Or maybe just trail a limit sell up from
the rear using a CBL or similar technique.
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Or maybe just trail a limit sell up from
the rear using a CBL or similar technique.
OK, enough dicking around with this consolidation rubbish - lets GO !! - 7000 by Friday - minimum, as a first stop
0.7090 currently
E&OE - DYOR
Xerof
Hi Xerof
The law of alternation is at work.
Eventually when 7080 can be broken
we should get our downside move.
Arco
Saw low .70's before bouncing nicely - like the AUD (see AUD.USD thread) should see a decent rally here to around 72 cents, from where the next decent sell off should commence
Xerof
Seeing the rally back up - possibility of getting back above 7200, maybe 7250 early this week, before it comes off hard
Xerof
Possible H&S forming on the Kiwi, with the Right shoulder coming in around the previously mentioned levels of 7250. Hmmm, I personally don't trust H&S too much. Think best idea is to have a 70 pip trailing stop entry, in case this thing just keeps going topside.
Given its a big data week for USD, (with early talk of a widening deficit again - no surprise there I guess), might pay to play it as suggested.
Read somewhere the USD index had a bearish engulfing candle late last week, and certainly todays early moves suggest that USD might correct lower still
regards
Xerof
This old bird has been solid as a rock lately, since testing that 70 cent level. Still like it heading for mid/late 72's for a tentative sell, if you can trust H&S setups. Will stick with the trailing s/l sell entry scenario
Any firm views there ARCO, contrary or otherwise?
Xerof
very early days, but price action today fits nicely with H&S expectations posted above - a top at .7265 so far today forming Right Shoulder. As I said don't entirely trust H&S formations but here's hoping this ones for real. May take a few days to see a decent result.
Xerof
Xerof
I closed my short position a few days ago,
and will give you my current view tomorrow AM.
arco
Xerof
A Bearish Engulfing Pattern has emerged
overnight.
I calculate possible resistance as 7263
(or failing that 7324).
arco
Quote:
quote:13/4/05 Still like it heading for mid/late 72's for a tentative sell, if you can trust H&S setups. Will stick with the trailing s/l sell entry scenario
short 2 units at 7260, and one added at 7190. Stop if .7280 is bid at this stage. No downside target in mind at this pointQuote:
quote:14/4/05 very early days, but price action today fits nicely with H&S expectations posted above - a top at .7265 so far today forming Right Shoulder. As I said don't entirely trust H&S formations but here's hoping this ones for real. May take a few days to see a decent result.
Xerof
Sometimes there are just too many pairs with
nice looking Gann reversal points, etc.
The 7263 Gann resistance mentioned would have been the
perfect entry......Well done for getting on board Xerof.
I instead jumped aboard the plummeting EUR and
snaffled 80 pips overnight....
Good trading all
arco
Staying short, add another unit to the 3 already held if .7190/7200 seen this week.
That should be enough risk for this puppy, then sit back and wait, with S/L in place of course[8D][8D]
Confidence for a strong bearish decline confirmed by a break of .7015, the neckline of the H&S formation cited in earlier postings
Xerof
Added another unit last night at .7195. Now the full quota short. S/L if goes 7280 bid.
Xerof
Good Morning Xerof
Possible resistance circa 7202 broke with quite
a strong move negative US$ overnight.
Further resistance could be seen around 7263 with
major circa 7324 where various lines converge.
Oscillator has turned up positive off the centre line (zero).
However, you are obviously still feeling confident,
and sitting with a manageable position if 7280 happens
to fall.
arco
Arco,
just on the QT, I'm not that confident having seen the early morning price action, but will leave S/L unadjusted, as 7263 might be sufficient to contain again.
Xerof
Good Morning Xerof
With a high of 7292 around 6 a.m
I presume the SL was hit - unless
you deceided to move it higher?
arco
stopped out Arco - looks like it might have another half cent rally left in it before down, but still keen to be short so will run a trailing stop if/once it gets above 7320
regards
Xerof
resold late this afternoon, with a tight s/l just above 7310. Still believe its about to roll over, so have given it another go
Xerof
edit: if I get stopped again:(, will again resell at 7335;)
if RBNZ (as most people expect) keeps rates steady next thursday it could come down a little... so in the lead up to the announcement maybe there will be this pressure downwards due to "the market" pricing it in...
