dow breaking out range , not sp500 yet though 2670 - 75 got the fed meeting shortly see what happens
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dow breaking out range , not sp500 yet though 2670 - 75 got the fed meeting shortly see what happens
Interest rates on hold USA mkts up 1.8-2% plus , Gold also up $US 1319 oz
Looks like they got their way ...Jerome falling into line
No , more a case of economic uncertainty, Hard brexit, The shutdown , Venezuela powder keg, Trade wars China etc.
With things slowing down, it's looking like the minimum wage increase will come at a really interesting time. I forecast that the mwi will either kick things back into action or be the straw that breaks the economy.
For me - some selling, not buying....
building cash at opportune exit points.
next few months quite critical from a technical perspective. I suspect weakness maybe even a strong fall esp in NZ market.
I dont wish it, but I am prepared for it (not shorting anything tho).
Monthly Economic Indicators from Treasury sort of say NZ economy doing pretty well at the moment
https://treasury.govt.nz/publication...uary-2019-html
for me its technical fear, not fundamental fear
sorry for crude drawing.
Attachment 10296
USA reporting season at the halfway mark.
71 % of companies beat earnings estimate
61% beat revenue estimates
6 out of 11 S&P sectors double digit profit growth
Not as good as same time last year though.
Im still building cash where possible but tempted by a few financial beat downs in aus now that the haynes report is out and things are not so bad.
breakout pattern still working
Capital expenses growing
Competition growing from amazon etc
Gross margins less
R & D higher
A good Hedgeye cartoon explaining cycles
What a crazy few months!! December stock markerts threatens crash.. Fed panics.. QT stops and they go into wait and see mode.. Mark my words, QE will start again.. Next stop? Rate cuts and Hyperinflation???
Seems like the Fed are always 3 months behind what is really going on. I see a whole lot of US companies laying off staff citing various reasons last month. Very similar to what happened in 2008. All related to profit hits. I also see reports of retail stores closing and the Automotive markets taking a hit. Oil down. Mutiple market indicators saying recession around the corner.
On top of that we have Germany and Italy announce they are in a technical recession. China have already restart QE. The world is a mess right now. I think the real fireworks will be in October/September this year.
As soon as QE starts up again you will see the bull run continue. But it won't stop the coming crash.. personal debt is too high
Starting to get scary I think