ADRIAN ORR our NEW RBNZ GOVERNOR

An economist for a fund manager expects Adrian to make a rate cut of 1%. Much like bank economists and real estate experts. I hope Adrian has the stones to do the right thing and get rid of the dead wood and let markets including the housing market correct.

Poor Adrian is being blamed for the recession, low interest rates and easy money is the only thing people understand. Perhaps they should move to Zimbabwe not sure what their interest rates are but I know they have had plenty of money printing.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...2279baad&ei=18

Would crypto currencies even exist without all the liquidity (money printing). What a massive waste of power. Fortunately not a lot of time or effort involved speculating in crypto currencies.

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Originally Posted by Aaron

An economist for a fund manager expects Adrian to make a rate cut of 1%. Much like bank economists and real estate experts. I hope Adrian has the stones to do the right thing and get rid of the dead wood and let markets including the housing market correct.

Poor Adrian is being blamed for the recession, low interest rates and easy money is the only thing people understand. Perhaps they should move to Zimbabwe not sure what their interest rates are but I know they have had plenty of money printing.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...2279baad&ei=18

Would crypto currencies even exist without all the liquidity (money printing). What a massive waste of power. Fortunately not a lot of time or effort involved speculating in crypto currencies.

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I would be very surprised to see that.
I've been calling for rate cuts for ahead of the market for some time, I.e first 3 - 6 months of 2024. Perhaps a 50bp cut, but I think more likely 25bps as inflation although a lagging indicator is still a lot higher than the 1 - 3% target band.

That ANZ Economist who called for a rate rise last month got the publicity she was looking for, but now just looks foolish.

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Originally Posted by Daytr

I would be very surprised to see that.
I've been calling for rate cuts for ahead of the market for some time, I.e first 3 - 6 months of 2024. Perhaps a 50bp cut, but I think more likely 25bps as inflation although a lagging indicator is still a lot higher than the 1 - 3% target band.

That ANZ Economist who called for a rate rise last month got the publicity she was looking for, but now just looks foolish.

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I wish my memory was better, but I don't recall a lot of strident calls for rates rises when house prices were going gang busters and mortgage rates were 2-3%, just endless conversation about how much everyone was making and how high prices could go. Adrian was talking about the banks preparing for negative interest rates without so much as a peep from the experts about how insane that would be.

Winner might have suggested the RBNZ was a bit off but I do not recall many others.

The financialisaton of the economy has resulted in a lot of pointless activity such as property speculation, crypto currencies and day trading. Perhaps savers and investors should get a return on investment and the dead wood speculators can go for a long overdue skate.

Although that might be bad news for my favourite online forum.

Not RBNZ related but as I have hijacked a thread I will try not to spread my bs too far. The jist of my post is Anti growth and anti immigration so sort of follows along with what the RBNZ's mandate is, growth, growth, growth, inflation, inflation, inflation.

Interesting that I am not alone in being concerned at the sheer numbers of immigrants coming in.

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-po...grant-arrivals

I vaguely recall reading somewhere that when things go bad people always blame the immigrants but perhaps we should blame the National and Labour parties as they are responsible.

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-po...grant-arrivals

Interesting conclusion that I would whole heartedly endorse. Still cannot see why successive govts want to f*ck the country up with overcrowding, other than perhaps it makes GDP look good.

The logical thing for the Government to do right now would be - as far is is practically possible - close the border for new arrivals while there is a 'reset'. But of course that won't happen under this Government.

What we will likely get is the running of a line that says fewer people will want to come as our economy languishes and as unemployment starts to grow.

But I ask you, look at where most of the new non-NZ arrivals are coming from. For a lot of people, it is not that they want to COME to NZ. It is that they want to LEAVE where they are. And that won't change. As long as people can come here they will come.

We've already given ourselves a huge bout of future indigestion by the massive swathes of people that have come here since August 2022 regardless of what happens from now.

This needs decisive action. When you are in a hole, stop digging.

Adrian is a clown, he is doing well and does not appear to appreciate what a failure he is, unfortunately it is hurting a lot of NZers, not the crowd he hangs with obviously, they are more than happy with what he has done and continues to do. He needs a conscience, some self awareness or needs to be removed as RBNZ Governor.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...EWESIMOGWA2TU/

Inflation is evil says Adrian, buts wants stable and constant inflation. Apart from creating a lot of it, he also has a govt mandate to create 1-3% inflation. Why create something he describes as evil?. Where is the proof that constant inflation is better for society who did the studies and where can I find them?

