http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture...=5&pictureid=6
Hm...a reverse head and shoulders pattern just got confirmed on the hourlies...I'm staying clear for now. Dailies are still in a downtrend.
Printable View
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture...=5&pictureid=6
Hm...a reverse head and shoulders pattern just got confirmed on the hourlies...I'm staying clear for now. Dailies are still in a downtrend.
Should have gone long on that...would have been a nice 40 pips.
Going short now on bouncing off resistance at 0.7870...ideally I would have waited for a breakout from the rectangle, but this was quite a tight stop. Still have this feeling that I'm trying to pick tops :(
New Zealand Dollar Falls as Employment Drops Most in 19 Years
By Tracy Withers
May 8 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's dollar fell for a second day after a government report showed employment contracted in the first quarter, adding to signs that economic growth is slowing and increasing the prospects of an interest-rate cut.
The currency slid to the lowest this week after the report showed employment had its biggest fall in 19 years and the unemployment rate rose to 3.6 percent from 3.4 percent in the first quarter. Employers shed 28,000 workers in the quarter, more than 10 times the decline expected by economists.
``A weak employment number is confirmation of the economic slowdown,'' said Michael Gordon, currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Wellington. ``The market is looking for confirmation of a slowdown to justify selling the kiwi,'' he said, referring to the currency by its nickname.
New Zealand's dollar slid to 77.79 U.S. cents at 10:50 a.m. in Wellington from 78.17 cents before the report and 78.62 cents in late Asian trading yesterday.
Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said yesterday the outlook for the economy has deteriorated. Banks shouldn't tighten lending too much or that might ``exacerbate the contraction,'' Bollard told reporters.
Finance Minister Michael Cullen said yesterday households ``are under serious pressure'' and this month's budget will forecast slowing growth.
The economy may grow 1.5 percent this year, the slowest in a decade, according to the median forecast of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Economy to Slow
Eleven of 16 economists expect Bollard to cut rates from 8.25 percent this year. Four see lower borrowing costs before Sept. 30. A lower official cash rate may curb demand for the currency. New Zealand's benchmark rate is 6.25 percentage points higher than the Federal Reserve's target rate and 7.5 points more than Japan's benchmark.
New Zealand 10-year government bonds were unchanged. The yield on the 6 percent note due December 2017 was at 6.43 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
To contact the reporter on this story: Tracy Withers in Wellington at twithers@bloomberg.net.
There was a quite obvious Butterfly and Gartley
that came together on the intraday time frames.....
I snapped this chart earlier just after the announcment
Hi All
Looking at circa .7550 as low on current channel to exit.
Will cover/reverse on a bounce
May have another wave to go before then.(4/5)
Been in this channel now since March
Anyone else surfing it?
Cheers
Slam
Hi Slam
Yes I was in for 42 pips off the fall
rgds - arco
Maybe turning down again for 5th leg
Target as below
Cheers
Slam
i also got 40 pips on Friday night from 7697 - 7658
it seems to have bearish gartleyd since 7750 making it a sell at 7720 tho I wasnt there to partake (currently 7695)
just closed for another 50 thanks slam
was a bit slow getting in last night , looking for a bit more confirmation which I felt I had at 7686 and have just closed now at 7636....
if I'd playd the gartley with conviction it would have been 80 pips. 50 is ok tho. kiwi hasnt a history of doing me any favours....
Hi Peat
Nice
I'm still holding for .7550ish
Broken .7630 so still possible
Will cover on a bounce (got tight stops)
Cheers
Slam
Closed shorts on spike down at .7560
on bad news "March/Q1 Retail Trade Far Weaker Than Expected"
Let see what happens now hey
Cheers
Slam
any ideas why the kiwi is going up so strongly after the budget.
its not a USD thing....
tax cuts and govt spending may add to inflationary pressures meaning the reserve bank may not drop rates. that would be my guess.
-j