
"my money is on a bear bounce , shares are bouncing 10 - 20 - 30 % on such low volume which helps support this theory to me. anyway i wont be posting much for a while got family to look after at home and support so take care everyone."
His posts are essential for some balance imo.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
dabsman
How I've looked at this market is I hold a few shares that are very high conviction either for growth or dividend. I've used it to average down and have ended up holding substantially more for the similar level of investment. I have also jumped into another couple of shares I have been watching for some time but have felt were overvalued.....
IMHO you are doing exactly the right thing and I've been doing the same thing.
It's a great time lower your average hold SP on high conviction holds, realise a few profits, cash up and wait for opportunities.
Bit like the orchardist doing winter pruning in preparation for the spring to come.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Joshuatree
Bull
"my money is on a bear bounce , shares are bouncing 10 - 20 - 30 % on such low volume which helps support this theory to me. anyway i wont be posting much for a while got family to look after at home and support so take care everyone."
His posts are essential for some balance imo.
Agreed!!!!
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NZX has perfectly rejected the resistance at the previous high point set on the 18th, but still in an hourly uptrend.
My base case is that this is just a bull trap as I really don't think people appreciate the economic impacts we are going to see. Letting the market decided whether I should be bull or bear though.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Joshuatree
Bull
"my money is on a bear bounce , shares are bouncing 10 - 20 - 30 % on such low volume which helps support this theory to me. anyway i wont be posting much for a while got family to look after at home and support so take care everyone."
His posts are essential for some balance imo.
Wishing him and his family all the best.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
sb9
Wishing him and his family all the best.
Bull abdicated from the forum during the lockdown as he is with family , his absence is not unexpected.
Stay safe from the rona, everybody - apparently that's what the kids call it.
which is only funny coz I actually have an Aunt Rona who lives in SUM village SUM where.
Edit: I'm hopeful of a quicker recovery than most folk , but don't think the worst is over yet. And it could go bad still. As in really bad. But it probably wont. Who knows.
But business is built on optimism so one must keep digging to find it.
But I am still quite weary of the claw, so have mainly been speculating playing the market as I see it from hour to hour.
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What happened to the market, went for a walk most stocks were up 5-10% by time arrived home they all red.
Thought people were being a little too optimistic, traders would have made a killing last Three days, but you have to be pretty crazy leaving money on the table going onto the weekend.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Balance
Everyone super negative?
Don't think so, Ggcc - no doomsday scenario from some of us - realistic scenarios.
Must say there are some seriously doomsday posters however on this forum!
True maybe not everyone, just a lot of posters
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Reality is an abstract concept
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I saw somewhere bull is back for DOW and Canadian stocks. When market is up there are analysts to upgrade stocks. How did Dow Jones Industrial Average go up by more than 20% from recent low on March 23 despite gloomy outlook for job market? According to market analysts, this week's action has sent some encouraging signals and the market has already factored the bad news into the price. One thing is visible in global stock markets. Irrespective of corona there or not, investors are looking for individual stocks. Going forward, will the value stocks beat growth stocks?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Valuegrowth
I saw somewhere bull is back for DOW and Canadian stocks. When market is up there are analysts to upgrade stocks. How did Dow Jones Industrial Average go up by more than 20% from recent low on March 23 despite gloomy outlook for job market? According to market analysts, this week's action has sent some encouraging signals and the market has already factored the bad news into the price. One thing is visible in global stock markets. Irrespective of corona there or not, investors are looking for individual stocks. Going forward, will the value stocks beat growth stocks?
Maybe some value stocks will beat growth stocks in the short term through price action, but story will probably stay the same, value stocks great for 10 years and modest returns.
Proper active stock analysis of growth companies will and always have yield significantly higher returns. Obviously picking bad growth stocks will be bad like always