good on ya slam
the prospect of higher rates will create some buyers for our dear wee $ and this makes it a bit of a scary short... tho its would appear to be struggling at this level....
Printable View
good on ya slam
the prospect of higher rates will create some buyers for our dear wee $ and this makes it a bit of a scary short... tho its would appear to be struggling at this level....
I mentioned the 'bullish flavor' yesterday, and that resulted in a maximum of circa 70 pips for brave souls who took the opportunity.
Alas I was not one of them [V]
arco
Went Long again last night
See how we go:)
Currently +17 (whoohoo)
Cheers
Slam
i was about to short actually
im waiting for it to break pass the 6938 point be4 i long it
Closed long for 68pips
will look to re-enter after this drop
Cheers
Slam
Minor Gann at 6958
Long again for another go at 7.
maybe hard to crack, this week;)
Cheers
Slam
Morning all
Well got to 7 but couldn't hold
Still think it is a long but will wait till this retrace is over. Formed a double bottom late fri so may be in place
Cheers
Slam
Despite earlier bids from a German bank [NZD/USD] has failed to gain much momentum and lies close to the base of a rough 0.6950-0.7035 ascending range. Additionally, a recent increase in Uridashi issuance has failed to give the Kiwi any significant prop which, coupled with a recovering Usd post-NFP, suggests the lower bound could give way. While technical targets lie around 0.6925 and 0.6900, more significant losses are likely to prove difficult in the face of an NZ rate hike expected Oct 27. Immediate relief would come from a break above the highlighted 0.7000-0.7015 region, though this has put up strong resistance in the past few sessions
Requires the patience of Job, but I'm looking for a retrace to 6895, 50% fib, which if seen, might be worth a small long for 7050, possibly 7200
Alternatively, sell 7050 if seen directly
Xerof
According to the Danes the commodity currencies are an accident waiting to happen
Martin says sell anything over 70 and sooner or later you'll make money. I tend to agree.
Yes I agree with the Danes this time, - the turn is not far away with the action playing around the Butterfly net and a polarity line assisting with resistance.
The points in brackets show my reasoning for last comments, but can also see the other possibility which you may be following Arco (Blue).
Thought my forming bearish butterfly had cleaner lines.[:I][:I]
http://img433.imageshack.us/img433/9...artleys0ox.png
Let me know if I'm way off the mark......
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Yes I see when you are coming from. Its very tempting but I try not to get too bogged down with too many incomplete patterns.
I am trying to work more on completed patterns and then I can calculate a target, so my selection will look different to yours.
There are 2 completed patterns within this chart, and the blue box is the target for reversal.
Marry that up wuth a few confirming indicators and Ganns yer uncle and Fannies yer aunt. ;)
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101105_185.gif
Thanks coach, very helpful
shorted at .6959
+20
will have to sleep tho.. so have a 30 pip trailing stop in place. hmm not much chance of making too much using that but it will minimize losses, and leave some exposure to the downside.
theres an article in the herald re NZ interest rates
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/st...ectID=10349785
and, from the platforms news feed :
Stops tripped under 0.6950 have sent [NZD/USD] lower in tandem with Aud/Usd, leaving the cross trapped in narrow ranges. Technical players will be eyeing the break of 0.6950, which marked the base of an ascending range, and will now be looking for further losses towards technical targets in the 0.6870 and 0.6895 areas. However, bids noted in the 0.6900-15 area will provide an initial obstacle to these hopes. Although a recent increase in Uridashi issuance has failed to provide the Kiwi with any significant prop, the downside is likely to become increasingly supported ahead of the Oct 27 rate meeting, at which a 25bps hike is widely expected. There is little on the data front, with ANZ job ads Weds, though the ANZ PMI due Thurs is likely to be the focus of significant interest.
Repelled very nicely from the Butterfly net. My auto short got hit overnight, so I am in - boots and all.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101205_205.gif
Well done Peat and Arco
Arco, is your second completed formation in the chart above an example of a gartley which mutated into a butterfly?
If so, I can see why one would need to be careful with standing as a buyer at the 'expected' gartley turn level. I guess thats why you prefer to have trailing stop entries once the first level is reached.
