How low does the dollar go?

Worst case? It wont go below 50c against the US Dollar??

Maybe in the 59-62 cent range?

wow, seriously!? I would be pretty surprised that low!

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Originally Posted by Entrep

wow, seriously!? I would be pretty surprised that low!

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that figure was worst case stuff.

Hoping it doesnt drop below 60c usa. A real weak dollar would be horrible.

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Originally Posted by brettdale

that figure was worst case stuff.

Hoping it doesnt drop below 60c usa. A real weak dollar would be horrible.

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Given what happened with the GBP and the FTSE after the Brexit referendum, it might just be time to go shopping!

Just how much FX savvy is there in the Coalition Finance team ...

I can't see it plummeting. Economies perform despite the govt, not because of it. I predict a gentle tizzy at most. This is by no means on the same scale a BREXIT or similar, although it might feel like that to some :-)

well I think it will go to 68 US cents at least and maybe 65 at worst, but probably not that low.

You young turks need to go back to when Winnie was Treasurer - he managed to talk it down by a material number (trying to find a chart that'll show 1996)

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Originally Posted by Xerof

You young turks need to go back to when Winnie was Treasurer - he managed to talk it down by a material number (trying to find a chart that'll show 1996)

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here ya go
Attachment 9249

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Originally Posted by peat

well I think it will go to 68 US cents at least and maybe 65 at worst, but probably not that low.

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That would be a good start :)

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Originally Posted by Xerof

You young turks need to go back to when Winnie was Treasurer - he managed to talk it down by a material number (trying to find a chart that'll show 1996)

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That was the US "strong dollar" era, when the US were heavily touting the benefits of their own strong dollar (despite behaving in a way at the time, that should have seen their $ hammered). That trend was little to do with Winston, and a lot to do with US policy and rhetoric at the time.

Disc: Not as young as I would like ....

Eventually, NZ dollar should fall below 50C in its next cycle. It could happen in 2018/19. It is due for fall after staying strong for a long period. In the current cycle already it topped and has started its down trend. Once it recorded low of 0.39 in October of 2000.

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Originally Posted by MARKETWINNER

Eventually, NZ dollar should fall below 50C in its next cycle. It could happen in 2018/19. It is due for fall after staying strong for a long period. In the current cycle already it topped and has started its down trend. Once it recorded low of 0.39 in October of 2000.

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It could fall that quickly?

Below 50c in 2018?? Your taking the mikey? right??

Im a pessimist, but I dont see it getting below 50c, that fast.

With a new growth orientated RB Governor probably with ‘managing’ unemployment as part of the new manadate along with Kiwibuild building zillions of new houses surely the consequences of this will inevitably lead to a rising currency

And has any government / RBNZ efforts to ‘lower’ the exchange rate ever worked in NZ, except straight out devaluation?

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundam...-OfftofDS.html

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Originally Posted by brettdale

Worst case? It wont go below 50c against the US Dollar??

Maybe in the 59-62 cent range?

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62.5 cents per Sept/October 2015 appears to be a reasonable mark. A weak dollar would be very painful for $XRO in particular with high infrastructural costs on AWS.