Hit 30 on the ASX today. Seems like there's more demand and less supply over there.
Was hoping to average down, but should I average up?
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Hit 30 on the ASX today. Seems like there's more demand and less supply over there.
Was hoping to average down, but should I average up?
Sky offers customers 'holidays' from Sport packages until July 1
https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/120625303/coronavirus-sky-offers-customers-payment-holidays-on-sport-packages-until-july-1
Quote:
" A very small number have ended up with a pause on their Sky Sport subscription, although we're finding the majority of customers are very keen to have Sky at the moment while they're at home and looking for entertainment."
Quote:
"Almost everyone is keen to keep their Sky services at this time, given the huge range of content we are offering during the lockdown period, and there will be more to come."
I see Sky are starting an Olympics Channel
That’s cool
The bond market seems to think they might go bust. SKT020 bonds due for repayment 31/3/2021 now trading at 40% yield. Thoughts?
I think what happened was that the market cap dropped below the total value of the bond level, which triggered automatic algorithmic selling.
Also, with the exception of Friday, volume has dried up, making it difficult to make a market, thus causing volatile pricing.
There's definitely uncertainty, but I don't think the market is (not yet anyway) thinking Sky will go bust.
Well, clearly those who are selling their bonds for such a low price (thereby pushing up the yield so fantastically) are worried that Sky won't be able to repay the $100M in a year.
At this time I don't think you can look to market behaviour and 'price action' in the financial markets for any kind of sense though.
After all, on Monday the market said Sky TV was only worth about $80M (only a little more than Sky paid to purchase RugbyPass!). By Friday the market said Sky TV was actually worth $130M (an increase of 62.5%) - even though nothing had really changed.
I am pleased that Sky seem to have limited the subscriber losses. I can see how existing customers would be keen to keep their existing packages if they can get more entertainment channels 'on the house' for the next 3 months. When things go back to normal, some customers may even choose to continue to subscribe to those extra packages if they enjoyed the content.
A friend of mine who subscribes to Sky Sport NOW received an email with a promo code from Sky to get 3 months of NEON for free due to coronavirus.
Still waiting for my email with promo code.
They are now trading at a 50% yield. Interesting times. Plenty available at 50% as well. Does that mean the market is giving SKY about a 50% chance of folding? Sounds about right actually. At 30 cents per SKY share that is probably pricing in a 50% probability of collapse. If SKY were to survive then the SP should be above the 60's. IF you were going to enter into SKY what would be the best instrument now?
Really enjoying my free movies though. Good on you SKY.
I wonder if they will still sell OSB.
That would give some extra cash and also reduce OPEX moving forward.
Their ability to produce live local events is no longer a competitive advantage. Or a very narrow one.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2020/0...siness-lending
Hopefully these measures will make the possibility of Sky working with the banks to ensure it can use banking facilities to repay the bonds a real possibility.
As I have mentioned before, I think a capital raise at this point in time would be far too destructive to current shareholders who can't participate.
For the record, should Sky do a discounted rights offer - I would personally be in a position where I can fully participate. And, no doubt, it would probably be to my financial advantage to do so.
However I have a genuine concern for the poor b@stards who have paid north of, say, $1.50 a share... and have supported the company over the years yet would be absolutelty decimated by a capital raise with the SP being so low if they don't have available funds to participate.
I don't feel like I really 'win' if my business partners lose so heavily.
You are of course assuming that Sky survive MistaT.
They were already under pressure prior to the virus issue with other providers chipping away at their Sport offering.
No live sport.
People with no/lowered income will need to carefully assess where they spend their $’s.
Most I think will consider they need broadband.
But SKY with no live sport.....not so sure.
Especially with so many lower cost options. Netflix DISNEY YouTube etc.
Not for me.
SKY's near term future potentially foreshadowed by the recent KMD announcement...
If I am wrong and Sky goes bankrupt then I will have a lot of egg on my face.
If I am right though, and Sky will continue as a going concern (however with much reduced earnings)...then the current market cap makes zero sense, and a capital raise at this point should be an absolute last resort.
Let's say the GAAP earnings fall all the way to $10M a year. We know that, due to the massive depreciation and amortisation charges Sky are able to charge, you can conservatively add $40M to the GAAP earnings to get a view of how much the underlying earnings are for the business owner. In this example, it Owner Earnings would = $50M.
Even if the market was incredibly pessimistic about the business and was only prepared to pay 5 times the underlying earnings... that would be $250M. Over double the current market cap.
Hell, Mr Market could only be prepared to pay 3 times underlying earnings that the market cap would still be higher than what it is now.
Given my confidence that Sky will survive their current challeges, do I think they will be able to generate GAAP earnings of at least $10M a year out into the future. Why yes, yes I do.
They agreed to paid $62m for rugby pass in august last year seems a lot of money now,does anyone know how it's going?