I've watched this thread with interest (amongst other things) over the last few weeks. A few legends and posters I've admired over the years for their balance and knowledge have been acting very differently over this period - to the extent it's almost as though someone else has been writing their posts! The amount of 'told you so' and negative down-ramping with almost every comment has been a little tiresome. I am not disputing many of the facts that have been presented, but the continual negativity and biased opinion has been a bit out of hand so I feel obliged to share a little from the other side.
I doubt anyone on this forum has dropped in paper fortunes as much as I have over the past three months, and even more sensationally over the past couple of weeks. I didn't read the tea leaves correctly as I focused more on the good news from ATM about benefiting from Covid and air-freighting to keep up with demand. Yes there were some warning signs, and yes I chose to ignore them. But having an exceptionally low average cost has insulated me to a degree - if you can call accepting a drop of $8 a share on a six figure number insulation!
I will confess that I have been guilty of some of the accusations presented (or should I say repeated ad nauseum) on here lately. Hindsight indicates blind loyalty might have been a problem for me. I may have taken ‘let your winners run’ a little too far. Some posters have indicated that many of the issues could have been foreseen, although even looking objectively now some of the claims made are a little specious. I don't recall seeing any of the continually reinforced claims now being made back when $20 was the benchmark. However that doesn't mean they are not now correct and seemingly obvious – in hindsight.
The continued repetition from a few normally highly respected posters is almost Bull.... proportions, and I cannot fathom how their tunes have changed so quickly – and with such ferocity. There appears to be more disappointment that the price has rebounded over $1, and more and more posts are made turning anything into a price negative – which I find interesting and revealing at the same time.
So as a large and long-term holder, I’m well down over 3 months but still 2000% up over 7 years. I have such a low cost price I couldn’t ever bring myself to pay whatever price is current. But if I was new to it, I’d probably hold off for more news before investing too much. I believe A2 has a very good long-term future and will be a sound investment at current prices. Yep it may go down, and it may go up. Believe me, I’ve gone through many $1 or more ups and downs in one day with this stock and there will be more to come.
Mataura Valley is a good decision. Having 25% Chinese ownership is the best part. Making $300m a year would still indicate a pretty decent company. So contrary to the experts on here, I think the board got all of the very worst news out. They just couldn’t risk not doing this. So for me, I doubt we’ll get the now (in)famous 3rd downgrade we have all read so much about lately, and may even get some minor positive news. Note - unlike a few here who now seem to state everything as fact, this is only my opinion. But at least if I’m wrong I will at least say ‘I was wrong’!
Here my one 100% prediction though – Doomsday is not coming anytime soon!
Good luck to all……..and yes luck does come into it! :)