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Yes, most Butterflies go through the Gartley stage and that is where the danger lies. Just one good reason for care with entry unless you have other compelling evidence to confirm a possible reversal. (e.g Gann, EW, other structures).
arco
taken out with this bounce, for minimal gain.... aaargh what a pain
Surprisingly muted reaction to this little gem from Dr B
Perhaps the market has read through him - trying to lower currency expectations before he raises interest rates?Quote:
quote:The high exchange rate had also contributed to the current account deficit, by placing pressure on export sector revenues, whilst making imports relatively cheaper. Dr Bollard said the exchange rate appeared to have reached an unsustainable level. Overseas investors in New Zealand dollar instruments should also consider the downside scenario when making their investment decisions.
My formative alternatives posted 11/10 have reached the zone of decision....
Xeroff to the pub shortly
most people are thinkin that he will raise....
but if for some reason he doesnt, and there are a few indicators starting to show that it may not be necessary, then that would be unexpected and would cause the biggest reaction
but yeh trying to talk it down does suggest hes nervous about the ramifications of ramping up the yield.
shorted at .6954 another bite at the cherry
got out in the + but not much..... still theres always next week.
went out for a drink and missed my 30-40 target.... oh well.
seems like this has broken the down trendline but the upside cant be too great in my opinion.
have a good weekend everyone!!!!!!!
Welcome to a new week guys
This might be worth a short in the 7015 to 7050 zone if seen
http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/8893/nzdusd6tv.png
Xerof
Despite stops being tripped above 0.7010 and 0.7020 there has not been and significant pick up in [NZD/USD]'s upside momentum. Technical players though will be eyeing the break of the upper bound of a descending range around 0.6990 as the signal for a further possible upleg towards a longer term trendline around 0.7040. An increase in yield related flows has been noted today as high yielders continue to return to favour following the interest rate jitters of earlier in the month. Nzd/Jpy in particular has lifted to new 8-year highs above 80.50, with this likely to continue ahead of Thursday's RBNZ rate decision when a 25bps hike, to 7.0%, is widely tipped. The Aud/Nzd cross, however, remains stuck in tight ranges. It may need a break below the 1.07 level here to signal renewed gains in the main pair.
Went long at 7007
Nice run sofar +32
Cheers
Slam
take your profits quick imho
Lots of resistance levels clustered overhead, between 60 and 90
Gartley formed, 78.6% retracement.....
http://img486.imageshack.us/img486/2946/nzdusd9pv.png
Sold a bit at 35, will sell again at 50
Probably what will happen is the trendlines will crack and the Gartley will evolve into a butterfly, but will give it a go[8D][8D]
Xerof
Closed for 28pips
scalping today:D
Cheers
Slam
Edit: Typo 28
Again here, I sold , still in currently +20
but heres an outlook from my platform, that disagrees -
[NZD/USD] has been knocked to sub-0.7000 levels in the Usd's rebound. Technical players will, though, be eyeing the 0.6985 range boundary which appeared to trigger solid gains on Thursday when it gave way. While this level holds intact such players are likely to attempt to establish new longs. While the resurgent Usd is causing the Kiwi problems, support is coming from the Nzd/Jpy cross which is currently around new 8-year highs in the upper 81s as Japanese investors seek yield. Given widespread expectations of an RBNZ rate hike on Oct 27, bidding this latter cross or selling Aud/Nzd would appear to be the best way to play expected Nzd strength.
chopped kiwi short yesterday for a miserable 25 pips - didn't like the fact that only interest in the market yesterday was Uridashi buying interest.
Will look to resell before MPS though, as market has priced 50 point hike in already
Xerof
Gann just above circa 7080 may halt further northbound progress.
Seems Major Gann has enlisted a new recruit, and may be able to stand his men down [8D][8D]
Quote:
quote:10:05 25Oct2005 RTRS-NZ FINMIN SAYS KIWI DOLLAR AT UNSUSTAINABLE LEVEL, SHARP DEPRECIATION POSSIBLE
10:05 25Oct2005 RTRS-NZ FINMIN SAYS OVERSEAS INVESTORS HAVE EXCESSIVE FAITH AND SHOW IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE IN NZ DOLLAR
10:05 25Oct2005 RTRS-NZ FINMIN SAYS WOULD HOPE TO SEE GRADUAL DEPRECIATION IN NZ DOLLAR
10:05 25Oct2005 RTRS-NZ FINMIN SAYS SEES POSSIBILITY OF A HARD LANDING FOR NEW ZEALAND ECONOMY
10:05 25Oct2005 RTRS-NZ FINMIN SAYS CONTINUED TIGHT GOVT. FISCAL POLICY NEEDED TO COUNTER IMBALANCED ECONOMY
Hi Xerof
It seems to have had an impact aready ......long red candle on the 30 min. I have short orders in above and just below.
arco
Updating the Butterfly position.