Xerof
Nice divergence on the ocsillator and that little run
North appears to just have been a test of polarity reversal.
(Positive becomes negative).
The top on NZD has also met the Cup and Handle target.
arco
excellent - so are you short now Arco?
stopped on a bulls**t run on stops above 73 to 7330 - lasted all of 1 minute before back below 73. Will reassess Monday.
Xerof
resold at .7319, will add at .7335, .7355 and S/L on the lot above .7380
interesting to see what will happen come thurs
just might join u there xerof...
Good Morning Xerof
Apologies for the delay in replying which was
due to being away over the holiday weekend.
Re NZD. No have not shorted yet, - will revue all
pairs this morning for opportunities.
GBP short position was left on over the w/e with
wide stop and is +45 currently.
arco
Got another unit of Kiwi out at .7335 Monday night (lucky I suspect, as was high bid on Saxo platform)
Need a break below 7260 to add confidence - hearing stops under 7260[:p][:p], but also buy stops above 7340[xx(][xx(]
Xerof
Xerof
All appears to be going well now.......are
you planning to hold these for the long term?
arco
If it can get through tomorrows event risk without too much of a bounce, will be trying to extract maximum value from this trade.
Would like to see AUD clearly break below 7770 as a backup to a general commodity bloc move. USD/CAD is looking supportive already, and a clear break below 7180 will confirm target of circa 67 cents IMO
Also shorted AUD at 7793 (missed your ideal resistance)
But early days...
cheers
Xerof
RBNZ delivered slightly more hawkish statement than expected, but bounce so far has been limited to the 7245 resistance area.
IMO a break above resistance at 7250 would lead to retest of last weeks highs, so have lowered stop on shorts to .7260 for today.
Elsewhere the USD is looking quite bid - note reaction to poor durable goods data saw kneejerk selloff, followed quickly by a turnaround, back to predata levels.
So Kiwi should take next direction from USD/majors from here, once the MPS impact moves into the background.
If we see another retest of the rising trendline off 7015 (currently at last nights low of 7195), then it should break through for a decent downside run
Xerof
Morning Xerof
7202 was an expected support level which
still needs to be broken.
Oscillator still above the zero.
Looking for circa 7263 to contain any upward move.
arco
Arco, have deferred to your excellent fine tuning skills and adjusted stop to 7265 !!
cheers
Xerof
Xerof
That figure is a minor Gann calc which fits in
nicely with the support area from 22nd April.
(i.e - Support can become resistance).
Are you managing the trade with a hard stop
or a mental stop ?
arco
Hard stop - discipline - cash management - live to sell again...etc etc
Xerof
ah i c whats wrong with the programe
on 17th march 2005, the highest price was 1.3480
thats why my graph looks weird wheneva i use a long term graph..
xerof/acro, does ur NZD/USD chart also have that price on 17th march?!
No, but I would have sold some there matey, if I'd seen it.:D:D:D
I presume you're talking about the graphs you're using on your platform. Send them an email and ask them to filter it out.
Xerof
My charts are showing a high of .7451 on 7/3
On some charting packages you can amend the days
figures yourself.
Let me know if you need OHLC.
arco
stopped shorts out at 7265 for +178 pips equivalent on 1 unit (held 2 units short at 7319 plus 1 unit short at 7335)
resold 2 units at 7285, with tight stop at 7310.
IMO, over 7330/40, then we head for new highs, but willing to give current structure a chance to evolve.
Xerof
3 may (tuesday next week..(wednesday NZ?))
FOMC statement
if they raise interest rates, cliterus paribus, the NZDUSD should fall... hmmmm
Quote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
My charts are showing a high of .7451 on 7/3
On some charting packages you can amend the days
figures yourself.
Let me know if you need OHLC.
arco
OHLC? explain?