All sold...
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With rates rising ...premium to NAV is fully irrational ...slowly they will vanish ...rates normal will make SP normal like before ...IMHO
KFL premiums are shrinking fast .
Their underperformance relative to the market will also start eroding the premium to NTA and once they start underperforming people may start switching Kiwisaver providers which together with their loss of default status Kiwisaver mandate I've alluded too before could lead to selling pressure of their favored stocks further exacerbating their problems.
Beagle...from Oct 28...
"As I get older I am really happy to have really high quality investment professionals manage some of my money for me with the lower work load that brings on me and the significantly better portfolio diversification. I will hold indefinitely this time.
Last edited by Beagle; 28-10-2021 at 12:37 PM.
The world has changed mate...you either get that or you get steamrolled. If you want to succeed you need to be agile and adapt. What worked in 2021 may really hurt you in 2022. That's my key message for early 2022 which is a year of much higher interest rates, high inflation and reserve banks around the world radically reducing fiscal stimulus.
Just did a lot of work to update my model for BRM which as of a few minutes ago has their NTA at 73.20 cents down another 2.79 cents today from 75.99 cents yesterday, that's another 3.7% loss today against the ASX200 currently down just 1.5%.
That's a HUGE underperformance for their portfolio in January and the month isn't over yet !. . I think there's a high chance of ongoing material underperformance of BRM v the ASX200 for the foreseeable future.
I am mostly, (65%), in cash and short term deposits which is outperforming every other asset class this month !
That's my full update now. Please feel free to make use of this and earlier posts today or ignore it...I've done my bit to help others.
I haven't seen a 'steam roller' other than in a tractor museum so I'm not that concerned.
The sharemarket is a 10 year view not a 1 year view. Short term ructions are likely but this is where you find opportunities and that's the nature of the beast.
Don't want to be a nuisance to you B ..but...you know... crikey 😉
Since that post in October in my opinion it has become pretty clear that a day of reckoning has come for the inflated share prices of tech companies. The last time this happened post the dot.com bubble of 1999/2000 burst it was more than a 2 year process of collapse and the NASDAQ lost ~ 90% of its value. History couldn't repeat, surely not...or could it ?
Sure investment is a long term process but risk mitigation and management along the way brings superior long term returns. The FF group do not strike me as being agile or quick to adapt.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...106/364351.pdf
NTA down a whopping 11% in January against a market drop of just on 6%, underperformed by 5% in just one month :eek2:
Down 8.9% in the last 3 months against a market down just 3.5% !
No resources stocks in their portfolio....surely that's very disappointing.
I struggle to see how their portfolio won't continue to struggle for the foreseeable future as value, growth, resources and commodity stocks appear far better positioned this year. They have some financial's so that's good.
In the great tech wreck at the start of this millennium after the dot.com bust the NASDAQ lost 90% of its value. I think this is a "show me the money" type of market where earnings and sensible metrics REALLY matter. Of course the millennials have no recollection of such events because they weren't investing then so this time its going to be different...or is it ;) Easy enough to cherry pick their portfolio if one wants too.
I called it much earlier this year, BRM to underperform the ASX in 2022. Let's see how I go with that call.
Its good they tell people clearly what their thesis is so people know where they stand, excerpt from latest update:-
Quote:
Our investment process is focussed on investing in high quality
and growing businesses with durable competitive advantages.
As we have alluded to before, we tend to find more investment
opportunities that fit our process in the technology and healthcare
sectors than in the materials, energy and utility sectors (where we
currently have no portfolio exposure).
Our relative positioning is largely responsible for our
underperformance during January.