The old blue box is working now as resistance and there is the Gann resistance calculation circa 7080, so I dont expect to see any break through that.
2 Butterflies now working back to back, and south bound move imminent IMO.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102505_156.gif
arco
Here's a chart I created yesterday but didn't get time to post.
As you will know, the action has already entered the potential reversal area with a overnight high of 7063.
arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102505a_202.gif
The Majors new recruit only firing blanks Arco - will now have to rely on Gann's army at 80.
To be fair on NCO Cullen, he has managed to knock the tops of a few of the NZD crosses.
Xerof
One last meagre dash north for freedom perhaps and then Gann may take NZD's guts for garters....
.........starter short on at 7070 in case NZD has the power to get near the major defences.
arco - twiddling my thumbs [^]
Major Gann @ 7080 appears to have scared off the advance with a high of 7071.
I amended my entry to 7075 which didnt get hit, and finally went short on my trailing entry at 7053.
Currently +33
Just a weeny bit more for the Piggy Bank
arco
Yeah, same here - 75 didn't make the cut. I thought it might have at least waited until this morning....[V]
Oh well, at least you've got something to maintain the interest - I'm on sidelines on everything for now, so will get back to looking for things that aren't there... :D:D
Xerof
i find it incredible that kiwi reacted to the rates announcement like this
isnt buy the rumour , sell the fact a bit passe
Hi All
Pete, maybe some were looking for a 50 rise not a 25, either way it was built in already
Sold some at 65
Cheers
Slam
there was no way it would be 50 - that would be madness given the lagging effects of these policy adjustments.
look at her climb again
FOREX : "The ultimate mind-f*ck"
Now, don't be nervous... and admittedly it is a pretty nice looking Gartley, but need to keep the alternative in the frame. Red wing.
http://img464.imageshack.us/img464/8301/nzdusd4as.png
Xerof
Well, so far seems to still be battling major Gann around 80 level, so for insurance have sold a sliver at 7084
Xerof
I left the old short order in at 7075....
Major Gann we are relying on you ;)
yes i had to short at .7085
but it didnt get me anywhere coz b/e stop got hit lol
kind of looks like therres more life in the beast yet
I was confident - flying without a stop. [:0] + 6
Peat - IMO you shouldnt move a stop to b/e until you have circa 50 pips. At that point you can if you wish also sell half, placing the balance at b/e. Its a guaranteed no loss situation then because even if the stop is hit you still get 25 pips average.
arco
i just wanted to go to bed , and ensure it didnt go bad. (Aint got many pips left to lose) Euro was looking uppish, so there was always the chance of it heading north. Note the Herald today quotes dealers suggesting it will go to .72 and even Max thinks .71 or .712 as likely topsQuote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
Peat - IMO you shouldnt move a stop to b/e until you have circa 50 pips.
Certainly shows there is that possibility on the weekly.........
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102805w_200.gif
Morning all
Bit of a tussle going on round the trend tine circa 7020
Need this to break to continue new short, or its back up for another go at it maybe
Cheers
slam
Updating chart of 25th Quote - ...south bound move imminent ......
Here we see the nice fall over the past week giving circa 270 pips so far with more to come IMO.
GTA - arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/110505butt_533.gif
[NZ WEEK AHEAD] Mkt whispers that Gov Bollard will execute an aggressive 50bps hike by year end in light of the recent job data, will be put to the test when REINZ releases its Oct House sales/price data sometime next wk, and Sept/Q3 retail trade data are released on Tues. After Bollard's constant preaching, the housing data will be high on the Gov's radar. Relief will only come from a substantial drop in sales and house price inflation, but we expect the c/bk to become even more frustrated on the day. Meanwhile median f/c's are centered on Sept retail sales correcting for Aug's 0.2% rise by slipping -0.5% on the mth, but with underlying pace to remain robust, and Q3 volumes to rise a solid 1.4% vs 1.3% in Q2.
i've closed out gone flat
Gentlemen, lay your bets....
I thought the blue formation held the most promise, but stumbled across the green formation in the wee small hours last night and now not entirely convinced. Squared up quite a few units I held from .6900,.6884,.6843 and 6817 at .6816 and will watch how this unfolds.
