Page 2 of the announcement - "The airline announces today that services to Seoul will be temporarily suspended from 7 March through the end of June."
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Disc: I sold a while back at $2.98 and managed to get a short position on this more recently.
I see it having the potential to test multi years lows established in 2016 of ~ $1.75
Thanks Hoop. Once we are eventually over the fear of flying with possible virus spread we have this sort of thing to "look forward too" as airlines claw back some profit https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/ne...ectid=12311083
No divie from AIR would stuff up Robertson’s Budget surplus expectations. (On top of lower AIRprofits)
Even worse if he had to stump up with a $100m at a capital raise.
Thanks for the questions and chart. I wish I had answers but only more questions.
Not sure why eps was so sluggish after the GFC ? Maybe it took people and business years to regain confidence again to spend money on flying ? Perhaps we can learn something from this history about how long it might take people to start travelling again after this virus, (assuming it becomes a world-wide pandemic which is looking more likely every day) ? If so, what are the implications for demand in FY21 and FY22 and earnings for those years if any ?
What do these risks suggest about the dividend outlook ?
Beagle me old mate
The June 11 year was affected by ChCh and Japan quakes and 'sustained high fuel prices'
Worth noting that big events like those quakes turned a half year npbt of $112m profit into a full year loss of $75m - things can change fast eh
beagle - 2012 was a bit better profit wise but was affected by the residual impact of natural disasters and uncertain global economy. ….profit up from $75m to $91m
beagle and 2010 was a disappointing year “The uncertainty surrounding the global economic recovery has continued to suppress demand for air travel over the past 12 months,”
Note - uncertainty seems to linger a while after a major event
Thanks for raising the subject, Interesting isn't it.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...cid=spartandhp
Excerpt "Any bum on a seat is better than no bum at all and even if it's only paid $19 to go somewhere, at least you're getting cash in."
Looks like they're proactively trying to manage their cash flow already. Safe to fly to Europe, especially Italy,...really ?
What about the time proven law of 'respect market sentiment'. When you have a proven SP volatile cyclical that enters into a confirmed down trend, even finding exact! 'technical' supports seemingly out of the blue, with a backdrop of proven macro and local economic headwinds, you'd have to ask yourself "why have I no respect" by holding and hoping? Is the dividend (at risk) worth it?
This is a weekly price chart, every 'candle' is a whole week. The top was in a long time ago, now it's in breakdown. Whoa, look at that, closing exactly on a technical uptrend line. Reckon that support will hold and it'll be peaches and cream from now on? Hold if you do. The chart says wait until tomorrow if you're not already out on the sidelines.
Unless you have a forever timeline and wouldn't mind too much whether AIR stopped paying dividends or how decimated your capital investment might get, it'll come right one day and those $3-3.8+ SP glory days will return. No worries. If you are sensitive to capital losses and concerned about ability to pay dividends under stress, what are you going to do about it?
Doing nothing is an option for sure, just not an option I would choose. Sometimes TA trumps FA, it reads the market sentiment. The sentiment is really bad at the moment. Combined with the emerging FA, this isn't a happy place but it's not too late to lock in gains. Re-entries will come in time.
A little bit of turbulence presents itself as a buying opportunity for this value investor. Gearing of the company is not bad, liquidity is at the companies own top range at $1.1b (range of $700m-$1b).
Perhaps kicking the can further down the road has been a bit of a blessing in disguise for the company in terms of fleet improvements. I'm sure this new CEO will have some ideas on the cost cutting side.
Will be backing up the truck in the low 2s if the opportunity presents itself. I don't see the affects being prolonged, the media hasn't really shown the full picture of the virus but their job is to sell clicks (more so now as people don't pay for newspapers anymore).