Bugger ...at least doesn’t sound as damning as what said about SUM
Printable View
Thanks for sharing. This could be a good time to also consider the average broker view, here https://www.marketscreener.com/OCEAN...010/consensus/
Craigs TP $1.12
What's this?
Suddenly all the sceptics are taking notice of what brokers and their analysts say about stocks and shareprices?
:ohmy:
The good news is, at least the reliable guys at Forsyth haven't changed their target - its still at $1.13 [hold] (same as 3 months ago after half year results)
In fact Craigs and Forsyth are pretty close with their target prices and ratings.
A month ago Forsyth reiterated a 12 month target price of $1.52 with OUTPERFORM rating for Arvida Group but we know they must be wrong there!
I found it again rather odd,Craigs very positive commentary,led to a lower recommendation and target price.?
If OCA goes up,yes we thought so.
If OCA goes down,yes we thought so.
"No surprises there.!"...lol
Encouraging to see another director chipping in for another 50,000 shares at $1.02
Naturally--- Its the bargain of the decade and, as Liz is one of our finest directors, she knows value when she sees it!!
Beagle, a question fro you. Re the enormous expansion program and care suite conversion program of OCA, can you explain exactly where the Capital is /has come from? M Thanks if you would for all of us keen forum folks.
$1.25 what a bargain.
Hi Warren,
If you go right back to the start of this thread you'll see when this company was originally rumoured to float it was riddled with enormous debt.
The balance sheet needed to be well and truly cleansed and strengthened as part of the IPO process and it was. If I remember correctly most of the float proceeds were used to retire bank debt. When floated the company had very low debt so essentially the development program is being run through bank debt which is still fairly modest, the gradual change to an occupation right agreement model as new developments are sold down and retailed earnings.
Capital will be recycled over and over again as units are sold down under the new business model which will fund future developments.
Ah yes, net debt... that is one area where OCA has experienced rapid growth. From $84.4m in FY17 to an expected $203.6m in FY19, and $283m in FY20... up 235% in 3 years, that is more rapid than any other listed operator.
That FY20 number would be nearly as much as the 'bad old days' (the days when Roger wouldn't touch OCA with a bargepole - those days were a mere 2 years ago) when OCA was riddled with debt... that was before the IPO where $173m of the $200m IPO proceeds were dedicated to paying off the $259.1m in debt OCA had as at FY16 - OCA did a good job however, and reduced debt all the way down to $84.4m.
With the housing market now slowing down, it will be come down to how good OCA's continuum of care really is to attract people to their villages - otherwise we'll find sum things won't be selling so fast and capital recycling won't be occurring as swiftly... and that 'enormous debt' OCA is forecast to soon be riddled with again, just might turn into dangerous debt.
I believe OCA can do it, especially if it is as good as their flashy preso's and tour days, but it has silently and certainly elevated the risk profile of OCA above that of a particular other listed operator with strong continuum of care offering who are nearly as cheap with similar yield.