Any strong views out there? (I know the market seems extremely bearish, but......)
http://img398.imageshack.us/img398/7005/nzdusd7sm.png
Xerof
are you trying to be an economist ;)
the question is : will USD strength win out over hawkish Bollard?
On the one hand...I might be....
Well, flat now on Kiwi, and pleased I cut when I did.
I'm still in the bullish USD camp generally, but waiting for clearer signs at this stage in respect of the K1W1.
Xerof
ps, looking back at my second last chart posting 27/10, I got indecisive then too - about 24 hours before it collapsed[:o)][:o)]
Well, both formations still in play. I think 6890/95 will determine which way this goes. If its higher, it can probably go to 6950+, but I have two lines of Gann resistance at circa 6900.
Well done to the "2011 bid" front row - Pinetree and Tana as excellent props for Helen the hooker :D:D
Xerof
winning the world cup must have bolstered the kiwi !!
doubled up my kiwi long when it came back to my b/e point 0.6843 and closed one out this morning at .6880 , (yes a bit of a scalp but it all helps) and holding the other for a loftier target say, .6930 ish
[NZ WK AHEAD] This wk's calendar load is undeniably heavy, and expected to be no "Thanksgiving" for the c.bk; with Oct migration data due Tues, NBNZ Business Outlook and Q3 Capital Good Price Index on Wed, Q3 PPI featuring Thurs and Oct trade data Frid. Sept qtr capital goods price index and PPI data will be of main focus to an increasingly edgy central bank, but we expect both to heighten rather than soothe its concerns over growing domestic inflationary pressures. NBNZ's biz outlook should also highlight a disturbing pick up in inflation expectations. Oct trade data ends the week off, with trends pointing to a wider annual trade deficit, weighed down by the strong NZD and surging oil prices.
Different time frame from my last posting, but looking like the longer term Gartley is in play.
If it is, it should be able to achieve 6950, where AB = CD. At 6950, of course, one then might get butterflies in the stomach....
The ol' bird is certainly showing amazing resilience, especially against European currencies.
http://img461.imageshack.us/img461/8881/nzdusd7uj.png
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Yes I have been watching that Gartley...waiting in
the wings.
First target circa 6948-6955
arco
Quote:
quote:it should be able to achieve 6950
FWIW
A couple of respected EW commentators are both convinced that last nights spike high to 6919 was probably enough, and that downside is now imminent.
Sell any rally I guess, with stops above 6965.
Xerof
yes its struck me that playing this correction was relatively higher risk esp as we reached the top of it so I have been out this week. Looking to re-enter USD longs tho .... perhaps a bit late....
[NZ] yield appetite appears endless, with another two offshore eurobond issuances announced today on top of IADB's 2 tranche NZ$642m uridashi issuance yest. Germany's KFW is seen offering NZ$200m bonds via a reopening of its 6.375% global paper due Feb 2015 for settlement Nov 30; whilst France's Cades to offer a NZ$200m 7% 2009 paper for settlement on the same day. Pricing for both is expected later today. Meanwhile japanese demand ensued in the local mkts today, suggesting more uridashi bonds are in the pipeline before year end.
Yes Peat, Fibanacci timewise, there's still 2 or 3 days left for a possible further spike, if it's going to happen....
Quote:
quote:Looking to re-enter USD longs tho ....
http://img456.imageshack.us/img456/2787/nzdusd2ah.png
Oh yes, and NZ current account figures released tomorrow
[xx(][xx(][xx(][xx(]
Xerof
And Peat, I see we have GoldCstMarty offering at 6956 for today......
;);)
Xerof
oh really - it was "anything that began with a 7" previously...
I havent kept up with FF last coupla days... sometimes the infinite fx blog overwhelms me. and due to not passing your test I'm still at the dayjob.
well hes not far out so far, but the little flightless fulla is certainly showing resilience....
what time is the trade data out exactly?
10.45
very resilient, against everything....
I'm short at 6952, but not too confident right now. Have a tight stop on it in case it goes to the 78.6% level (or higher)
Xerof
i'm at work short from 6937 - no stop [:o)]
can you post the figures when they come out. cheers
882 vs 830 expected so slightly worse
no real immediate reaction - wait for the pollies comments.....
i guess , as Jack Crooks from BlackSwanTrading recently said, "its all about yield"
same as the USD huh no one cares we can never pay all that money back [?]
hmmmmmm
well now I'm unsure with this
doesnt seem like the trade figures are having any impact , and max has changed y'days tune..... but the MACD is still looking down to me....
wot ya reckon xerof....
