Or you could just get a job with them and get a $1800 bonus, paid out of shareholder funds
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Good to see some sensible analysis here.
My $2.04 price is the price at or below which I would be willing to join the AIR share registry, it being a 25% discount to what I consider current fair value based on a 10 year view.
Disc: Picked the last $1.7X low and the subsequent $3.5X high, but I was probably just lucky.
Disc: Last saw an Air New Zealand plane in Feb 2016 at Pudong (Shanghai) Airport.
Well done on picking high's and low's...my track record not quite so good but have ridden the turbulence with some success and did quit quite a few at ~ $3.50 ish.
So if $2.04 is a 25% discount to where you see fair value Snow Leopard 2.04 / 0.75 suggests you see fair value at $2.72 at present.
Interestingly we have seen a major reduction is where analysts see fair value this week, now $2.60 https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-N...407/consensus/
I'm pretty much around the same level now after the shock announcement of late January and the recent result.
I know the management team are not happy with the current level of profit and will be working towards better results ahead.
With all the issues AIR is having, engine problems, high fuel price & lower profits I don’t think there is going to be a big rush to buy after going XD. My best guess for a good time to buy will be 27 March at around $2.30. Quite often the share price falls below XD price with the low occurring 14 days after going XD.
My usual strategy with AIR is to buy when below $2.60 & sell when around $3.20. This left me without holding AIR between June 2017 after selling for $3.18 and 30 January this year when I broke my own rules & bought back a small parcel at $2.85 (Too quick for a sip after a long dry spell).
This strategy has returned 45% between 2013 & 2016 and 43% between 2016 & 2017. Between times I have been moving the cash earmarked for AIR between THL, HLG & SPK. At the present time all is in SPK & cash but will be cashing in SPK shortly to re-invest back into AIR.
DISC: That’s the way I invest with AIR and could also result in losses D.Y.O.R.
I have made more money off this share than any other on NZX except for Xero. The general trend for trading has not been too hard to pick. I just see it currently has so many more moving parts than in the last few years. Hard to pick.. yet one would expect to fall a touch more yet given the current negatives.
Appreciate all the feedback and discussion. Happy to acknowledge that buying now based on a theoretical ex divvy basis at $2.36 there is some potential downside but as mentioned yesterday I don't think that's as much as 30 cents. On the other hand over the next couple of years once RR issues are fully resolved, efficiencies from the new A321 neo's kick in and one-off costs like the $40m direct costs regarding the RR issue are non repeating plus indirect non repeating RR costs, adverse currency impact this most recent period of ~ $20m if I remember correctly and about another ~ $20m to launch Chicago and Taipei new services, total non repeating including indirect RR costs could be in the region of ~ $100m per annum.
Net profit could surprise in FY21 as could a special divvy. Yes its risky as TA looks dreadful but I see opportunity in the years ahead too and I also see a 12.9% gross yield plus special coming at some stage. I think I am happy to back myself to keep slowly accumulating with a medium term 3-5 year view. Risk and reward go hand in hand.
BYB (Back yourself Beagle)
Thanks mate. Early days but at ~ $2.47 cum divvy it doesn't look like my nose for value and a feed has been too badly affected by the spent jet fuel fumes...
Possibly should have saved the barking for when I'd finished accumulating...
A small blessing: at least Air New Zealand doesn't operate any 737 MAX.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/111...+12+March+2019
Interesting case. Does an implied contract to continuously supply confer with it the obligation from a commercial viewpoint to consider and implement all reasonable steps to ensure said supply continues continuously ? I will follow this one with interest.
Disc: I have shares in both AIR and ZEL
I find it pretty unbelievable that neither the airline nor the supplier had set up any contingency plans or risk management for such an event. I guess surely - if you list the top 10 risks to impact on the service reliability of an airline, than interruptions to the fuel supply must be somewhere on this list?
Having no contracts detailing whose responsiblity it is to ensure the continuous supply is just an outcome of above. Guessing after the event whose responsiblity it could have been is pathetic.
Not sure, how long ZEL was a partner to this contract (did they inherit that from Shell)? and how NZR (I think it is their pipeline, isn't it) would fit into the story ... but this whole thing clearly makes us to the loughing stock of the world.
One company providing a crucial fuel supply without defining the provided service standard (they never seemed to have thought about this);
The countries biggest airline relying on a crucial fuel supply without defining and agreeing on the required service standard (they never seemed to have cared about this);
The refining monopolist running a pipeline without defining the reliability of the fuel supply.
All (?) care but no responsibility and no risk mitigation. Which banana republic are we talking about?
Looks a bit iffy to me AIR going down the the american model of litigation. Chuck some sort of allegation out there,then try to get a settlement.The fuel companies forming the cartel supplying AIR will just put rhere prices up and joe public will end up on the recieving end again!
Interesting BP's position and will Z SP take a hit ?
"The airline had already settled a damages claim with BP, Geye said"
I'm not normally an advocate for any form of Govt intervention but airline travel is an essential service so if AIR and the fuel companies can't get agreement around a robust supply chain I would think the Government needs to stipulate some minimum standard that's above the current one. I believe that's what the enquiry around the fuel pipeline leak is essentially looking at.