I think the smart money is on to it.
This company will struggle going forward that is why the price is going down.
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I think the smart money is on to it.
This company will struggle going forward that is why the price is going down.
Agree with you Nevl the latest profit announcement was very positive and there should be some upside very soon with their niche market and American approvals in place. I'm averaging down against the TA advice I know.
Hi PiB, here are some trading rules that you might like to take a look at. The first 2 are the most important, but you will see that most are directly applicable to your case.
Click here.
Not by my calculations mon. Here's what they've been saying:
June 2008: "We expect net profit for the year ending 31 March 2009 to be in the range $2.0-$2.5m."
Nov 2008: "We are not confident of meeting the $2.0-$2.5m target."
Feb 2009: "We still expect to post a positive year end result."
Looks like a series of downgrades to me mon, at a time when the NZ$ has sank quite rapidly and CVT should be big beneficiaries given that 80% of its earnings are now derived offshore.
Trying not to be too cynical here but there are no actual numbers.
"We expect to post a positive year end profit result. We have a good working relationship with our bankers, Westpac, and have recently rolled over our long term debt positions"
can be translated as
We should make a profit but don't bet the farm on it, and the bank reckons they can get their money back at this stage.
regards
Paper Tiger
I like the branding and products of Comvita.
They now need to get their act together and reduce cost. This can be a good long term portfolio stock if they can crack the Chinese market. It is a big ask, but patience is the key.
wasn't sure whether to bump this or the hillarious kill carmel CVT thread but this one seems most 'on topic'.
http://www.investor.comvita.com/ - annual report is out today.
makes for interesting reading. Doesn't seem like much new information - board as been stressing a create sh value mantra for a wee while now.
Can't aregue with their big sales growth though - or is this all by acquisition?
As a long term holder - bought pre-ipo and regret not selling at 270. I should have remembered the rules:
1. growth co's are often overvalued due to analyst optimisim
2. ipos usually underperform once ititial buying has subsided
anyone care to comment on the result and whether this co is a buy hold or sell and why
cheers
This chart is an update of the one posted here almost exactly 6 months ago - the indicators are the same and all parameters are the same. (So let's have no accusations of hindsight eh?) Anyone following these indicators would have bought CVT at around 76 cents on the basis of the trendline break, which was confirmed at that time by an OBV trendline break. The other, more conservative indicators featured here triggered much later, as you would expect. The 200 day EMA (as used by very conservative investors) worked surprisingly well, getting them out reasonably early (at around $3.80) and, more importantly, keeping them out as CVT's downtrend continued.
Pay close attention here to the movement of the Big Money (assumed to be the "smart" money.) Notice the particularly timely exit. They bailed before the downtrend got under way. Notice also the very timely entrance at 83 cents. Anyone selling when the smart money did and re-entering when the smart money did would have done pretty well. Now, the "smart" money is assumed to have more knowledge than "retail" investors. Mug-punters like us can never hope to know as much as insiders. Theoretically this puts us at a distinct disadvantage. But does it?
Look at the trendline-break and OBV trendline-break Sell signals here. BOTH of these preceded the "smart money" exit by nearly a month. Look at the recent trendline-break and OBV trendline-break 76 cent Buy signals. Again, BOTH of these preceded the "smart money" 83 cent entry by nearly a month. Kindergarten level TA outperformed the smart money by a handsome margin.
Spare a thought here for the poor fundamentalists. Forbidden by their faith from utilising TA, they miss out on all this useful information on market sentiment and are forced to rely on dated company reports for their analysis. This makes it very difficult indeed for the poor sods to buy anywhere near the bottom - let alone sell anywhere near the top. The annual report that came out today is reasonably positive but the shareprice began moving up over 3 months ago and has now risen over 70% from its lows. Time for the fundies to buy perhaps?
Technically, CVT was a Buy 3 months ago. Right now it is a Hold.
