I am picking the bottom around $1.50. They have over capacity hence the recent fare dump to get bums on seats. I believe another profit down grade is imminent.
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Load factors are running about 1% ahead of last year. They saw some softness with local spend in their forward booking system and are looking to stimulate domestic leisure travel. Oil has been higher than their forecast but I think the market is already fully cognisant of that and its already in the price.
Your target price looks miles out of whack to me and I note average analyst target price is $2.58. https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-N...407/consensus/
AirNZ doing east coast of Australia to USA from AU$729. Two things here:
1. Must be big overcapacity on those routes. They are just trying to fill planes
2. AirNZ is screwing Kiwis.
Sub $2.00 would be a fantastic price to buy in at. I can't imagine it getting that low but if it does I'd certainly be buying a few.
You are a smarter and wiser individual than I - back then I was pretty much just starting out in the market and didn't give AirNZ a second look. Hindsight being a wonderful thing I now see the error of my way....
Yeap I got some on board at just under $2...anything around that level or even slightly above is tremendous value.
I have a good sized allocation already but the prospect of a bargain basement price again would be too tempting to resist.
The problem with waiting until under $2 is it might not get there and one misses the great opportunity that already exists. The way I see it, (barring some major exogenous shock) the trading range is $2.00 - $3.60 so we're already in the lowest quartile of that range and the shares are already very good value in my opinion.
$2.00 - $2.40 to me is the real BUY zone, if it temporarily goes under $2, its HAMMER TIME !!!
The chart says a bottom might be in, but with the DOW shedding 460 points on their Friday, one might expect a rethink on Monday our time. I can't see anything fundamental that says the rout is over for AIR, so best maybe to keep an eye on sentiment and play it as it unfolds. Patience. Easy to say, hard to do.
As Air New Zealand’s profits slump to a five year low it would not surprise me to see the share price slumping to a five year low
Seems a rationale thought