Well, I'll respect the Gartley until proven otherwise.
Xerof
i bailed on this short a few hours ago....6951
there must be some real flow comin in for it to buck the overall US$ strength trend
what do you think of todays special report Xerof?
Peat, wasn't attached to my email so haven't got it yet, but can guess what he's going to say - correction over and on to retest highs around 7450?
Haven't been around much this week to follow anything closely - just back in today so will have a look at everything over the weekend and maybe put something up on Monday
But kiwi is ballistic on crosses..... Bollard must be poohing his pants
Xerof
and the rest [:0]Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Xerof
correction over and on to retest highs around 7450?
as suggested elsewhere Bollard chould try some other avenues.
he could actually intervene... hell , lots of other CB's do.
that would be philosopically outrageous perhaps , but maybe pragmatism should sway.
General qestion to anyone.
What other options are available to him.
Their only tool, other than intervention is the OCR. Anything else would need to come from the Pollies. Their stated policy on intervention is to 'take the froth off' highs and lows.
IMO intervention would have to be a last resort, and would only achieve a 2 or 3 cent reaction, unless their timing was impecable.
I do recall in early 1994, when the NZD was being trashed they raised rates 2 or 3 times on the same day. That stopped the rot dead in its tracks. We saw rates go from around 4% to 9% inside 12 months, and the NZD began a multi month rally from that very day.
Maybe they could [u]ease</u> rates in the same manner, (although the timing is surely not right just yet), but it wouldn't surprise me to see that happen in 2006, if the TWI was at 80 and the economy was experiencing a hard landing.
Other than that, give the Finance portfolio to Winston[8D][8D]
Xerof
wow that would be amazing to see, several rates rises in a day!! That would make forex trading very intense. Of course no retail market then.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Xerof
Their only tool, other than intervention is the OCR. Anything else would need to come from the Pollies. Their stated policy on intervention is to 'take the froth off' highs and lows.
IMO intervention would have to be a last resort, and would only achieve a 2 or 3 cent reaction, unless their timing was impecable.
I do recall in early 1994, when the NZD was being trashed they raised rates 2 or 3 times on the same day. That stopped the rot dead in its tracks. We saw rates go from around 4% to 9% inside 12 months, and the NZD began a multi month rally from that very day.
Maybe they could [u]ease</u> rates in the same manner, (although the timing is surely not right just yet), but it wouldn't surprise me to see that happen in 2006, if the TWI was at 80 and the economy was experiencing a hard landing.
Other than that, give the Finance portfolio to Winston[8D][8D]
Xerof
I was kinda wondering about the actual mechnnism for CB intervention. Guess at the end of the day hes just a trader like everyone else, cept maybe more with the goal of getting maximum impact for his spend.
And hah! , do you worry about losing as a CB. Damm I'm down 40 yards. Do you care?
How much would it take to move the Kiwi market. Surely you'd have to have a lot of courage to try to stem the Yen inflow. Deeeeeeeeeeeep pockets.
-i think he'll raise it again
-do some OMO (open mouth operations)
-not intervene
-unless he raises it by 50bp
-and interest rate will continue to be a floor under an overvalued NZD... until signals of lower interest rate break the floor
+what happens when the Uridashis/eurokiwis mature? will they /can they roll them on or do they have to sell NZDs?
Intervention can be very profitable for CB's Peat. I think the RBA has made a packet in the past as they are usually either selling at highs or buying at lows, and of course, they are usually right!
The BOJ has done pretty well too, but sometimes it has taken a while for their positions to come right for them, but eventually they get their way. I think last time they intervened was around 110, and it went to 104 before turning. They'll be offering around 125 I would guess.
The last major cycle before that saw them bidding at 85.00ish, then offering at 135ish - not a bad turn on a few hundred billion USD (plus forward points)
Zyreon - yes, no doubt about it, he'll tighten again, and probably remain hawkish as well.
The 'special report' Peat was referring to is basically calling for new highs above 7500, with 9000+ being an EW target[xx(][xx(][xx(]
I'll try to reproduce his wave count on my own charts and post it over the weekend (not an EW expert myself, but respect the power of the waves)
7500 is achievable shorter term I guess - 9000+ will need the USD to collapse against everything.
