Originally Posted by
winner69
Bear markets generally start at the height of economic growth (when GDP peaks in the cycle). When GDP approaches zero or goes negative (recession) the damage (economic and shareprices) has been done. And a new bull cycle starts (or may have started)
Most say that the US economy is still growing so nowhere near a peak in this cycle, so no bear market about to happen soon.
Maybe that guy from JPM is predicting a recession in a year or two and that when that happens in hindsight we can say yes economic growth peaked in early 2014 as did the share markets
So better to focus on the real indicators that tell us where we are heading in the economic cycle - the best one being consumer spending.
(Comments based on US market trends)