Double bottom over what period? It's the lowest against the USD in 5 years.
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Double bottom over what period? It's the lowest against the USD in 5 years.
Yeah I wouldn't be fighting this LT downtrend (No double bottom in sight on the daily charts). Potential hikes by the FED and cuts by RBNZ to come. Might get a ST bounce if Greece sorts itself out.
I'm calling circa 60 by year end.
Attachment 7454
NZD/USD bottomed at 66.60 at midnight on the 2nd then rebounded off 66.75 at 2am on the 4th to close later that day up at 66.90. It may drop a little tomorrow to test 66.75 but don't be surprised if it rises from there throughout the week. The AUD/USD is also ripe for a rebound.
Given Thursday morning's 6% drop in GDT prices, I'd be very surprised if another 25bps is not already factored into the NZD/USD market price.
Also bullish on NZD/GBP.
Discl: long
Have a look at the .6280 double bottom on the NZD/CHF on the night of June 30th and morning of July 4th. The CHF has been strengthening more than the USD partly due to fears about China's equity market volatility these past few days. If and when that settles, there's good percentage gains to be made on the NZD/CHF cross. I'm now long with a stop at .6274.
A no vote in Greece tonight could see more risk off & potential further sell off in NZD & AUD as there is flight to the USD.
On the slippery slope again b!oody Greeks .6650 !
There's the double bottom you chaps were looking for @66.60. It went lower to 66.54 for about 2 mins before shooting up to now sit at around 66.80. That's a bullish bounce in my view. Even the Greeks can't push this one down now. Onward and upward.
I'm also now bullish on the AUD/USD - anything under 75c has to attract some psychological support given that a) this past week it's dropped from a high of 77.40...and b) this is the lowest it's been since Feb 2009 in the depths of the GFC. And so I also bought into it this morning before it bounced up to now sit at around 74.88.
Go you good thing...
Struggling to find much significance in movements up and down over such a small time frame versus the 25% down trend running since September last year. There must have been hundreds if not thousands of such double bottoms/tops etc over the last 12 months.
The Reserve Bank wanted to get the NZD down to protect the economy in light of its exposure to dropping GDT prices. A lower than expected CPI/Inflation figure also paved the way for a cut. Since their 25bps OCR cut last month, the NZD has dropped a lot against most major currencies. This is also thanks to the plummeting AUD ahead of tomorrow's RBA interest rate announcement (which more analysts are now forecasting to drop).
The market has brought the NZD down to about where the NZRB hoped it would go after their OCR cut (down about 8%). Why cut the rate again already when they would be wiser to instead do that later after the NZD has lifted a bit? I liken it to the gopher arcade game where you wait until it rears its ugly head before hammering it down. There's no point in hammering it down again until it's lifted.
IMO a second 25bps OCR cut is already factored in, and we may well see no change until later this year. The contrarian in me is trading against current market expectation.
BC
Ballsiest move I ever saw Mav ....
BC they are not just cutting the OCR to lower the Kiwi , and therefore lift the return on exports . They are also cutting it to ease the repayment burden on the over leveraged dairy farmers, not to mention a few hefty Auckland mortgages ...Best way for a central bank to operate is to get ahead of the curve , not behind when it's too late . What's a little bit of inflation between friends .
Big lift over the past 12 hours for the NZD against most currencies, esp the GBP and AUD. Dropping back a little today but that was a momentum shift and so expect another rise over the next few hours. The worm has turned.
...it looks like it's starting now off around 67c - get in.
Now 67.40 (almost half a cent lift in just half an hour) - did you get in?
AUD also lifting off some good employment numbers and Chinese CPI lift. Go you good thing(s).
Make that 67.55. I've just now sold...to ride the next wave.
Nice trade BC, although I would say its a dangerous game to play the wrong side of a very strong trend and any bounce like we have just seen is a good opportunity to sell.
You're behind the times, Daytr - take a look at the graph. Downward resistance was broken yesterday (8pm NZST) at around 66.70.
Attachment 7469
It's onward and upward from here. You won't buy the NZD cheaper against the GBP, CHF and USD than it was yesterday, for a very long time...IMO.
Big call & maybe you are right, but not into bottom picking & would rather see a clearer trend.
The Kiwi has come a very long way. In saying that if you look at pre EURO which caused massive weakness in the USD this level would have been considered high for the NZD.
Perhaps the Kiwi maybe seen as a bit of a safe haven as so far away from where the chaos is, however history is against it.
I think the RBNZ will lower rates by another 75-100bps yet & I would suggest at most half of that is factored in.
You may see more upside tonight after the FED as I think they will be kicking the can down the road on interest rate hikes, but its a bit of a guess.
I'm with Daytr on this one. seems like a solid downtrend in the kiwi. 88 to just over 66 with no higher lows or higher highs in all of that range that I can see (depending on your time frame).
What's your target BC? will be interested to see how far this corrects (or trends as the case may be).
What data are you looking at? There have been higher highs with all of the NZD/USD, NZD/GBP, NZD/CHF and NZD/JPY four times these past two days. Bother to do your research before you post.
Here's the NZD/USD chart for this week:
Attachment 7472
I'm looking at the daily chart BC (as shown). and just NZD/USD as the thread is titled.
Thanks for the chart. I see what you are saying, but lets keep this friendly eh. we all have different time frames and TA.
I'm curious on your long target though. I cant tell if you are expecting 68 or 88.
I'm still targeting 63c in the medium term - i.e next 3-6 months. (just my "research")
I wouldn't mind seeing a little higher before I short. I think its possible we see high 0.68s and that might be a nice level about there.
Nice break below 66. Looks like the trend lower will continue. Poor gdt reading this morning.