The Uridashi's etc may or may not roll - it'll depend on the trend at the time, but in the past they have only rolled if the currency is in an uptrend.
At the end of the day, these only work if the issuer can achieve attractive sub libor funding once its swapped back to their currency of choice, usually USD (which requires a swap curve well above bonds), and if there is appetite for high yield at retail.
Its the retail market that has all the currency risk, not the issuer, and they either don't understand the risk or don't care...yield rules OK;);)
As well as these issues, we also have momentum models kicking into buy mode as we break higher and higher levels, mainly on the crosses, real money accounts, who play 'lets squeeze the export sector' just before the start of the seasonal peak every year like a broken record, and of course finally we have the local corporates who are probably undercovered (as usual) and are now squealing.
Its a potent combo if you have maturities coinciding with an economic downturn, as well as a down-trending currency - maybe mid/late 2006 will produce that scenario, but in the meantime have to keep an open mind...
Xerof
And Peat, BOJ intervention is usually done via a panel of banks, who quote them well out of market and just go smash the price. Not sure about RBA - think in the past they have been seen direct via brokers but could be wrong on that.
well... on the long kiwi thing.... so far so good..... quite a whip up on Fri nite huh!
note that Gold Coast Martin wrote a very long diatribe on the global-view forex forum over the weekend, which has relevance. Hes still adamant the Kiwi is a sell , but then he said the USD/CAD was a long at 1.1900 as well.
The solution in my opinion is to opt out of the agreement that residential mortgage lending requires banks to put up only 50% of the capital required to lend to any corporate. This would immediately raise the cost of lending to retail without effecting corporate Sector, but aparently we have some agreeement with other central banks to abide by the Basle rules which govern such things.
Dubdee, you're quite right, on all counts, but there is the issue of securitisation of mortgage books to counter as well, which takes residential mortgages off banks books anyway
wot u mean by that ?
Dove?
yep, although some might see it as still hawkish
probably 'more balanced' is a better description, but there's no bird to represent that:D:D
only went .25, removed overt comments regarding more hikes to come, and whilst still concerned about demand side inflation risks, the statement has a more balanced look about it by talking about downside risks to their forecasts. The forecasts themselves imply no more hikes
Xerof
i read his "Whether further tightening is needed will depend on the extent to which housing and demand pressures show signs of moderating over the months ahead." to possibly mean we'll sit on our hands for a while now.
At least somebody agrees with me:D:DQuote:
quote:RBNZ puts the death knell on the Kiwi, we think we have seen the last rate hike in their cycle now.
Craig Ferguson, Senior Currency Strategist ANZ
Well, we wrote in last night’s report that the fate of the Kiwi lay in the RBNZ’s hands. Our motto is “never bet against the RBA”, and in this sense, we can extend that concept to the NZ context, and now state that we also “should never bet against the RBNZ”. One reason for this is that they own the monetary policy stick, and can often use it to follow up any public comments they make. We didn’t really consider last night the outcome for the NZD if the RBNZ hiked and then were dovish, as we really didn’t think they were overly concerned as yet that NZ GDP growth was decelerating fast enough to offset inflationary pressures. However you can see what the market’s reaction to that dovishness means for the NZD in the price action this morning.
The feature of their statement accompanying their policy hike this morning was the more dovish tone, the balance now between domestic growth and inflation risks as dictators of future rate hikes, and the rising risks of a possible hard landing. No reference was made, as in the last statement, that further rate hikes would be likely, and while the RBNZ said that at this stage no easing prospect is foreseeable, we believe that NZ rates will be around 5.5% in 2007 as the easing cycle, when it comes, will be extremely aggressive.
The implications are pretty clear for the currency. The RBNZ have used the policy stick to provide the death knell for the NZDUSD and NZDAUD rates. Thankfully we suggested last night that shorts should be entered in NZD around .71 cents. We believe those shorts should be kept and added to, as the next stop for NZDUSD is .6650 and then much lower levels.
Xerof
http://img389.imageshack.us/img389/2934/elevator5fs.jpgQuote:
quote:7/12 - where's the door............
Looks like a few have decided to use this instead.....:D:D
Xerof
First look at NZD for the year - up the stairs again....
Multiple Ganns and 61.8% fib looming at around 70 cents, and in EW terms, perhaps in wave 4, but leave that to the experts......
http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/143/nzd3tf.png
Xerof