Which way will the property market go now?

Banks are offering sneaky deeply discounted home loan rates ostensibly via ‘mortgage brokers’ - but now the cat is out of the bag every man and his dog is asking for them. This makes a mockery of the Reserve Bank and its attempts to tighten. What is extra sneaky is that the retail banks were making out that they were complying, while thumbing their nose at the Governor via these heavily discounted rates. Added to this, the banks Term Deposit and On-Call Savings rates are nowhere near as attractive as they should be, resulting in the Reserve Bank having to call them out on this as well. It seems that retail banks have clear ideas as to where Kiwi’s should be putting their money, and residential property is still the place they are to be herded towards. Ultimately it may be that banks need more regulation to get them to comply with the overall thrust of monetary policy. Needless to say, they are a very important part of the financial system but seem to want to ‘go rogue’ while maintaining a veneer of compliance with the Reserve Bank.

Have deposit rates lifted a bit since?
Differing opinions ATM.Some cite the increasing immigration,the big builders build rates for residential slowing right down ,the property stock for sale at a low and the cost of new builds going up so much. For these reasons some think we are near a bottom in property prices.Interest rate increases near a top another point.

Opposing views are inflation,recession,mortgage resets leading to stress and mortgagee sales,poor sentiments and fear.Thoughts?

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Originally Posted by Joshuatree

Have deposit rates lifted a bit since?
Differing opinions ATM.Some cite the increasing immigration,the big builders build rates for residential slowing right down ,the property stock for sale at a low and the cost of new builds going up so much. For these reasons some think we are near a bottom in property prices.Interest rate increases near a top another point.

Opposing views are inflation,recession,mortgage resets leading to stress and mortgagee sales,poor sentiments and fear.Thoughts?

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The big problem is mortgage resets into the new higher rates. Unlike in N. America, you can't get a 30 or 40 year mortgage fixed term rate in NZ. Typically max is 5 years and all those that mortgage 2 - 5 years ago will be in for a rude awakening if they were mortgaged to the max.

I prefer to use the street level barometer on house price sales. Down my street there's been a house gone for sale over ; first listed 2 months ago and went for auction after another auction. It's clear the listing was passed and sellers in today's market are refusing to sell for less. Likewise in the past year i've seen more and more houses being 'passed' in as they don't meet the reserve price. Interestingly QV valuations sent in the mail has placed our neighbourhood as a whopping +54% increase in the past 3 years. If next year or so houses continue to lose their ground, then i would be quick at filing for a reassessment as a way to lower the rates bill.

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Originally Posted by SBQ

The big problem is mortgage resets into the new higher rates. Unlike in N. America, you can't get a 30 or 40 year mortgage fixed term rate in NZ. Typically max is 5 years and all those that mortgage 2 - 5 years ago will be in for a rude awakening if they were mortgaged to the max.

I prefer to use the street level barometer on house price sales. Down my street there's been a house gone for sale over ; first listed 2 months ago and went for auction after another auction. It's clear the listing was passed and sellers in today's market are refusing to sell for less. Likewise in the past year i've seen more and more houses being 'passed' in as they don't meet the reserve price. Interestingly QV valuations sent in the mail has placed our neighbourhood as a whopping +54% increase in the past 3 years. If next year or so houses continue to lose their ground, then i would be quick at filing for a reassessment as a way to lower the rates bill.

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Just because your house value goes down , doesn’t mean your rates will .

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Originally Posted by stoploss

Just because your house value goes down , doesn’t mean your rates will .

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Maybe, if you are passive and don't do anything about it. Suggest, that you challenge the minion on the spreadsheet at the Council who's plugging in the numbers from who knows where, and calculating what Rates they think you are liable for. I can assure you that their blunt instruments are unlikely to be close to the truth.

Go after them, it's perfectly within your rights to do so. If the capital valuation of your 'improvements' or your 'land value' have gone down, it's quite legitimate to challenge the Council that your Rates should go down as well. Contest the valuation that your Rates are calculated on, insist on a real-person valuation from them (maybe back it up with an independent valuation) and challenge your Rates assessment.

You can also challenge their assessment that your valuations have gone up, hence Rates gone up as well. Can you be bothered doing these challenges is the only question, you'll have to abide by their assessment if you do nothing, or you can influence their assessment if you do something.

Done it a few times, it always worked in my favour. Passive Rates payers get screwed, whereas active challengers get the concessions that reflect reality on their capital land and improvements valuations. Five minutes on a phone call to Council and chaperoning a valuer on your property, makes a big differences to your rates payable.

Try it. Passive loses, active wins.

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Originally Posted by SBQ

The big problem is mortgage resets into the new higher rates. Unlike in N. America, you can't get a 30 or 40 year mortgage fixed term rate in NZ. Typically max is 5 years and all those that mortgage 2 - 5 years ago will be in for a rude awakening if they were mortgaged to the max.

I prefer to use the street level barometer on house price sales. Down my street there's been a house gone for sale over ; first listed 2 months ago and went for auction after another auction. It's clear the listing was passed and sellers in today's market are refusing to sell for less. Likewise in the past year i've seen more and more houses being 'passed' in as they don't meet the reserve price. Interestingly QV valuations sent in the mail has placed our neighbourhood as a whopping +54% increase in the past 3 years. If next year or so houses continue to lose their ground, then i would be quick at filing for a reassessment as a way to lower the rates bill.

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BNZ does do a 7yr fixed term but was also very expensive many percent more than 5yr back when we see sub 3% in the 5yr ..the 7yr was like 5.99% etc ...

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Originally Posted by JBmurc

BNZ does do a 7yr fixed term but was also very expensive many percent more than 5yr back when we see sub 3% in the 5yr ..the 7yr was like 5.99% etc ...

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One of the banks stopped offering the 7 year mortgage last year (I had thought it was BNZ but maybe not).

Price/rate was probably an issue. It wasn't just that they hadn't had anyone take it up, but they hadn't had anyone even inquire about it!!

Cheers guys.The thread title does have me wondering whether it's time to start averaging in (nearer a bottom) to property stocks here and Aus and maybe an etf.

RBNZ throwing borrowers a bone, got to keep the market alive while prices are being bled.

"The Reserve Bank of New Zealand – Te Pūtea Matua is proposing to ease mortgage loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions."
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...ed-level-where

Homes.co.nz put their estimated values on my houses all went up for the first time in about 18 months. Obviously not a trend but perhaps first signs of life.
Anyone else?