Again i believe the buyer is fisher...... i note its just been added to their list of stocks they hold......
give these guys another 10 years and they will control all the growth stocks in NZ !!!
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Again i believe the buyer is fisher...... i note its just been added to their list of stocks they hold......
give these guys another 10 years and they will control all the growth stocks in NZ !!!
An investment company holding and investment company? mmmQuote:
quote:Originally posted by Footsie
Again i believe the buyer is fisher...... i note its just been added to their list of stocks they hold......
The purchase of the new energy company looks like a good move.
Energy assets are doing extremely well, TPW now over $8 - pretty tidy gain for IFT in only 6 months.
However their airport investments which have underperformed a bit in recent times are set for a good run with the falls in oil. Purchase of Kent set to be a stellar long term investment.
In short all current investments looking good with no duds
The technical boys out there will be keeping a close eye on the IFT SP today. Will the current buyers be prepared to test the $6 mark.
Wow, the buyers have really cleared out on the warrants, the highest bidder is at 2.36 with a market price of 2.65.
Their closing price of 2.50 means a premium of only 20c above the heads, which means the market is saying that IFT share price will increase by only 3.4% over the next two and a half years! That rate of growth would be well out of line with the progress of IFT over the years. Either the share price is too high or the warrant price is too low.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Caesius
Wow, the buyers have really cleared out on the warrants, the highest bidder is at 2.36 with a market price of 2.65.
Maybe the market has become unsettled about the Stagecoach investment, after IFT's recently expressed concerns about the Government's attitude to public passenger transport policy?
The warrants often move in the opposite direction of the heads and the variance jumps around.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by COLIN
Their closing price of 2.50 means a premium of only 20c above the heads, which means the market is saying that IFT share price will increase by only 3.4% over the next two and a half years! That rate of growth would be well out of line with the progress of IFT over the years. Either the share price is too high or the warrant price is too low.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Caesius
Wow, the buyers have really cleared out on the warrants, the highest bidder is at 2.36 with a market price of 2.65.
Maybe the market has become unsettled about the Stagecoach investment, after IFT's recently expressed concerns about the Government's attitude to public passenger transport policy?
I wouldn't read too much into the stagecoach talk, IFT are outstanding at lobbying government
Colin you make a good point regarding whether or not the price of the head shares takes into account the dilutionary effect of the outstanding warrants.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by COLIN
Interesting, GG. I am not really au fait with the way the Black-Scholes methodology works but I am a little surprised that it doesn't place the value of the warrants at a greater margin above the heads, given (a) that the warrants have two and a half years to run, (b) the rate of increase in the market price of the heads, and (c) the fact that the dilutionary effect of the warrants should already be built into the market price of the heads. (Even allowing for the divs on the heads).
I've re-run my Black-Scholes calculations with yesterday's closing prices (IFT $5.80 IFTWB $2.50).
Adjusting for dilution I calculate a warrant value of $2.19.
Not adjusting for dilution I calculate a warrant value of $2.56.
I see several possible conclusions.
1. The prices for IFT and IFTWB are in balance, more or less, and the head share price already incorporates a discount for the warrants' dilutionary effect already.
2. The warrants are overpriced because buyers have forgotten to allow for the dilutionary effect.
3. Black-Scholes isn't a very useful valuation method.
We can't use Infratil's balance sheet to confirm (1) because the shares are trading at well above the $3.22 NTA per share. But it would be nice to think that the market is working and that my earlier IFTWB valuation was incorrect because I needn't have discounted for the dilutionary effect.
What does anyone make of the latest email update?
Never mind the update, we're now looking at this: Infratil profits up nearly 4x, meets council about bus problems.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/news/scne...e.php/c68f0e66
^^^ Which was a bad announcement, apparently. IFT and IFTWB down quite a bit.
I guess people could be worried about the Europe airports, but all the other investments seem to be on track.
The europe airports went backwards because the previous year only included a part period of losses from the Kent/Lubeck acquisitions which they said was in line with their expectations.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Caesius
^^^
I guess people could be worried about the Europe airports, but all the other investments seem to be on track.
That have issues with the buses in that if planned regulation goes ahead, their upside might be limited.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Caesius
but all the other investments seem to be on track.
The buses only make up a minor part of the IFT investment portfolio and will more than pay their way. The airports results were all in line with market expectations (Kent was ahead of expectation).
