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Also a benefit to those participating in the SPP to have the sp below $2.50!
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with no expansion of the bubble coming soon.. and the fire about to rage out of control in the US , earning about to report in the USA. It could be that the stock tanks under the 2.40 for a short time and you MAY be able to top up more on market but its a slim chance. Low on the GFC was about 2.50 ish.
the big sell orders have been pulled...
moving back up 2.54... its as vol as ever.. wonderful trading stock.. DISC: we never sold ... sadly... we usually do...
A couple more data points notched up. The VWAP was quoted at $2.40.46 for 30th June ($2.34 with the 2.5% discount) and $250.67 for 1st July ($2.44 with the 2.5% discount). That last figure surprised me with the share price closing at $2.59. However there were a couple of big crossings at $2.39 first thing in the morning that must have skewed the average. If the second part of the dibble theory holds, that higher price should stick for the next couple of days, denying those small shareholders a sub $2.50 entry via the share plan. Let's see what happens.
SNOOPY
if you study the last 10 years of prices you will see plenty of entry points to trade. Well there is now another 10 years to trade and a world that is very very unstable.
Filled and sent off my SPP form online, will find out on 8th (wed) how much of what I asked will I get.
If todays VWAP stays roughly where it is now, looks like the new shares will be issued at about a 2% (5 cent) discount to the offer of two weeks ago
June 29 VWAP 252.51
June 30 VWAP 240.46
July 01 VWAP 247.47
July 02 VWAP 255.71
July 03 VWAP 260.15 (at present)
5 day average: 251.26ish
Less 2.5% = $2.45 ish per share
We have the last two data points. These are $2.5631 for 2nd July and $2.5961 for 3rd July. Those figures reduce to $2.50 and $2.53 respectively. So the average for all five data points is:
The dibble theory is confirmed! Albeit the share price rise, after discount, does not seem high enough to get past that $2.50 target figure.
($2.46 + $2.34 + $2.44 + $2.50 + $2.53)/ 5 = $2.45
That is the same answer as 'dubya' gets, so it must be right!
Actually I think some of those Blackrock shares were not crossed until the morning of the next day. So they stacked the price on 1st July as well.
But hang on a minute. What does the offer document actually say about the alternative option to the $2.50 price?
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(b) a 2.5% discount to the volume weighted average market price of the Shares traded on the NZX over the five business day period prior to and including the Closing Date, rounded down to the nearest cent.
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That reads like all of the trades over five days are being lumped into one big mixing bowl when it comes to working out the average. If that were to happen, then the shadow of the Blackrock dump would be cast over all the five days of trading. If that is how the calculation is done then we can expect a lower share issue price than $2.45. Surely this can't be right though? Wouldn't that leave the whole process ripe for manipulation by the 'big boys'?
SNOOPY
Snoops — yes your last paragraph is correct ...one big mixing pot with all 5 days sales in it.
hmm should have bought in multiple folios and transferred off market after all...
"prior to and including the Closing Date"
well done snoopy... you hopefully are the winner!!!
sorry about that...
Blackrock buying back??
1:50:19 pm 1:50:19 pm 260.5 5,000,920 0.5 $13,027,396 1
Interesting to see how many shares I will get, before the SPP, I owned 2 shares, I submit for $17,000 worth of shares. Will we know by lunch time tomorrow?