Why will there be more?
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You misread my post bull. I am not suggesting that this whole mess will be done in four weeks. I am thinking in terms of scenarios.
I am suggesting that four weeks is the absolute minimum disruption time, just one scenario. You then have to look at a more pessimistic (but realistic?) scenario of 4 months. Then look at what might happen if one year is the true lock down scenario. Then run each scenario as a separate analysis.
Finally assign a probability for each option you choose, and you will come out with a probability related result. This isn't an estimate of what will happen. In fact the answer you get will almost certainly not reflect what actually happens. But it does give you a result that is the best estimate you can get of the financial return you might expect.
If the garment you buy has a shelf life of twelve wears, then I do expect those customers to come back. They would have no choice. How many washes do those pre-ripped jeans last for anyway?Quote:
Isnt hlg demographic the one to take the biggest job hit?
how high is cloths buying on your shopping list when your on the benefit?
You are talking about a long term trend here bull. This is a different issue to a pandemic event which has immediate effect. The future you paint here may turn out to be what happens. But short term, having people roll up for entertainment experiences to replace retail in the current climate isn't going to happen.Quote:
Are not malls in decline overseas as a means of people shopping, thats why mall owners are changing them to experiences so i doubt mall owners will care if a few shops close, there will be plenty to replace them in time.
SNOOPY
For the past few years they have been replacing retail stores on many main streets. When I visit Cornwall in the UK nearly every other shop is now a charity shop. The rents have got cheaper and they have moved in to replace more traditional retailers. Plus in any recession they will be busy, at the moment it is mainly he shabby sheek brigade that use them.
fair point snoopy and totally like the way you think. analysis takes in all senarios.
It would be good to hear what your thoughts are about the demographics and there impact on hlg. mine are that they will lose jobs mostly young casuals and part timers etc a large number of these maybe hlg shoppers
maybe. micheal hill just announced
In the interests of the health and safety of our people and our customers, Michael Hill today announces that it will suspend operations of its Australian store network for an indefinite period with immediate effect.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...480/319429.pdf
I don't think that is likely. But I'm sure lots of unlikely things are happening right now.
They have quite a few Glassons stores in Aus (32 Glassons, 4 Hallensteins) vs NZ which is 37 Glassons and 43 Hallensteins. The scale of their Aussie operation is bigger than you might realise.
Wow, HLG surging today.
From
"https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350510" A non-price sensitive announcement apparently (from Kiwi Property Group).
"In light of the four-week closure of non-essential business ordered by the Government yesterday, Kiwi Property has identified a small number of tenants, relative to the total number of tenants in its portfolio, with a contractual right to suspend rental payments if they are unable or chose not to occupy or utilise their premises because of the Government order."
I wonder if HLG is one of those tenants?
"If all of the tenants exercise this right for the entire four-week shutdown period, the Company expects it would result in a drop in gross rental income of around $6 million, representing less than 3% of the prior year’s gross rental income."
Hang on, this is just for four weeks. If we extend to four months (17 weeks) then the gross income loss extends to:
$6m x ( 17/4 ) = $25.5m (13% of the prior year’s gross rental income)
And if we extend out for the whole year, then the rental loss adds up to:
$6m x 52/4 = $78m (39% of the prior year’s gross rental income)
Now what percentage of Kiwi Property Group assets are in shopping mall assets again?
But none of that is material. Right? (It might be material for HLG though!)
SNOOPY
HLG confirming they are going to have virtually no revenue for the next 4 weeks (nearly 10% of the year)
Yet going to have plenty of bills to pay still.
As I've said many times before, retail is risky and tough.. being around 100 years or so and having no debt will help, but it won't guarantee you survive.
They sounded the alarm (when reading between the lines) over 5 weeks ago... turned out to be very uncertain future indeed... and absolutely stunning that the share price rises on this kind of news.
China is getting back up to speed so yes there will be supply line probs but maybe some revenue from online sales? Pipi to me its more about whether HLG is a good investment proposition atm. Disclose not a holder atpit.
Online sales in N.Z. closed, only online sales in Australia for now, for as long as permitted https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350722
"....."..................
[QUOTE=winner69;802507]Kathmandu sending online orders to nz from Australia
That would fit into non essential, couriers told not to deliver non essential goods, ports are saying they will run out of space for essential goods
Some lucky punters must be 50+% up on this one this week. Really do have to wonder why it's gone up so quickly and if it will actually hold.
Cats out of the bag Monday and probably won't be pretty.........
The thing about fashion retailers is they are going to be left with a ridiculous amount of stock they have not sold. They would of ordered their autumn and winter season in advance (usually fashion plans at least 6 months ahead). They are going to have to sell down their stock significantly when this lifts. Even if there's huge demand, a month without trade is too much to catch up on.
Farmers will be hit even harder I imagine
I bought some of these yesterday. A small amount to cover FOMO, with a plan to average down.
I now regret that.
I was thinking that they are still under priced considering the percentage damage to income from lockdown.
I did not consider longer term currency damage or upcoming recession.
Oh well, still under my long term goal to pay less than $3.20 for this cyclic stock.