Should have taken note of my warnings over the years, especially pertaining to Pike River.
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What about them matching last years offer (72c from memory)?
OGOG bid 78 cents subject to any dividends being paid.
A 4c dividend was paid, so they effectively paid 74cents per share.
At the time, the key draw for OGOG was not the money (there wasn't a lot in it between them and Zeta), but the direction they wanted to take the company. They gave the long-term business owner spiel, and how great it would be to remain as a listed company etc so that minority equity owners like myself can stay the course and get these exciting exploration prospects drilled, but people who wanted to take some cash now and run would be able to etc etc.
They had me at hello.
Have they adequately explained why they have changed their mind and are breaking their promise?
It seems to have happened very suddenly.
Could Ironbark be the reason?
If so why didnt the Independent directors mention it?-perhaps they are not privy to research OGOG has completed but if so it makes me suspect they could be naive
I believe that when a company is 70% controlled by another company there will be no such thing as an independent director. You want to keep your job you toe the line. Note how the company says the directors unanimously recommend the offer. This is a sort of lie on the use of words as directors must always speak as one outside the boardroom.Companies are not as advanced as say the supreme court where decisions are often given as percentage split. So if there is 5 directors and three recommend then all must recommend
We are never given or can know how split this decision was.
Yes it is my feeling that OGOG knows far more about Ironbank than they have released to the market. Andrew Knight told me a few years ago that there was some very interesting developments taking place that are adding certainty even if it didn't entirely remove the final drill requirements..I do not know what this new technology is but I was assured it would be soon hitting the market and that was a few years ago.
Yes Ironbark clearly has value or else BP would not have bought in.
The value of this prospect will depend on its chance of success.
BP should have a good idea of this as should OGOG.
Independent directors of NZO will not be privy to this.
I might decide to sell my shares should Ironbark be a dud. But after holding my NZO for Many years, I believe loyal shareholders should be allowed a chance of a great win, rather than have to face a compulsory purchase order............
How much per share will the Ironbark drill cost NOGers? Seems a no brainer that if after the drill the valuation is still in potential cooey of 62c then we reject the offer.
Usually these exploration rigs are ballparked at costing around $100M.
CUE is fully funded for its portion of the drill, and NZOG hold 15% directly. I would expect NZOG to be prepared to spend anywhere between $15-$20M on this.
Chump change given the massive potential upside. And if they don't discover commercially viable gas, even if Equity reduced by $20M + depreciation - the value of the net assets would still be higher than the $102M (62c/share) we are being assured is a great price for our business.
If the 'independent valuation' we receive has a recommended value range anywhere near the price being offered, it will have to have a damn good story behind it for many of us to change our views.
I would think that the chances of success at 62 cents would be quite low. Surely they will need to increase the offer.. I will not be selling mine.
Hopefully NZO isn't paying for this. If they are prepared to pay over 70 cents not long ago. Surely is worth paying a few million more for a potential asset worth billions.. I would like to know more about the probability of success of Ironbank.. I am sure OGOG would know. In any valuation they need to assess this. I wonder if Zeta would make a counter offer..
Perhaps that's their strategy, low ball offer then make a small increase so that it seems more attractive. Even though it's still a low ball offer. Just as they did before.
The price is actually irrelevant when the upside with Ironbank is taken into account, and that's what most of us remain invested in the oil & gas sector to see eventuate. And that's what seems to be missing from OGOG's approach in relation to the minority shareholders. They want it all for themselves.
Yeah. OGOG hold 114,876,016 shares. If I offered them the same deal to buy them out, my offer price would be about $71M.
Given the massive (many billions of dollars) upside potential, do you think OGOG would sell me their equity for that price? They would laugh me out of the Board Room.
So why the hell would I sell my equity for the same pittance?
Fabulous potential there for sure, Wiremu but i seem to remember that about 9 out of 10 exploratory drills turn out to be dusters, how do we value a 10% chance of success, generally speaking?
Joshuatree, that's the point. Long term investors in NZOG aren't there for a valuation of a 10% chance of success, however the experts arrive at that figure. They are there to take the risk of success or not, to go the whole way. To be bought out at way less than the break-up value of the company is not why they invest, and is why they will vote no despite the alternative truths in the talking points being used to justify the scheme of arrangement.