Goldilocks and the 3 Bears (FTSE100, DOW, S&P500
Many investors are commenting on why the NASDAQ is performing better than the S&P500 and DOW. They are waiting for the NASDAQ to correct and fall back in line with the S&P500 & DOW. Are their thinking correct???
Answer:-- maybe not...There are other forces at work which get scant media coverage such as the differing rates of recovery seen in each individual indexed market.
The charts below clearly show that the FTSE, DOW and S&P500 are still in a technical bear market mode and are lagging behind the rest of the worlds indexes which have already signaled a bull recovery....so one could assume that there is a good chance the FTSE, DOW and S&P500 will eventually follow the rest of the world Equities and recover into a new Bull cycle, rather than seeing the rest of the world fall back to match the 3 bears
One thing that's certain ....the Global Equities Market are no longer in tandem (correlated) ...that perfect storm ended in 2008
The charts below show a green line which once crossed (upwards) signals a technical bull market... confirmed with the crossing of the MA200.
On the NZX50 chart I have left in the old downtrend channel as this is interesting...as it may signal that this recent weakness may not be a bull trap but a false break.
As shown on the charts many markets are retesting their technical Bull levels making investors nervous and raising fears of a Bull trap as happened in 1930.
The 3 Bears
Attachment 1744
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The Rest... Post #2
Update...DOW, S&P500 bull market cycle comfirmed ..2 bears have died only one remains
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Hoop
Many investors are commenting on why the NASDAQ is performing better than the S&P500 and DOW. They are waiting for the NASDAQ to correct and fall back in line with the S&P500 & DOW. Are their thinking correct???
Answer:-- maybe not...There are other forces at work which get scant media coverage such as the differing rates of recovery seen in each individual indexed market.
The charts below clearly show that the FTSE, DOW and S&P500 are still in a technical bear market mode and are lagging behind the rest of the worlds indexes which have already signaled a bull recovery....so one could assume that there is a good chance the FTSE, DOW and S&P500 will eventually follow the rest of the world Equities and recover into a new Bull cycle, rather than seeing the rest of the world fall back to match the 3 bears.
Update: - The assumption is correct. As of today's 2+% the DOW and S&P500 have followed the rest of the world and have recovered to comfirm a new Bull market cycle.
One thing that's certain ....the Global Equities Market are no longer in tandem (correlated) ...that perfect storm ended in 2008.
Update: - Most of The worlds Equity indexes are in differing Bull Market phases The Shanghai index being the most mature of those mentioned in this thread.
The charts below show a green line which once crossed (upwards) signals a technical bull market... confirmed with the crossing of the MA200.
On the NZX50 chart I have left in the old downtrend channel as this is interesting...as it may signal that this recent weakness may not be a bull trap but a false break.
Update: - Yes it turned out to be a false downward break.
As shown on the charts many markets are retesting their technical Bull levels making investors nervous and raising fears of a Bull trap as happened in 1930.
Update: - It was no Bull trap as it turned out, so those fears have been subdued for the time being. In actual fact the false trend break downward turned out to be a bear trap as the indexes are now back in a strong uptrend again.
The 3 bears have been reduced to one...the FTSE
The 2 bears that have changed to Goldilocks
DOW broke key 9000 resistance level (now a support level) confirms a primary uptrend (Bull market cycle confirmed**)
The S&P500 broke key 950* resistance level (now a support level) confirms a primary uptrend (Bull market cycle confirmed**)
* some TA purists consider the 1000 resistance level the key level.
** retesting and respecting the new supports needed to reduce the chance of a false break
Is Shanghai still the Global equity index leader?
:)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
belgarion
Shanghai Composite off on a little rip-snorter of run ... What a beauty.
Still snorting Belg...Snorted that much that everyone now knows it's a Bull now. Its just broken its primary bear trend adding another confirmation that it has resumed its Bull Market Cycle.:)
.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...ai25102010.png
Shanghai says ...."there's no good news on the horizion for us sharemarket investors
Well 2.5 years ago we were looking at Shanghai Composite our leading indicator Goldilocks which lead the rest of the worlds equity markets (stock markets) out of the GFC bear market...Since then Shanghai turned first from Goldilocks back into a bear and now the rest of the world are following abeit slowly for the European and American equity markets. So once again....do we have to look to the Asian economic powerhouse to keep showing us the way.....why not...as a leading indicator Shanghai Comp has been excellent so far....
..So with reference to the Shanghai "leading indicator" ....Is the world equitity markets due to change for the better in the next couple of months??....The answer is NO
Unfortunately or fortunately the Chinese are having a week off work this week...as the Shanghai Composite is sitting exactly on a conjuncture. So where to from here????... up or down????... The bear market is 2 years old now, so the bear is very mature and one would expect that a conjuncture at this late bear stage would see the death of the bear....but there are worrying signs as there is no recession in China to signal a new Bull and there are fiscal controls in place to curb growth so to tackle inflation, a signal that a bear cycle will continue. ..For the outcome it seems we will have to wait and see and from the chart we won't have to wait long either.
http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/t...inxc6pza3y.png
Good News ???..positive from Shanghai ...could this be a cyclic market changer?
Tha ASX seems to be more in tune with Shanghai than the S&P500 atm......... both markets are in cyclic bear market cycles.
Both countries avoided negative GDP growth (recession) in 2008 resulting in tighter fiscal controls (theoretical down pressure on Equities) in relation to other global countries.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...ai29022012.png...
Has a copper Time Bomb to kill off the Equity Bull been activated?
A lot of media noise about gold and copper atm
Here's one more bit of noise to add to the collection :)
Not enough evidence...but my chart has picked up a recent curious copper down/equity up divergence ..when this type of divergence last appeared 5 years ago it ended up badly for us Equity investors. Maybe something to keep at the back of your mind ..eh? tick.. tick.. tick.. BOOM
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...rt23042013.png
Dow down again!!!...but this Duck hasn't lined up either yet
I'm a great fan of sentiment indicators as leading indicators ..they have this ability of picking up (or causing) events just before they happen..Personally, I see sentiment indicators as a reflection of Animal Herd survival instinct behaviour.
Todays article Kirk Lindstrom uses economic sentiment indicators and as at 4th August sees no negative turns, thus concluding it probably be another shallow bull market correction and nothing more sinster (steep cyclic reversal)
The Dow Economic Sentiment Index Supports A Higher Market