MCY Mercury NZ ( MRP Mighty River Power)

Plenty of water up there at the moment - guess MRP is not at risk of drought for the time being.

Wow...$2.16 today. Lots of water in the lake !
Wonder where the price might be if they weren't trying to support it ! ?
Hope they leave more on the table with Meridian for the punters.

Wow...$2.16 today. Lots of water in the lake !
Wonder where the price might be if they weren't trying to support it ! ?
Hope they leave more on the table with Meridian for the punters.

With a buy back underway, once this stock comes out from under its current selling pressure and starts to climb, it will soon settle into an upward trend, IMHO.

I'm watching daily with an expectation it will head north before it drops to $2.

BC

Is the weakest ever price explained by people selling MRP to rebalance their portfolio in light of the Meridian float or is the market sufferring fatigue from power company floats generally...and this on the day the American's announce they've sorted their B.S. for a while.
Doesn't bode well for the future of MRP's price in my opinion.

If people lose money on Meridian the Government will have to do a Macca's deal to float Genesis. (Buy one share get one free), or here's a novel idea, float the thing at a realistic price earnings multiple instead of being so bloody greedy.

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Originally Posted by RTM

Wow...$2.16 today. Lots of water in the lake !
Wonder where the price might be if they weren't trying to support it ! ?
Hope they leave more on the table with Meridian for the punters.

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The buyback does not add that much support on a daily basis but over time it will soak up weaker hands. IMO the weakness is more to do with funds looking to swap to MEL and freeing up funds rather than over-allocating to power companies.

My guess is MRP will be $2.30 by the end of October.

MRP looks as if it is a well run company. It supplies electricity to the North Island. Its Geothermal generators run 24/7, supplying the base load. The Hydro dams on the river supply additional power when required. They are switched on and off.
A further factor for MRP is that it is not reliant on the Cook Strait Cable. Nor very long cable lengths to supply its customers.
Anything under $2.25 must be a 'buy'. Why it went to $2.17 today is beyond me.

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Originally Posted by mouse

MRP looks as if it is a well run company. It supplies electricity to the North Island. Its Geothermal generators run 24/7, supplying the base load. The Hydro dams on the river supply additional power when required. They are switched on and off.
A further factor for MRP is that it is not reliant on the Cook Strait Cable. Nor very long cable lengths to supply its customers.
Anything under $2.25 must be a 'buy'. Why it went to $2.17 today is beyond me.

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The hog is trying to get this straight.

MRP is "well run". Opinion.

Supplies energy to NI. Yes.

Geothermal 24/7. Yes.

CS cable. Yes.

How does the above lead one to the conclusion that $2.25 is good value?

$2.15 close today says Mr Market disagrees with you.

The hog presumes you were lining up to soak up anything under $2.25 today?

I'll be buying MRP on the way up from around $2. Better value IMHO than the over-marketed, over-hyped Meridian.

BC

Factor in the latest poll shows a change of government will happen next year!

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Originally Posted by warthog

The hog is trying to get this straight.

MRP is "well run". Opinion.

Supplies energy to NI. Yes.

Geothermal 24/7. Yes.

CS cable. Yes.

How does the above lead one to the conclusion that $2.25 is good value?

$2.15 close today says Mr Market disagrees with you.

The hog presumes you were lining up to soak up anything under $2.25 today?

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As a maintenance engineer, at least in my previous life, I have to weigh up how close the customers are to the supply chain. Each extra link in the chain provides an additional concern. The fact that MRP is not reliant on the Cook Strait Cable becomes important, plus the very long DC link for Meridan is important. All links need maintenance and can fail. MRP equally relies on the Grid. But it is shorter. So less reliance on it.
Which brings me to Hanmer. I was in the Hot Pools. Chatting to a few Maori chaps from Timaru. Who were working maintaining the link. They have a good head for heights. To stop being 'Racist' the Company decided to employ a Whitey to also do the job. The Maoris were suspected of hunting Wild Pigs in the Firms Time. So Whitey went with them.
He got to the top of the pylon, onto the arm. Then froze. Could not move. So they tied him onto the cross arm and sent for the Fire Service to rescue him. They used a very long rope. The Rope Went to the ground. A few chaps down below were holding the rope.
The frozen chap relaxed a bit. Help was on its way.
My Maori Mate then,

Pushed Whitey off the arm. He dropped say 5 metres and he was then lowered to the ground.
What could the Fire Service Do?