Comment on X after Madison’s interview with Orr -

We cross to ex Labour Minister Grant Robertson, after delivering such terrible results as Gov, why did you reappoint him for another 5 years?.

Robo: Non delivery is a key matrix of our govt & in terms of that he excelled at that.

Japan a guiding light regarding money printing and interest rate suppression. First start with banks lending crazy amounts in the 1980s and pumping asset prices. Then 30 years later Govt debt is 255% of GDP and interest rates can never rise but they fought off deflation. A real guiding light for other economies. I like that they resisted the urge to open the immigration spigot to fight deflation.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-...sons/103653912

Damien Grant gets stuck into our Adrian

Conclusion -

The reality is, we don’t, and it is time for some university somewhere to offer him a position. Somewhere. Anywhere.

Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr’s continued tenure is intolerable, Damien Grant says
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/350...ien-grant-says

Liam Dann explaining why deflation would be so terrible. Maybe it is like inflation a little bit is not so bad and it will create a wealth effect as people's money goes further as prices fall but too much leads to a downward spiral.

Liam explains the great danger of deflation is that everyone will starve to death as we all stop buying food while we wait for prices to fall further. What an idiot.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...NQ3ZGCEEOFIMQ/

Lucky for Liam we have Adrian in charge of inflation. The only thing going down in value on his watch is the purchasing power of a dollar. Sadly a lot of people trade time for dollars, not so sadly some people borrow dollars to buy assets. Maybe that is the real reason deflation is so bad, it gets harder to pay back loans and the negative effects of leverage can be huge much like the wealth increases we see under Adrian.

Maybe Liam's not an idiot, maybe he is just not honest.

Hopefully Adrian will be able to throw him a bone today.

No deflation possible with immigration going crazy.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...O2ONKZH2ATM74/

122,300 departures Kiwis making up the majority of those leaving being more than replaced by 253,200 arrivals, citizens of India, the Philippines, China, and Fiji drove net migration gains in the February 2024 year, Stats NZ said.

Are successive govts actively trying to make NZ a third world country? **** on the young people and when they leave for greener pastures replace them with people whose own country is poorer than NZ. It is a plan, not a good one in my opinion but a plan none the less. Liam will be happy as we avoid population decline and deflation. Instead we have overcrowding and inflation of everything except wages, so much better than letting house prices fall and keeping wages higher. Why are young people leaving again????

Heard Jarrod Kerr (kiwibank economist) on national radio this morning. So enraged I felt the need to post.

Snippets from the conversation that I recall. Jarrod said the RBNZ is hurting households with high rates. Perhaps he should have said "home owners" or "asset owners" or "landed gentry". The bottom half of society is not being affected by the interest rates, in fact if it brings inflation down they should be better off.

Jarrod thinks the RBNZ should get more creative how it measures inflation and should allow for some structural inflation (rates & insurance). In other words accept higher inflation.

What a di*k. I don't suppose he ever criticised the RBNZ when rates were too low for too long. Or when Adrian opened his dumb trap and suggested negative interest rates. Inflation is hurting the bottom half of the nation but economists don't understand this. They only want asset price inflation, it is all they have known for the last thirty years. Yield doesn't even matter anymore it has got so crazy.

In other good news the S&P500 down for a third day in a row so rates cuts not far away. Gold bugs should give thanks to the Chinese central bank and Chinese investors, if what I read is correct. Sounds like china might be moving away from bubblenomics to something more real but I doubt it.

I am waiting for an "economist" to suggest interest rates should be set by supply and demand. Although I am not sure what that would look like, I do know I don't like what is happening at the moment.

Thinking about it further a bit silly suggesting interest rates be set by supply and demand for capital as there will always be limitless demand for capital and in a fiat world there is always limitless supply especially when you have clowns like Adrian and Jerome.

This guy popped up on youtube. The algorithms doing their job with confirmation bias or sending me down a rabbit hole.

Australia exactly the same as NZ housing is a ponzi that needs cheap money and lots of immigration. It is just that the numbers are starting to look crazy as they get more and more extreme.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjZTpUWAaYc

Still if you are invested in a ponzi scheme you definitely do not want it to stop and that could be why no politician or party is proposing any significant change.