IFT is mainly an energy company and the result was very pleasing. The pull back in the current share price is primarily due to the SP going up 25% since late last year. Hence, the minor breather.
Reasonable growth coming out of the airport business during the last month.
Passenger numbers buoyant at Wellington Airport
Email this storyPrint this story 5:00AM Friday March 16, 2007
By Owen Hembry
Passenger numbers are up at Wellington Airport but a lack of capacity growth will constrain demand in the next 12 months, says infrastructure investor Infratil.
Infratil holds a 66 per cent stake in the airport, whose domestic and international passenger numbers rose last month by 4.2 per cent and 8.8 per cent respectively.
Load factors - the percentage of seats filled - were well ahead of last year and the airport expected a lack of capacity growth to constrain buoyant demand for travel in the next year.
Infratil said the experience at Wellington was just part of a bigger picture including an imbalance between demand and supply.
"There is an airline boom under way supported by high demand, constrained supply and, not surprisingly under those circumstances, significant increases in average fares."
February passenger numbers were up 6 per cent on last year at Glasgow Prestwick Airport and up nearly 30 per cent at Luebeck Airport.
Freight handled at Kent International Airport was up nearly 50 per cent on last year at 2408 tonnes.
Infratil's shares closed down 3c yesterday at $5.47.
Still can't work out if this is a good or bad announcement. And I've read it three times.
Caesius
When reading the NZ airport statistics remember to ignore the customery IFT dig at Air NZ. IFT has an international airport portfolio and like to highlight how small minded Air NZ is in its approach to growing the market within NZ.
The report was all positive except for the plans of a dodgy budget airline that pulled out of the proposed States flights from KIA.
They are making very good progress in the freight department. However, I do not know how freight tonnage flows through to the bottom line.
As Borat would say, "Wa-wa-wee-wa". Check out the volumes thru IFTWB today. Does this have anything to do with the Vic Energy announcement?
The extremely healthy volumes continue in IFT.
Interesting Herald article below.
Debate over second Auckland airport turns nasty
The public debate over a planned second airport for Auckland has turned nasty with one mayor accusing the country's largest airport company of "foul" and dishonest tactics.
Waitakere mayor Bob Harvey said he was staggered the Auckland International Airport Limited (AIAL) had given $19,000 to the Whenuapai Airport Action Group (WAAG) which he called a small ginger group opposed to a second commercial airport at the Whenuapai air base when the air force moved out.
Mr Harvey, whose council formed a commercial venture with Infratil and other local councils to promote Whenuapai as a second commercial airport, said they had long suspected the action group was being funded by "foul means rather than fair.
"AIAL is the business equivalent of the Exclusive Brethren," he said.
It was "a major listed New Zealand company hiding behind a supposed community group, acting out of total self interest, and trying to keep it all secret".
He said they were taking legal advice and considering a complaint to the Commerce Commission.
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Advertisement"AIAL has clearly been working in an anti-competitive way to undermine our project and protect their monopoly."
However, AIAL chief executive Don Huse, said his company wanted to promote debate on the issue and give a voice to public concern.
He said there was nothing secret about the financial or advisory support AIAL had given to WAAG or any community group.
He said the debate on the future of Whenuapai was of national and regional importance and his company had absolutely and utterly complied with the "very clear legislative and regulatory obligations" and had done nothing wrong.
"It is a debate that is important for all people in Auckland and in fact more broadly across New Zealand."
He said WAAG wanted to represent a local view, and did not have the resources of Waitakere City Council and Infratil. The council and Infratil had spent "enormous sums of money" on the due process, he said.
"We are happy to help out to help the debate be as informed and as open as possible."
He said the council was promoting an outcome and the challenge was for the community voices which opposed the plan, to be heard.
"I would be very concerned as a matter of principle if the voice of community interest was in any way to be stifled.
"They (Waitakere City Council) have a commercial interest in what is being promoted here and it strikes me they also have to listen to the community.
"It seems to me to be pretty telling that they are critical of any assistance being given, small as it may be, to community interests to register their concerns.
"Is that really democracy?" he said.
He said AIAL "absolutely refutes" any suggestion it had not acted openly and honestly.
- NZPA
Interesting read, I'd like to see some major announcements from Infratil's way.