Okay, another first for me then, I think I like earning interest on money I don't have more than write-downs !
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At the moment there is just the one loan over 60 days, I expect that to be written down any day now, everything else in arrears is 0-30 days, so nothing to worry about yet.
You're not alone humvee. I am experiencing these errors too, and some of them are now chronic. I noticed other posters mentioning similar problems too, earlier in this thread. Question is, are they just reporting errors, or more problematically, computing errors? If the summary shows 2+2 is 5, then it is quite likely that somewhere in the data 2+2 was computed as 5 (manually or algorithmically). Reports are just the final output. GIGO - Garbage In, garbage out.
Harmoney dataset is huge and growing. Number of errors generally increase with dataset size, but then Harmoney is no different from banks with large financial datasets. Would you forgive your bank if they had such reporting standards? I remain invested for the moment, due to paucity of suitable alternatives...
It does look like harmoney have fixed some of the errors in each category since I reported them
Here are the 4 worst of each type of error that remain in my loans
All of the Active but $0 outstanding loans I reported appear to be fixed
Attachment 10016
Attachment 10017
Pretty much what I expected:
Attachment 10020
Below is another data set from a long term Harmoney Lender - total loans is just over 10,000. Many thanks for sharing:t_up:
I don't now the history or details of this data set, but a few observation worth considering:
- This data set includes early loans that had much higher interest and default rates - some of the early loans, from what I've been able to work out, were somewhat 'dodgy', so this needs to be considered i.e. older loans may not be representative of newer loans (I think Harmoney are doing a much better job now on loan selection - just my opinion).
- I've not looked at the data set, but just doing the graphs, it appears that early loans where based on significantly higher risk loans that may not have had a good return. There has been a significant change to lower risk loans, which is where most of the current loans appear to be.
http://i634.photobucket.com/albums/u.../timeage_1.gif
First a time lapse, which shows the period and investment level. One point to note here is that towards the end there is a huge jump in defaults - I can only guess that Harmoney did a major 'tidy up' of old loans at this point, but I'm not sure. Unfortunately it makes the details of actual timing of defaults of lesser value.
Attachment 10028
The 'hazard' curve is 'broken' due to the jump in defaults. Huge 'churn' of loans very obvious.
Attachment 10029
If you can work this chart out, you can see the significant amount of higher risk loans that have been paid off on the right half of the chart (light blue). The Population line shows where most of the loans are now - lower risk.
Attachment 10030
Data can be beautiful - shows that Harmoney have the mix of loans right. Note that this data set includes earlier, much higher risk loans, so this is probably not an accurate representation of current loans and their default rates, that have change numerous times over the period of this data set. (This applies to all the details below to some extent as well.)
Attachment 10031
Attachment 10032
Limit to 5 images - continued next post...
I meant to add that the tiny peak at the 36 month point, where a couple (...) of loans actually get to is, well, tiny...:ohmy:
Just thinking about the Payment Protect numbers - possibly not meaningful as they include a large portion of loans when PP was not available? Could probably redo this for loans after whenever PP started...
Quick look at the data shows that the large 'jump' in defaults was due to a heap of loans debt being sold off early February 2018.
The 'Enquiries (6 months)' chart has a bar with no label (far right - count of 404), I'm guessing that this info was not recorded in early days, so was just blank - I'd suggest just ignoring this bar.
Everyones loan set is different, so these numbers can only be considered a guide, nothing more.
Fantastic work Myles. Many thanks for the effort. Thanks too to the investor for sharing.
One quick conclusion is that it is much better to invest in rewrites. None of my almost 400 defaults were rewrites too.
Quite a lot to digest in there- you're right though Cool Bear the Re-Writes is absolutely staggering.
Another that stood out to me was Home Improvement loans defaulting at just a tick over 1%.
One of the selection criteria that I use, is I will only go into a Home Improvement loan if the residential status "Fully Owned" or "Paying Mortgage". Would you mind plotting this Myles?
y-axis = number of Home Improvement Defaults
x-axis = Residential status
Huge thanks to both the investor & Myles. Fantastic effort! :cool::cool:
I think this is what you want? You're on the money - looks like most are mortgagors anyways.
Attachment 10038
Exactly what I was after, and looks similar to how I expected. Thank-you!
I have some data which you might be interested in also, how best to get it to you?