Thanks for the explaination.
I can see lots of other positives for the SP-NZ population-5 million and rising,lower interest rates likely to be long-lasting,MET SP rising,Ryman result etc.
Feels oversold and like you looking forward to July .
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Some advice sought please. I've completed the first iteration of financial statement analysis to get the valuation and set the following parameters. is it too much/little? The outlook is for 5-years.
riskfree rate (T-Bill) - 3.5%
Market Risk premium - 7%
Equity Beta 1.2 (in 2019 it was 1.1)
So, cost of capital is 11.90%
I am referring to the rights of the resident patient and next of kin, not to the "right" of visitors to just pop in for a casual visit to a resident. Of course every facility should always minimise the risk of spreading infections and viruses.
Preventing next of kin and those holding power of attorney from access to the very ill and those at end of life is serious denial. Provided they use PPE and other precautions taken, I see no reason for such a denial.
Bastardisation of a thread on the old twitter (bored analyst banter) -
is Value investing is buying what you think is $1.20 for 90 cents?
And then complaining why everyone else doesn’t think your 90 cents is worth $1.20
No value investing is buying what you think is worth $1.20 for 90 cents but it turns out you bought something worth 70 cents.
MRP varies over time so saying it’s been 6% since Adam as a boy not quite right.
These days a lot of real investment managers and finance people are add an additional risk premium, especially in the short term, to take account of the inherent uncertainty in future outcomes. They keep this specific additional risk premium as a separate item so they can assess what impact it has.
im waiting for .65 then ... highly unlikely ... but then i would not have though this whole WWP was a likely.
Likewise you could argue with interest rates at 200 year lows a market risk premium of 6% is no longer warranted especially given TRINA, (there really is no alternative to stocks).
What else are you going to do, buy corporate bonds or bank term deposits at 1.8% ?
Back to OCA, I wonder what EQT will offer for OCA when they have finished the MET takeover and look to combine these companies and reap maybe $10m per annum in synergies ? $1.30 ?
yes CNBC gave us TRINA about a month ago? well the burn from the virus in the states is out of control and we may see some big sells off that simple force the market down.
since the only stock we sold in the march sell off was AIR.. im sure you are ahead of us in the queue which we are not in yet. We only now have one portfolio holding a small amount. We sold most at 1.04.
That’s why these things are all rather subjective and there’s no right answer.
For each individual MRP is different as it’s related to what return they desire
I suppose 6% is about right for these days
Of course if one was interested one could work out the implied MRP as it is today.
Cost of capital is the variable you twiddle to suit your agenda. Bit like discount rate (ie as an input rather than derived).
For OCA I suspect some investors are happy to hold a bit of money in a stock that pays a relatively stable 5-6% div on the macro basis the capital/business is more likely to grow than shrink over 5 years regardless of some calculation riddled with assumptions.
"stable Div" thats what we have wondered for a while now...we think its been paying out too high a Div.
The dog might ask SUM hard questions at the forthcoming special meeting for MET about who the other two interested parties were and if they're still in the frame or was this just a load of "creative talk" to spur EQT along ?
Interesting situation developing with OCA...it seems the daily share price performance shows a fairly strong correlation with the number of new virus cases in N.Z.
Zero new cases the share price goes up a bit and when there's 2 or more new cases the share price goes down a bit. Is the market really this fickle or is this apparent share price reaction a figment of my sometimes over active imagination ?
Dont know,but how about you and your pack going paws up and doing a possum covid symptom cluster; keep one eye open on the share price on a screen:D.
I thought that was an interesting question, but not sure whether this shows a correlation, if anything it was negatively correlated as the case counts rose, so was the share price rising. Then fell as the case counts declined, then rose as case counts went to zero. Now it's jumping around for no apparent reason related to case counts.
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