Originally Posted by
Aaron
I would be interested in peoples opinions for the next 12-24 months.
1/ NZX, ASX and S&P 500. Will there be a big crash to test the March 2009 bottom. (From what I read I think markets will drop close the March lows sometime before the end of the year. This is based on governments taxing more and spending less to finally address the debt problem. This will affect economic growth and company profits)
2/ Interest rates are going up (Fast for Greek bonds and SCF debentures). If banks aren't lending then companies will need to issue bonds/debentures and will need to compete for investors improving future yields. (This will also negatively affect shares as bond yields get more attractive and less risk as they take priority over shares if the company craps out)
If I understand things correctly the US will want interest rates low to encourage inflation to inflate some of their debt away.)
3/ Inflation/deflation what is going to happen here (I am obviously picking asset deflation for shares and maybe NZ & Aussie houses short term) but if there is tonnes more money in the system won't this automatically cause inflation.
What does the next two years hold and what should I invest in. I think I'm too late for precious metals (gold) and don't know where to go to invest in gold anyway.