Originally Posted by
Snoopy
Still not sure how to best model the China growth plan? I am now thinking that China is more like a lucrative branch of Australasia as all the product is imported from NZ/Oz.
So I think the ATM growth model is more like:
(Oz/NZ/China) funds (UK) funds (USA)
Of course 'conquering the UK' seems to be mainly happening in the lower right hand corner of England including London. And conquering the USA might initially translate to conquering just California. So I am picking that UK will have to fund growth over the rest of the UK as well as the USA. Or maybe Australian growth covers the expansion into the rest of the UK? That is the money that Australia generates that isn't needed to develop China! The problem is $20m over three years for the USA is big money for ATM, but not big money for the task they want to do. All the future cashflow looks to be on a knife edge. Keeps me on the sidelines not buying. I wonder when the necessary upcoming cash issue will happen?
When ATM was 70c, the institutions balked at paying more than 50c for new shares. So with ATM arround 55c, I think 40c is looking likely. But wouldn't that leave you as a fund manager looking red faced if you paid 50c for the last cash issue? Perhaps that is why those institutions don't want to do it?
Big cash being generated in Australia? I guess so, but 'big' only in relation to ATM shareholder funds, not the road map that ATM have drawn out ahead of them.