Participating at 7 bucks or lower for maximum allocation.
disc: IPO holder since then
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So lower the sp between now and Friday 5/3/21 the better, and lower sp for the offer. Then those new shares can then be traded on market from Friday 12/3/21. Anyone have any predictions what they think sp will do from Mon 8/3/21 to Thursday 11/3/21? And any sp predictions for Friday 12/3/21 taking into account that is also ex div day? I do have a prediction but would like to hear others thoughts first.
How come this pump through the end of 2019? The Oct 2020 is obviously easier to explain. Just trying to assess where the price might be were it not for COVID and everything else. Never really established a base over $6 until late 2019.
Last 12 months taught us we usually get a better price just before and/or just after strike date...maybe that opportunity was last week... given the average (for the price set) is volume weighted perhaps larger buying volume from now to friday at above $7 will be evident. Not suggesting manipulation, heaven forbid. Would this be followed by a wee sell off next week? Either way not sure I'd rate this opportunity an absolute steal for those looking to just accumulate.
I am following your example RGR367. Despite getting a better deal than the institutions, I don't believe this offer will be an out of the ball park hit for small shareholders. In the medium term, I am expecting downward pressure on the CEN share price because of rising interest rates. Ten year rates at 2.5% within a couple of years I think is likely. But to an extent my own modelling takes this into account (my base investment case is for a 4.5% gross dividend yield).
What finally swung me over the line was the vision beyond the new Tauhara station. The effective rebuilding of the Wairakei with 167MW 'Geofuture' project, and the obvious careful attention to the cost effectiveness of each project in relation to competitor's developments (Capital Raise Presentation, slide 10). 'Geofuture' is not specifically labelled on that chart. But I am pretty sure it is the next geothermal 'cab off the rank' once the three competitors wind projects are built. Neither 'Geofuture', nor the benefit of the mooted North Island battery project are part of the forecast EBITDA lift from Tanhara alone.
The development pipeline is based around a geothermal field Contact know well and they have the in house team to carry out such projects when and if required. So I think execution risk is low.
I talked to my contact at Jarden's during the week who was very cagey. They are involved in the offer and so are under a blackout period for personal customer advice. However, I was told that prior to the offer proposal and investment window opening, Contact was their preferred investment in the gentailer sector.
Taking everything into account, including the somewhat unappealing alternative of a 1% term deposit, I think there are enough reasons to give this offer a good go.
SNOOPY
Detective Inspector Snoop "Ten year rates at 2.5"
the FED maybe stuck between a 1.9 T stimulus and higher employment but they have signalled that they want to keep the long end down. If inflation doesnt run hot look for them to try to sit on the long end in the next 12 to 24 months. They can sell the short end and buy the long end of the curve.
Just to be clear Waltzingman, I was talking about New Zealand 10 year government bond rates (currently 1.809%) not US 10 year bond rates (currently 1.467%) as I write this
Reference http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/...land/10-years/
I am expecting the relative outperformance of the NZ economy will see interest rates continue to rise faster than the US here.
SNOOPY
OK, the 'volume weighted average market price' for the week to date looks to be in the region of $7.05 - which is, coincidentally, the actual price as I type. Which would make the offer price $6.87-ish.
I actually bought CEN cheaper than that last week (at $6.78) but it seems to have formed a base here so, churlish to refuse.
Stocking up for the long haul...
I'm on the fence. My current base cost is $6 so this increases the cost basis
I'm also wondering if we are due a market correction that could push the whole sharemarket down. 24 hours to ponder...
Hey Tango,, I am not saying your position is wrong. To use the baseball analogy, I don't think anyone is being offered a home run on a plate here. It may be the best action is to let this pitch go through and wait for a more wayward pitch to have a swing at. I haven't committed to my own 'first hit' strategy to the extent of not keeping some gas in the tank for second swing at this pitcher myself ;-). The good thing is in this game, we don't all have to follow exactly the same strategy to all be winners.
SNOOPY
I didn't qualify for the share offer, but have been accumulating under $7 at end of day for the last 5 days. My average price is 6.88 and hope to buy more next week as long as it is under $7 but may pay a bit more if I have to.:)
I'm in to the max. Will sell what I don't need. As it may take my portfolio % a bit high should the share price grow in years to come.
Currently @ 3.5% with average buy 5.59.
I thought about getting a firm allocation from Jordan but that that pitch go through because I thought it might be more attractive to wait for the SPP. The only catch is that an allocation from a broker is a definite amount of money and you don’t have to tie up 50 K while you wait for scaling.
I’m heavily invested in most of the energy shares. Kind of kicked myself for not selling down some MEL and CEN at market highs 😀
Right now, I feel that $7 is fair market value. I need to think about whether there could be an opportunity to buy at below market value in the next few months and whether the discount would be greater than any dividend foregone
Just pressed the button on the offer. More green energy for NZ, what's not to like, a reasonable company with a long term future.
You're not wrong to consider the strong possibility of a US-led market correction (the US has begun a long overdue sell-off as we speak!) but you might find these unfashionable utility stocks return to popularity. That's assuming a regular risk-off, economic downturn-led correction, as opposed to another pandemic shock!
Also depends on your investment timeline and portfolio balance, I guess. Trying to time the bottom is just as hard as timing the top, so averaging in whilst keeping some powder dry for later buying opportunities wouldn't hurt.
Yeah, gave myself a bit of a kick for not selling down then as well. Until I remembered my objective was to build a good dividend paying NZX portfolio. I was overweight with term deposits anyway (albeit these days that is merely equivalent to saying I had some ;-) ). So what would I have done with the money if I had sold? Put it in a cash deposit to wait for the next opportunity? I didn't see a plethora of such risk/return opportunities out there that I didn't own already (this was before the capital raising announcement of course). So in the end I was happy not to play the market with this one.
Don't forget to factor in the brokerage saved by taking part in the direct offer as well.Quote:
Right now, I feel that $7 is fair market value. I need to think about whether there could be an opportunity to buy at below market value in the next few months and whether the discount would be greater than any dividend foregone
SNOOPY