RYM - Ryman Healthcare

Have quietly been building a holding over the last few years and am suprised doing an archive search that this one hardly recieves any mentions.
Seems one of the best and safest long term holds on the NZSE cant think of any better really.

Seems to me that the more risky and hopeless it is the more people here want to talk about it, one only has to think back to aquaria 21 and ITC to see that to be the case.

I have been avoiding these forums over the past year or so because i found they were leading me to make more purchases / sales than was often prudent.
In the age of the internet patience and quietly building a big innings (like thorpe !! ) seems to be out of fashion now, instead has been replaced by a slogging mentality where the object is to hit a six into blue sky (like mcmillan), And we all know hes often out for a duck.

Ratkin-if you are going to talk about shares then don't expect much response on this forum-I have almost given up on it.Posters generally prefer nonsense topics and this site has gone downhill rapidly over the last 6 mths.

I recently started a thread on Turners & Growers-a coy that will list shortly with $1b revenue,controlled by GPG who are restructuring the group-and did not get one response.

IMO RYM should be a good long term hold in a growth sector-lots of "old folks"coming on stream over the next 20 yrs.Like you I have held over the last yr or so.I think it will do well.

Good points skinny. Wondering what exposure they have if property prices were to dive, i.e. what is their debt secured against and could they be asked for more money?

Census figures may give a good indication of 'clients' likely to come on stream on a year by year basis.

Tend to agree with Skinny and think that you've done well to get in early. If market tanks here and interest rates drop then it might be good bolt hole.

Maybe the admin should include a non share folder in the off topic section for people that dont want to talk about shares.

Good points skinny-I guess the main risk is with the new projects.However,currently around 450,000 people are over 65-this is expected to grow to 924,000 by 2026.

The aged care sector has a problem with the new Holidays Act. Increased costs of sick & holiday leave, are significant, & the Govt, care subsidy, has not increased for many years. It probably affects RYM & MET less than others, because of their "retirement," rather than "aged care" emphasis.

Well said Oracle.
'Aged care' is a real mine field. Funding is more & more reliant on Govt, especially when the qualifying for subsidy is exempt from asset testing kicks in - already signalled by Govt. Thus unless co-payment from the client is possible (Govt may bar or limit this), the 'aged care' provider is in dire strait.
I.E. increasing costs, 'capped' funding = diminishing profits and/or dimishing services/standards.

Foodee-could you explain in more detail please as I don'tfollow.

KJ

Go to the Abano website, & read their May newsletter, the last page!

Think there was a mention on here about a company going round buying up private rest homes with a view to listing. Indicates that a third listed rest home provider may be on the horizon. A crowded marketplace?

Definitely a growth area, but between MET and Ryman, who's going to pick a winner/dominant player? Upsides for both of them.

KJ
Basically let us say there are 3 stages in aging:-
[1] Retirement
[2] 'Aged care' - used to be nursing care and leading to [3]
[3] Long term hospital care

[1] Retirment - retirement villages privately funded - a niche property play.

[2] 'Aged care' - with the signalled abolition of asset testing Govt will be the main funder - trusts will be less relevant for those who have use them to ring fence their estate. The aged care provider will feel the full force of the Govt 'capped budget' concept. To minimise 'profitering' the Govt will probably bar the provider from charging the client over and above the Govt 'subsidy', that is to say the funding is deemed to be full payment for the care. This capped budget takes no notice of any increase in costs (most of them are because of Govt's policies in other areas, like holiday pay!). All these will lead to erosion of profits, services and standards.

[3] Just a progression from [2] except more costly to run.

OK this is a growth sector requiring many thousands of beds in the not too distant future, but who wants to provide the beds if there is no meaningful margins.
Be that as it may 'aged care' is an essential part of the health system. Just maybe it is 'too hard' for the private sector.
Lots to think about and one day I may be a client!

disc: not a holder

Great post, foodee. Many thanks. And to ratkin for kicking it off.

The sector has obvious growth capability and would seem to have investment potential but you've given us plenty to think about. As I've had occasion to say elsewhere - but all too rarely, I fear - this is what ST is/should be all about

I have had some experience as secretary for a charitable village and rest home operator. Small operators cannot make a go of it. A rest home with less than 40 beds is not viable. Elderly folks like the best of both worlds - independence while they are able then with progressivly more support as they become more vulnerable. Rymans are doing this and they can make quite a good profit out of the cottages side because residents have an average time of about 5 years then rymans can resell the right to occupy to someone else. The profits made here make the higher-cost parts of the operation worth while.
Iam a new boy in the shares game but RYM was first on my list about 8 mths ago and I am pleased with them.:)

I will not be buying more at the present price, however sometime in the next four months there will probably be another good topping up opportunity.
Ryman can go months between announcements and the price often shows some weakness simply due to lack of interest.
The company quietly grows at a steady pace without attracting hype, thats why i like it.
Might not be so many opportunities to pick it up at a bargain now though as its come onto the radar of the brokerage houses and funds

Anyonw going to the AGM in the crowne plaza ?