Today, of course, we would need Health & Safety to advise.
I have now bought another lot of MRP to balance my power stations. Two thirds North Island, one third South Island.

Enjoy the Week-end. Mouse.

mmm....probably a stupid question...why does the Direct broking site display transactions at 3.50 ..yes I should know...

Accidently I now have 3.600 shares in MRP at a price of $8,400 and 3,600 shares in Meridian for $3,600 down and $1,800 in the future. So 3,600 shares in Meridian for $5,400. The question now is which will make more cash, which will perform better. I think dividends received have to be included so I will try to update this every six months.
MY VIEW is that MRP is a better long term investment than Meridian.

I'm in the same boat currently holding 3000 MRP shares. 2000 from IPO(2.50) and 1000 at 2.16. 3000 shares at 7160.00.
4750 MELCA shares 4750 with 2375 due in 18 months total 7125.00.

Weather experts think its going to be pretty dry in the south this summer. However Lakes are pretty full at the moment, might be an opportunity to top up MELCA if it stays dry. I think any hope of MRP going further down is over thanks to the buy back.

Although I really don't care about weather right down. What I care most about is that the w**ker Cunliffe doesn't get in Government.

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Originally Posted by PartyPooper

I'm in the same boat currently holding 3000 MRP shares. 2000 from IPO(2.50) and 1000 at 2.16. 3000 shares at 7160.00.
4750 MELCA shares 4750 with 2375 due in 18 months total 7125.00.

Weather experts think its going to be pretty dry in the south this summer. However Lakes are pretty full at the moment, might be an opportunity to top up MELCA if it stays dry. I think any hope of MRP going further down is over thanks to the buy back.

Although I really don't care about weather right down. What I care most about is that the w**ker Cunliffe doesn't get in Government.

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Your figures for dollars invested are far better than mine to compare profitability. I am sure that all investors have to have cash in the power generators. Plus that we need to have both South Island and North Island companies.
I THINK that it is better to have more invested in the North Island. The reason for this is,
1/. Meridian have to maintain their canal systems but MRP have the Waikato River maintained mainly free of charge.
2/. MRP are much closer to their customers than Meridian, who have to get their electricity across the Cook Strait. Which all adds hazards and costs.
3/. I THINK, without any coherent reason, that Geothermal generators will have a longer life and less trouble than windmills. BUT, it should be remembered that MRP are using their Geothermal as 'base load', in other words generating with them 24/7, whilst Meridian hope the wind blows!
4/. The point about the Geothermal generators is they are working 24/7. Thus they are earning their keep. The Meridian windmills may never earn their keep. They seem to lose cash overseas. But we might be windier in NZ. Mighty River seem to have made a good choice about investing in base-load generators.

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Originally Posted by PartyPooper

Although I really don't care about weather right down. What I care most about is that the w**ker Cunliffe doesn't get in Government.

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Don't vote Labour/green for next year election. My family has fairly large holding both in MRP and MELCA, quite sure will only vote NATS.

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Originally Posted by mouse

Your figures for dollars invested are far better than mine to compare profitability. I am sure that all investors have to have cash in the power generators. Plus that we need to have both South Island and North Island companies.
I THINK that it is better to have more invested in the North Island. The reason for this is,
1/. Meridian have to maintain their canal systems but MRP have the Waikato River maintained mainly free of charge.
2/. MRP are much closer to their customers than Meridian, who have to get their electricity across the Cook Strait. Which all adds hazards and costs.

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I agree with your points and if MRP was still around 2.15 I'd be very happy to top up. But with the political risk at the moment not so much.

......MIGHTY RIVER HAS TO BE THE SAFER "BET" AT THE MOMENT (price underpinned by the Share Buy-Back Scheme)

Weeellll! Mighty River still way below issue price. Meridian given away, but only a small upwards move of ten cents.
So where are we?
Plus Where is Govt., who propose to sell Genesis Energy. Which Rod Oram said this morning, on the National Programme, is now unsellable. Who will buy? Plus we have the problem of threatened political interferance.
The other factor is that Genesis has some? coal fired power stations. How do you abandon them? I live in Christchurch and thankfully have not seen a coal fired power station in years. Rod Oram suggested that Meridian could buy-back the Twizel dam which Genesis own.
But Genesis? We wait for John Key. Electricity shares could take a year at least to settle into a predictable price range. I cannot hazard a guess.

MRP are down 12% since listing,while MELCA are up 11%.
I would be selling my loser, and be buying more of my winner if I held both.
[As you would expect I only hold MELCA].lol.