Tomorrow? What’s the rush. Next few weeks will be BRUTAL
Printable View
Everyone getting the virus quickly is not a good thing for the markets, economy or humanity. No matter how you frame it we cannot let that happen. We don't know how long our immune antibodies will last against this particular virus, it could be forever or just months. Imagine if 50% of the population gets it with millions of deaths and we don't even develop long lasting immunity. Going for a rapid burn out or herd immunity solution will be devastating, millions of people will die and health systems would be completely overrun, imagine the chaos in poorer less developed nations.
A full scale lock-down is the only way to beat this, fortunately for NZ and OCA we appear to be flattening the curve with 3 consecutive days of slowing growth and that's not even allowing enough time to take into account the impact of the L4 lockdown. If tomorrows numbers are down again on today's I suspect OCA SP will close higher. OCA at $0.40 was pricing in a US equivalent disaster and fortunately we've had strong leadership who've been able to make the pragmatic scientific based decision to lock-down quickly. I suspect as long as we can maintain low local spread and return to BAU slowly maintaining strict boarder measures OCA will be just fine and the SP will soon return to $1+.
Deleted (off topic)
This post has nothing very little to do with OCA, but I feel this particular thread has attracted a smarter / positive crowd compared to some of those dominating the on more appropriate threads.
FWIW, I talked to 2 of my kids with over the weekend and as a result they switched their KiwiSaver from "balanced" to "growth" funds.
For any oldies here , it took 2 tick boxes and 1 minute.
Without doubt this "ease of switching" has partially contributed to the panic selling we saw last week (OCA diving to 40cents��) .
Anyway just sharing in case other parents on this forum also think this a good idea.
I agree that it is a good idea not to forget to move Kiwi saver funds more towards growth as soon as we are close to the bottom. Whether this is already now - I can't really say.
Discl: I plan to spread my conservative Kiwi saver powder over time ... but to be honest - I took the first step in moving part of my conservative funds into growth funds last week. It is in my view likely not yet the bottom, but it is tough to bottom pick - and I am pretty sure that in a handful of years I will be quite content with the current purchase prices ...
The number of cases in retirement homes (and prisons) in USA is rapidly increasing. Every week Trump and his merry men piss around and try to ignore the science doubles the number of deaths they will get. Some states have locked down, but the good doctor is now guessing 200,000 dead. The flow through from the rest home stories in USA will have some impact here, but I have been buying the aged care sector in small quantities.
He is assuming that there are more lock downs and other mitigation measures in place. "Only" 2977 died in 9/11 and look at the huge irrational ramifications of that. OTT airport inspections, bombing of nations that had nothing to do with it, locking up of innocent people without trial. The vast majority of CV19 the deaths in USA will be due to the anti science brigade and political incompetence. Whether they will be held accountable is another thing. Just like the American reaction to 911 became imposed as "best practise" , so the rest home industry here may suffer doing unnecessary things that are imposed as "best practise".
Good post, Maverick. I've thought for some time now that the wild swings in the market - not just OCA, but mentioning them keeps this thread on topic! -have been aggravated by the abrupt movements in and out of the different risk categories of Kiwisaver. I don't think that this is the time to get too clever trying to finesse one's savings this way.