Here are 8 suggested short/medium term indicators that could be used to signal entry into AIR.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR78.gif
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Here are 8 suggested short/medium term indicators that could be used to signal entry into AIR.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR78.gif
I find charts very challenging. And not being able to understand it well, have not used it for my own trading (part-time). And yet I believe that it is being used in automated program trading applications.
The closest to programmed trades that I can get is to place these orders:-
1. BUY AIR @ 82 c and 2. SELL AIR @ 86 c.
"I'm convinced that there's easier ways of making money than investing in airline stocks." by macduffy
Yes the return on investment is low (Warren Buffet made some comments about this).
And gosh I never knew about the historical highs and lows of AIR.
Air New Virgin on the way
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...cument&src=sph
The body painted Air NZ people will all of a sudden be an attraction if we have body painted virgin girls
W69 of late you write up`s have increased a large amount with plenty of things happening
good for a MOAN its must be FUN for you..
As to your paper report is a load of RUBISH there is NO reason for AIR to do anything silly like getting Married and to a Virgin just fill in paper talk,, and for your information the
LNN deal never, never gets any sort of mention in AU again just NZ paper TALK..
Have a GOOD day.. BRICKS..
An interesting discussion on Radio NZ ( or whatever it's called these days) just finished, on airlines, especially the NZ scene.
Commentators were very positive on Air NZ.
Good listening but I don't invest in airlines.
;)
[QUOTE=macduffy;265113]An interesting discussion on Radio NZ ( or whatever it's called these days) just finished, on airlines, especially the NZ scene.
Commentators were very positive on Air NZ.
Good listening but I don't invest in airlines.
IF you don't BUY airlines WHY do you keep telling US..
THE tourist figures are down wonder why AIR is only flying one plane a day Sydney to Wellington
NO wonder on the numbers on Sundays they are booked out months ahead so just have catch QANTAS..
Despite the negative news i.e. a lower number of passengers, swine flu, competition from jetstar....:)
I rather like the way the 90-day moving average is inching upwards for the first time in two years, but then, it is off a seriously sick base.
Good to see the price poking through the top bollinger band too, although this has happened 5 times during the same period -- to short-term effect only.
waiting for the trendline break -- moving average crossover would be good as well -- decent volume ditto.
Good on you Scamper. AIR is in a fairly steep uptrend just now, but we all know that every uptrend ends sooner or later. When the time comes to sell, your trendline break is likely to be one of the first indicators to be triggered, but there should be plenty of confirmation at around the same time from the other indicators shown here.
This is an update of the AIR chart posted 3 weeks ago (previous page, post #418). It features the same indicators and time periods. All have worked very well indeed, giving reasonably early signals fairly close together.
Why so many indicators? Primarily to show that there is more than one way to skin a cat. There is no "ideal" indicator and each and every one has its own strengths. weaknesses and characteristics. The fact is that anyone, using any of these indicators, would have traded AIR quite efficiently. They all work well. As you would expect, acting on the first signal to trigger gives the best results, but it is generally considered more prudent to wait for confirmation from a second indicator before buying or selling.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR729.gif
Air NZ shares expected to soar
By DENISE McNABB
In a report Marcus Curley said Air NZ was poised to soar out of the gloomy world environment next year and its share price was likely to rise to $1.35 in the next 12 months and then jump to $1.70 a share.
His forecast is made on the basis of the airline being shielded from oil price rises, international passenger numbers looking likely to increase in the next quarter from -4 per cent to 3 per cent next year and stabilising economic growth in New Zealand during the past three months.
His prediction is in contrast to his colleagues Andrew Gibson and Andrew McCusker's take on a A$231 million (NZ$290m) capital raising announced on Monday by Australia's second-biggest carrier, Virgin Blue, parent of New Zealand carrier Pacific Blue.
Air NZ said the long-speculated capital raising would improve liquidity but the analysts said they were concerned about the risk of prolonged losses from V Australia if conditions remained challenging.
Macquarie Equities analysts Russell Shaw and Riaz Hyde questioned whether the capital raising, diluting existing shareholders' stakes by 49 per cent, was necessary just to improve liquidity when the company was predicting a near break-even performance next year after a A$160m-A$165m loss this year.
They did, however, think the entry price of A20c a share was attractive.
http://www.nzx.com/print/2685055
I've been following all of the Broker reports and Marcus Curley, until recently, was negative on AIR so it's a sea-change to now see such a bullish report.
The stock has rallied well over the last few days, so, maybe it's the start of something big?
Hope this will be a well done stock, brought in at 1.07 with my student overdraft interest free money, $2000.
MY friend is flying back this week end and when she checked her seat she had been allocated a aisle seat when she asked for a window seat NO worry`s it can be allocated
but it cost`s $15 CAN., just little things to COME...
I see another Broker's report is very bullish on AIR, with a 12 month price target of $1.50 per share and a DCF valuation of $1.83 per share:
"Our target price of NZ$1.50 (1x P/B) is unchanged, although forecast revisions boost our DCF valuation to NZ$1.83 (previously NZ$1.43). We think AIR remains in a strong position with minimal near-term capex requirements, net cash and moderate gearing of around 50% (operating leases at 7x). We view AIR as a trading stock for less cautious investors, given the super-cyclical nature of the sector. On our estimates, AIR is trading around 0.73x P/B relative to QAN on around 1x P/B."
