Opened 1c down today, contrast that with last 4 trading days where it opened higher and sold off by day's close, so hopefully it'll finish up today...reversal of trading pattern may be?
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Opened 1c down today, contrast that with last 4 trading days where it opened higher and sold off by day's close, so hopefully it'll finish up today...reversal of trading pattern may be?
Yep..Couta ..and it takes all sorts to make a market..and when there's enough of them they can dominate the Market Place.
Markets run in cycles and there are lengthy periods when the "Dark Forces" rule and money evaporates...
Sometimes you hear TA as being a Dark Art..That's true.. TA can measure and record everything Good v Evil therefore it can observe the emergence and activities of Dark Forces be it Muppets Bogans and I guess you have to add Shorters to that List too..
The Good lose control when they are "all in" as they can not keep the buy momentum up on the supply/demand equation...
It's amazing really when you talk to people and they say they have bought into the company such as AIR..They shake their heads in total disagreement when I say.."That's not entirely true, as you have also bought into a market that trades in AIR shares".
LOL Sounds like if there was 50 blokes our build they might have a problem :)
http://www.distancefromto.net/between/Auckland/Nelson
Speaking of costing them money. AIR's cost per available seat kilometre, (ASK) is 10.5 cents but seeing as Jet are using very old aircraft, staff and pilot's from overseas e.t.c. at the very lowest possible cost lets say there's is 9 cents per ASK so the flight to Nelson that some booked yesterday at $9 actually cost Jetstar (507.82 km's x 0.09) = $45.70...so you're helping Jetstar lose $36.70 on that flight so those people who took advantage of that opportunity can in a perverse way feel they're doing AIR N.Z. a favour lol
Hmm brought in today a small amount @ 246, only to watch it break down to 238!! Ahh the perils of the market.
Not that I sound patriotic BUT I have flown with other airlines, No matter what Air provides the warm, friendly service that makes me always book with them. I may or may not be the s/holder but I enjoy travelling with air. That goes with any business, if they can't smile and be friendly I stop shopping with them.
What the market will do is anyones guess at the moment. Just look at Oil overnight for example, however the volume on AIR is low at the moment and seems that people are extremely keen to get out causing quite a bit of downward pressure on the SP. My powder is staying dry.
KG.
I suspect some of the Asian holders are annoyed by the double whammy of seeing the SP decline as well as taking a beating on the value of their holding with the $Kiwi falling. That and when the custard hits the fan in their home market the natural tendency for some international investors is to round up one's remaining chooks from overseas and transfer them into their domestic pen.
Oil overnight went from NZD$68.53 per barrel to NZD$74.43 per barrel. An increase of 8.6% for their biggest variable input cost. In the background, they have increased domestic competition and twitchy markets.
So AIR NZ , matching $ 9.00 fares are losing almost as much ...... The risk AIR NZ take is a massive loss of goodwill from its regular customers on these routes ....IE : ripped us off for ages and now there is competition you drop the price . A certain % of people will stay with Jetstar if they can keep the service levels up .
https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/269436
Chairman Tony Carter buys on market. You're in good company Couta1.
Posted that on Follow the insiders thread....
I know that the SP is about 20% from the recent highs of about $3.00 but this thread seems to be turning into an AIR fan club rather than a group of rational investors.
AIR might be a well run business but with large recent drops in world markets, falling oil prices making competition more likely (and the usual airline competition strategy of a price war), increasing likelihood of a NZ recession thanks to the dairy rockstar falling off a cliff, etc, etc
Airlines are a low-margin, high-risk business with very high running costs. No matter how well-run an airline is, it is going to be a cyclical business simply because of the low margins: if customers fall by a little (perhaps thanks a recession), profits are going to drop by a lot.
I'm still holding but the lower the price goes, the more I wonder if there really are rocky times ahead and if I've made the wrong choice by not selling.
I like the concept of "margin of safety"
At $2.40ish is there a sufficient margin of safety for AIR?
According to reuters the FY16 EPS mean forecast is 44.1cpl and FY17 is 36.53
If we take the FY17 number we have a forward PE of 6.6, we currently have price to tangible book of 1.5, gross div yield of circa 9.5% (based in gross est of 23cpl).
We have a strong "moat" of nationwide full service network, 2.x million frequent flyers, patriotic support, secular trend of migration driving international connectedness, tourism, depressed fuel prices, plane efficiency, international trade agreements.
In my view the primary cloud on the horizon is not Jetstar which will struggle for the foreseeable future due to scale and poor customer preference, but rather climate change action. There is the strong prospect that carbon prices and regulation will increase sharply from here for the foreseeable future. crimping growth.
So a very mixed and volatile picure but for me currently the metrics are very strong, and I think there is sufficient "margin of safety" (just).
Cheers