Actually the switch back is probably harder to time.
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Not necessarily true. In times of panic, people will be switching out of growth funds and into cash/conservative. If this is the case, a shrinking fund needs to realise assets to pay out redemptions. No cheap shares will be bought at the bottom, as all that cash will be required to fund the redemptions. In fact it's more likely that the fund manager will have to sell at the bottom.
One of the pitfalls of unitised structures is that your are beholden to the behaviour of other investors.
[QUOTE=heisenberg;731518]OP is a good example of momentum investment. I do a similar thing with my investment in the AMP Global Shares Index Fund. That fund mirrors the MSCI World Index, so each month I check the 200 DMA and if it sits below the price, I remain in the fund. If the price is below the DMA then I move to cash/bonds. As we’ve been in a bull market I’ve only had to swap out a few times, but I get the feeling this may become more frequent with the current economic climate.
Hi Helsenberg
Time for us to think about what's next for portfolio protection ...
1 What is OP please?
2 Can you give a URL link for either AMP Global shares Index Fund with 200 DMA or MSCI World Index with 200 DMA.
I have google searched for these a few times without success.
Did you consider 100 or 30 DMA?
Thanks and regards
Where did you invest your kiwi saver and retirement money?
Individual stocks
Different types of funds
100% cash fund
Others
I am in 100% cash fund as I didn’t want to take extra risk from my retirement funds. I found in some situation even cash fund could become risky. Therefore, I am hoping to put entire money into individual stocks and looking for a quality retirement funds provider. Is it a risky decision? Thanks.
KS all in active growth..Bear markets appear to only last less than 2 years so I find its imperative that I have 2 years of liquidity(mainly revolving credit facility) without selling any investments.
My view is your investment risk is highest if you have long term term deposits.What will your term deposit be worth in 10,20,30 years?.Will it have kept up with inflation?
Has anyone done comparisons of Kiwi Saver fund performance to overseas ETF funds such as the Vanguard ETFs? I would be interested to know if Kiwi Saver funds have outperformed US ETFs holding equities.
I'm keen on knowing the impact of the upcoming 'capital gains tax' that would have on NZX shares and Kiwi Saver funds?
Superlife, Simplicity and ASB (and maybe others) invest directly in Vanguard funds, so the returns will just reflect their own fees, the PIE tax and any gains/losses from their currency hedging strategy (if applicable)
Hi and sorry about slow reply.
OP means 'original post', nothing to do with investment.
I use barchart to get the 200 DMA data: https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/...nical-analysis
As you can see the price is below the 200 DMA therefore last month I switched to cash/bonds.
The 30 DMA would likely be much too volatile and require lots more frequent changes of position. The 100 could work, however from the back testing of this strategy I have seen, the 200 seems to be the sweet spot where you are doing less admin for maximal profit.
Hope that helps.