Certainly looks cheap compared to its competitors. Let's hope the rally continues :)
I did a day trip down to Christchurch yesterday from Auckland on Jetstar... plane down was the 6.40am departure , about 1/2 full I would say , flight back was 6.35pm which was maybe slightly busier. Return fare was $58 !! ... Hard yakka to make money in the airline market in NZ at present. Nice brand new plane , ontime both ways. Air NZ fare on similar time flights was $398 !!!
AIR closes at 1.18 per share, up 8 cents this week alone!
No doubt fuelled by the latest broker report.
We now have two brokers valuing the shares at $1.35 and $1.50 per share respectively.
So, hopefully more to come.
What do the techies think of the rally and depth?
broker reports are
aspect huntly 1.35 - forsyth barr 1.50 and goldman sachs 1.80.
Factors:
air nz should benifit from continued weakness in USD as a net usd buyer. Will be approaching policy maximums in oil hedge @ 70bbl.
superior management and fleet on the international front - more 777s on the way
continue to be a bloodbath transtasman - rotorua will be good - asians fly into auckland out of rotorua on their nz aussie travels
air nz continue to be strong domestically especially on non - trunk lines
flew to napier yesterday from auckland $170 return similair. no choice no likely competition to enter
new aia management also more air friendly
perhaps the government will ask for a div out of air nz soon - especially as the 787s continue to be delayed.
overall lots of good reasons for air sp increase. Instos are buying.
retail wise i think most investors are pretty adverse to owning airlines based on classical thinking of airlines as dogs.
interesting to see how this plays out. For me it will be from the sidelines:D
Quote: "perhaps the government will ask for a div out of air nz soon - especially as the 787s continue to be delayed"
The government gets a dividend out of AIR every six months, along with all the other shareholders.
thanks for that
im talking a special div. Not to many co's out there sitting on nearly 2bn with no takeover targets
Macquarie have issued a research note this morning valuing AIR at $1.51 and 'Outperform'.
There's a strong chorus now of positive research on this company.
Nice.
Vitamin A question are Macquarie holding a lot of Air they wish to sell?
About time! The "ignorant" market changed its sentiment towards AIR at around 85 cents. Now it is $1.20+ the Bullish reports arrive! Don't those guys use TA at all?
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR814.gif
Phaedrus - you just don't get it mate .... somewhere else somebody said that the techos follow the fundies .... the fundies find value and then the techo jump on board
Are you saying that's not the case -- naughty naughty
W69, if I were of a cruel and vindictive nature I would post charts showing exactly where ST fundies were buying! And that's not the half of it - these guys are staunch. They held right through the big slide......
With VBA most likely off AIR's radar now, what's the chances of AIR announcing a special dividend when it announces its full year result next week?
Havn't seen any report of this in the local press, yet.
http://business.smh.com.au/business/...0823-ev2j.html
Its on the Stuff website sourced from The Age but with its ties to the Dom Post I presume it will be in today's issue.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mark...to-cartel-case
any1 got any opinion on sp direction of air sp over coming weeks
currently holding and thinking of selling - closed slightly higer today at 1.26
cheers
It looks as though AIR will crab sideways for a while - it is in a trading range.
The attached chart shows 6 indicators and their associated buy/sell signals. You can see that 4 of them have triggered Sell signals.
In your position of having held through those Sell signals, I would be inclined to make my Hold/Sell decision on the eventual trading range breakout. A break above the resistance at $1.29 would be a Hold, a break below the support at $1.22 would be a definite Sell. If you don't like such an "open ended" situation, you could sell if/when the remaining 2 indicators fire.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR99.gif
thanks p nice chart - was interesting that the poor results announcement seem to have slowed but not stopped or reversed (up another cent today) the uptrend which was in place. Although as you say it is in a bit or a trading range right now.
does a sp in a trading range statistically most break out to the side of the prior trend? This is what i am hoping obviously. Also AIR is coming up to ex div on monday - how does this affect the support resistance levels? Especially say if one has stops in place.
69% of Trading ranges that are preceded by an uptrend breakout to the upside. With odds like that it is obviously not something you can count on. Note that the last AIR trading range broke down.
The usual practice is to correct for the dividend. This is done by subtracting the amount of the dividend from all historical prices up to the point the share goes ex. Thus there is no "step" in the price plot. All reference points move by the amount of the dividend, but all patterns etc are preserved.
Pheadras a question. You seem to customise the time periods in your stochastic oscillator,how do you arrive at the time periods you use?
Do you fiddle until it fits,or do you have standard time periods you use?
Thanks.
I've been using 22 and 100 day Slow Stochastic oscillators on AIR for so long that I can't remember how or why I initially selected these values. Maybe they gave good results on back-testing.
My overall aim is to run a suite of indicators of different classes with their time periods selected such that they are all of approximately equivalent sensitivity. You can see that the 22 day Stochastic as plotted here is less sensitive than the other featured indicators - it's signals tend to lag behind the rest. It would give better correlation with the other indicators if its period was shortened. This would see it too as having triggered a Sell signal recently.
There is nothing sacrosanct about the 22 day period as charted here. In actual fact, since AIR's reversal early this year, a 14 day period has worked a lot better, giving signals nicely in synch with the other 5 indicators.