Modandm had made a good profit on CVT but lack of any exit strategy meant that this was all given back to the market. Their initial investment is now worth half what is was.
Market sentiment is at least as important as analysts "valuations".
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/CVT814.gif
Thats beautiful Phaedrus but sleep light. The fundies will be coming for ya with torches and pitch forks in hand.:D
Picture tells it all eh Phaedrus
Modandm mentioned the kill carmel thread whatever that is but the last big spike in volume was Carmels last throw of the dice with CVT.
In the period 20/5 to 10/6 Fishers sold down the last 2 mill odd shares at an average price of 75.6 cents .... so one could say that once again Fishers lost heaps on quitting a position they didn't like too hold any more
But what a bargain for those since ... now 50% plus up since they bailed.
Suppose this could sort of be a case of techos following the fundies in reverse .... fundie saying no value left so techos pouncing
Would have to think that the price will continue to rise more
I doubled holding at 84 cents but for me this is all about the business strategy of buying an incountry distributor to cheaply create a multinational structure as well as being earnings aquisitive. (earnings cheaper than the P/E rate) eg. Greenlife hong kong purchase. Other great strategy is multiplying the premium earnings that they make on the food products with medical and skincare products. ie Why sell food at just over commodity prices when the value ad products give huge multiples. If only more NZ exporters were like this one could see some purpose in investing in them.
McDouall Stuart continue to rate CVT as a BUY ..... this time citing improved prospects from selling higher margin products .... looks like this broker sees value here
Now the value investors have recognised this as a good thing and made the share price to go must be time for the techos to get on board and keep the momentum going
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/4...a-limited.html
thanks for the chart Phaederus.
So seems like a good hold for now. Will definatly watch for sell indicators in future.
In terms of diagnosing my failings:rolleyes:do you have a longer term chart which might show the long term uptrend prior to the 1st uptrend in the chart you posted? When did that uptrend chart indicate a sell?
Also is kind of hard to use a large volume spike as a sell indicator isn't it? I mean it may indicate strength too?:confused:
In hindsight seems like the fall from the support level of 350 and the 200day ema break was the most credible sell indicator. do others agree? what are standard moving averages used by many techies? 30, 100, 200?
$100k of Comvita shares traded today probably due to their upbeat 6 monthly report. Sales of 40m, Npat of 1.6m and a 2c divvie declared for December. Good effort all round in this retail environment. Stronger gains are anticipated for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter.
.....yep solid company selling top products for todays markets.......plus a solid future by all accounts.
Share price still rising markedly. Note that CVT are selling the licencing rights for Medihoney to Derma Sciences for the sale to the professional medical market. It seems CVT will retain manufacturing and some selling rights to other markets.
CVT always has had tremendous potential, it just needed to clear away some of the distractions it had with the Waikato University and infighting with other suppliers over branding which it seems to be sorting out. It still has a long way to go to recover the lost ground from an SP of $3.40 more than 2 years ago when I started buying them but deals like this are what CVT should be very good at with their experienced management.
Is it a buy now Phreadus?
I don't know whether CVT is a "buy" right now, but it certainly is a "hold". The price action smashed through resistance of $1.25 late last week and has gone like a steam train since to $1.48 today.
Those traders who had recently been looking for an entry point (I was one) would have bought on Friday when it pushed through resistance and closed at $1.30.
No it's not. See how oscillators show it as OverBought? Look at what happened previously whenever this occurred. Now is a time to hold - NOT buy.
Here is a list of Buy signals, ranked according to my very approximate estimate of their strength/reliability :-
(1) Breakout above previous resistance.
(2) Break of a confirmed trendline.
(3) Price/Volume breakout
(4) Break of On Balance Volume trendline.
(5) Exceptional Volume spike on Up day.
(6) Bullish oscillator divergence.
(7) Moving Average crossover.
(8) Oscillator Buy signal.
(9) Trendline respected
These signals are all marked on the chart below.
That's when CVT was a Buy.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...PB/CVT1119.gif