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My reading of the chart is that a buy is still indicated (beware, scamper is notoriously dodgy at this -- see AIR thread...):
Mft trendline still solidly intact for the last six months -- would need a drop below 235 to break it.
Stochastics good, macd positive.
Shareprice has broken above top Bollinger band -- good.
DMI+ and ADX well above DMI-, DMI+ is above ADX -- all good.
Cautions: ADX has been dropping slightly and is currently flat -- a buy signal is indicated when it rises keeping the DMI+ above it.
RSI is drifting downward, and W%R is at the overbought position.
So, yesterday's close is above Jamp's price channel, and it does indeed look at though the summit keeps getting farther away.
Scamper's holding with all paws. Cheers.
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Q3 Results:
[quote]quote:
MFT
22/02/2005
QUARTER
REL: 0930 HRS Mainfreight Limited
QUARTER: MFT: Mainfreight Result to December 2004
MAINFREIGHT LIMITED GROUP
FINANCIAL RESULT FOR NINE MONTHS ENDED DECEMBER 2004 (UNAUDITED)
The Mainfreight Group of companies (inclusive of the consolidated Owens
Group) is pleased to report a Net Profit after Taxation of $7.7 million for
the first nine months of the 2005 financial year. This represents a 20%
increase when compared to the same period last year.
Revenues increased to $671 million, an increase of 50%. Excluding
acquisition and foreign exchange movements this increase was 15%.
Group EBITDA was 35% higher than last year, at $31.1 million, compared to
$23.1 million. Abnormal costs for the nine months total $3.1 million after
tax and minority share of which the third quarter abnormals were $1.4 million
after tax and minority share. All abnormal costs were related to activities
within the Owens Group.
Group cash flows were impacted by the retirement of $13.5m Bank Debt and
unusual working capital requirements for Owens. Now that the Owens'
divestment process is complete cash flows will directly reflect the
underlying success of the businesses.
During the third quarter, trading across the Group was very satisfactory.
Strong economic activity and performance from our businesses in New Zealand
and Australia saw most divisions improve over the same period last year.
Trading indicators into the fourth quarter to date will provide a pleasing
full year result.
Divisional Commentary
New Zealand Domestic
Revenues have increased 10% year to date with EBIT improving 14% to $16.6
million. Trading remains steady at the present time, particularly in the
fast moving consumer goods sector where our profile continues to grow.
New Zealand International
International freight activity remains strong. Mainfreight International
continues its development utilising our presence in Australia, Asia and the
United States. However EBIT declined to $1.2 million from $1.8 million as a
direct result of Lep International rebuilding after a disappointing year.
Australian Domestic
Revenue growth continues to strengthen, up 44% to $58 million excluding
foreign exchange movements.
Year to date EBIT continues its recovery from negative $4.2 million to
negative $0.3 million. Third quarter EBIT was positive $1.2 million. While
the fourth quarter is unlikely to produce a similar EBIT due to the
seasonality of freight movements, further improvement compared to the same
period last year is expected.
Australian International
The strong trading trends from our first half result continue for this
division. Year to date revenues excluding foreign exchange and acquisitions
were up 19% to $155 million. EBIT continued it's improvement up 46% to $4.7
million. Further progress is expected as Mainfreight International continues
its merger with Owens International Australia. Strong international trading
conditions have assisted Lep International in recording record profit levels.
USA and Asia
CaroTrans continues a solid performance with EBIT increased by $1 million.
The port disruptions and terminal congestion in the USA having little impact.
Our Asian interests continue to grow and provide good profitability. We
anticipate this to continue as we expand in the region.
Our growth in these countries is increasing our international trade volumes
and is providing enhanced supply chain opportunities to our customers in New
Zealand and Australia.
Owens Group
With the divestment and restructure changes completed within the first half
of this year, the quarterly performance provided significant improvement over
previous periods.
