Hopeless. Inept.
Can you imagine Clinton, Johnson, or Nixon racking up such a succession of policy failures because they couldn't get the politics right?
Printable View
I believe you are calling this situation in black and white ...when it is a thousand shades of grey-----All emotions aside ...Trump is inexperienced...thats a fact....He has now eliminated all the ''experience'' around him---So it is basically just him and ''yes'' men.............That means inexperience rules..........and inexperience makes mistakes....we are seeing that
We dont know what the stock market is going to do for sure....but Trumps input is not coming from an experienced arena
Im sure he will try anything to create a bounce...but his job has gotten a whole lot harder in terms of market confidence.He may try more ''gifts''like the tax cuts,which by now have run out of ''legs''---One way or the other ,the market has now seen a pattern that has defied the bounces after the drops...(confidence wise ...thats a hit)
Its very hard for me to see how this ''wall'' thing is going to work for him....He has owned the shutdown..(congress voted for a budget to avoid the shutdown....and Trump stopped it)..His supporters will not see it...but pretty much all others see that he ''owns'' this............................Meanwhile Democrats are coming to the house in January as a majority (I think we have to accept that things will not be the same as before).......There are alot more things coming to haunt Trump because of the house majority and I think all will agree Trump does things often without thinking them through. Maybe he will luck out again ,but lets face it,sooner or later things catch up...where ever you stand it is uncertain times---there are alot more things out there besides ''the wall''....(and what happens if he cannot swing it for his ''core'')----Would you ''cave'' if you were the Democrats with a chink in Trumps armour on display?.................or maybe everything will be ok and will bounce nicely and carry on.....all one can do is try to figure the odds with what info is available.
Lets not forget that Trump has had the almost unheard of advantage of having both the House and the Senate under his parties control.....has he made good use of this absolute power?..Now his stamina will be put to the test as.Democrats have the House starting in January. All bets are off if we are using the past 2 years to make our predictions-----------------the markets loved Trump because he gave them(the swamp?)anything they wanted ...tax cuts...rolling back regulations...He can try to carry on ...but now there is half of congress to stop him
No idea how these guys did at predicting the GFC
I’ve no idea whether there’s going to be a big crash or not in 2019 but the s&p at 1200 wouldn’t surprise me, nor would the NZ50C at 2500. Things have looked weak all of 2018 haven’t they.
Maybe the question is do we put more credence on the combined wisdom of people on a forum in NZ or the Strategists at the 19 biggest broking / finance companies in the US who think the s&p will go up in 2019.
However the way Mnuchin is behaving today they’ve probably already changed their mind.
Nice one thanks.That looks to be a beautiful piece. Its been cleaned and polished and prob varnished/oiled/polurethaned.Its the colour and clarity and purity rather than the size. Most gum is rubbish and some looks like a piece of fat. The older it gets the more transparent,honey, golden syrupy colour it gets and eventually the gum (if its top quality ) goes completely clear ,maybe at 50-60,000 years plus. Air bubbles and inclusions like ants make it more collectable and interesting .
Wall st down 700 as I type on Christmas morning (about to go for a run don't ask) so this is some serious sustained selling. The question is, when do we re-enter the market to pick up some bargains. Not there yet I suspect.
I'm drip feeding into Smartshares Funds over the next 12 months (S&P 500 and other funds). I started at the start of the month and will stick to the plan.
Waking up to a drop of 2.7 percent was a weirdly nice present. Won't feel so good when I have more in the index.
A recession is a bear, but a bear is not necessarily a recession. This has implications for rebound ability.
1. What's interesting at the moment is that we have a number of companies doing very well, and some good companies faultering for various reasons. This is confusing investors about whether there are economy issues (everything is going great, but there's enough companies floundering to make you nervous).
2. We also have political concerns locally and in the USA. This is making doubts for the future and compounding concerns from point 1.
3. The are also economic problems in some countries, which don't seem to have any bearing on the world economy. Extra negative sentiment to compound concerns from point 2.
That said, we are not currently in a recession and although there are some concerning things going on, i can't see any evidence to suggest that the economy has been sufficiently dented to push us into a recession in the next year or two.
Therefore, i would say that this bear is just market sentiment (which has implications on my buying strategy). That said, it seems like a serious bear because it's triggered TA marks and the media reporting has changed tone (which i believe can cause self fulfilling prophecies), so it could hang around long enough for us to see the effect (if any) of point 2, before either getting much worse or triggering a bull.
Personally, I'm mostly cash except for my wbc stock that i timed poorly (that one im riding out). I'm avoiding high PE stocks because i see these as having lots of sentiment priced in. I will probably use this bear to trickle money back into stocks at a lower price, averaging my buy price over the period of the bear. The gambler in me will probably try to pick the bottom (which will be difficult due to my lack of experience of bears). I will certainly be looking out for bargains in my favorite stocks.
I tend to think in terms of long term trends and where we currently sit, Advisor Perspectives periodically publish updated charts with current trends:
Attachment 10220
Attachment 10221
A lot of macro analysis and technical analysis coming out, I'm interested to see if earnings support this downturn..
If earnings are flat or even down on LY then we could see this go on for a while.
It is going to be either correction or bear market. Either way investors will get opportunity rebalance their portfolio or build a bullet proof portfolio. Heavy Asian market sell-off is overdone. Another option is take some action to hide out in badly beaten down strong balance sheet firms globally to ride out both bear and bull markets in the coming 3 to 10 years.
Heres my guess.....the Fed will come out with some statement that it may not increase interest rates in 2019 quite as much as originally predicted if the economy cools......but anything to do with the president calming markets ...well...all bets are off....We are dealing with one expensive ego in that area.