EBITDA year to date is negative $0.10 million whilst this third quarter
provided a positive EBITDA contribution of $1.8 million. Some abnormal costs
will be incurred prior to year end with
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Immediate comments on this result:
The NPAT for this quarter is $6.55m (7.7 - 1.15 at Q2). This equates to $26.2m pa and gives a P/E of 9.44 at the closing price yesterday. The not to subtle hint is that there is better to come.
Owens is now effectively profitable and most of the re-structuring is done.
Disc: Happy as
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MMM ah. It seems such a good result was anticipated, so no dramatic action just yet.
DISC: roll on double money :)
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I sat down with the spreadsheet last night, tried to get the recent Mainfreight 3/4 announcement and it to agree. Having done that by making the usual wild assumptions I then projected forward and based on current revenue etc being maintained here is what the spreadsheet says for the future.
Full year 2004-05
Operating revenue: $910,894,000
EBITDA: $48,018,000
Profit: $17,532,000
Comment: Seems a little high to me but then I have consistently underestimated the results recently.
Full year 2005-06
Operating revenue: $959,532,000
EBITDA: $67,408,000
Profit: $30,758,000
Comment: Remember this based on current levels, I am sure that there is more improvement in profitability to come as well as expansion of revenue next year. Based on this predicted share price for end of 2005 is
$3.30 (on a forward P/E 10.28) absolute minimum. :)
Paper Tiger
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Is the collapse of Phoenix Freight good news for MFT?
Who will Phoenix's customers turn to?
Or, is a collapse in any industry bad news for others in the industry?
Freight company's collapse leaves 1000 creditors and 150 jobless
08.03.05
A national freight company has gone under, leaving at least 150 people without jobs and more than 1000 creditors with no idea when or if they will get paid.
Liquidator Jeff Meltzer, of Meltzer Mason Heath, said yesterday that Phoenix Freight had gone into voluntary liquidation, leaving 143 staff "technically redundant".
Auckland was the hardest hit, with 62 jobs lost, followed by Wellington, with 32 staff let go.
In Christchurch, 26 staff and seven owner-drivers are collectively owed more than $150,000 in arrears.
Phoenix was set up in Auckland in 1983 on a small scale but grew to have a national network that delivered to 273 New Zealand towns and cities.
Mr Meltzer said he was appointed by Phoenix on advice from its own lawyer.
"While I was appointed by shareholders ... my role is to work for the employees and owner-drivers and those that are creditors of the company," he said.
Phoenix shareholders told Meltzer they had poured money into the business since buying it in October 2003 but the loss of a major customer late last year meant it was no longer feasible to keep the business running.
Mr Meltzer said he hoped to have a first report to creditors by the end of the week, giving them an indication of how much was owed in total and what percentage they could expect back.
"That will give indicative figures from the information we've been able to glean from the company records," he said.
It will be an anxious wait for Christchurch owner-drivers Brian and Joy Terris, who were banking on the earnings for their upcoming retirement.
For the couple - also business partners in the truck which Mr Terris drives - the liquidation has a sense of deja vu.
The collapse of Phoenix is the fourth time Mr Terris has been working for a company that went bust, and he has been left out of pocket each time.
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Here is a company that turned 6.6m profit last quarter which gives a current P/E of less than 9.3 (assuming a price of 2.55) if you annualise it. It is being sold down in the market by the general sentiment.
There is better to come from this company, so I think you should take a good look at it.
Disc: MFT
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Oh I am my friend. I'm in the process of topping up some of my core holdings. FBU was the first to get lucky. MFT is certainly on the shopping list.
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The general descent of the market appears to have stopped for the moment and Mainfreight is sitting on $2.50, which if I understand the TA correctly, is a support level.
The fundamentals are good so I have been buying today.
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$2.50 does look like some light support. I'm waiting for the RSI to head north. I'm happy not to top up quite at the bottom, but to make sure that the SP is heading north again as well:)