Appreciate the commentary Snoopy, my average buy is a few cents less than yours.
Neither buying or selling at current level, would like a few more tho if the price does drop at some stage.
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Appreciate the commentary Snoopy, my average buy is a few cents less than yours.
Neither buying or selling at current level, would like a few more tho if the price does drop at some stage.
It is interesting to look back on past predictions, and in particular the one above that I drew up four years ago. Yes I did consider this valuation 'invalid' a year later (because of a deterioration in business metrics) , but did not and still do not consider in invalid at the time I did it.
My prediction back then was earnings per shares of 17.3 for FY2019. Based on my modelled PE at the time of 12.3, this implies a projected share price today of:
17.3 x 12.3 = $2.18
My forecast gross dividend was 10,1c/0.72 = 14cps. The actual gross dividend paid over the year was 15cps.
At the half year result, CEO David Mair is predicting a net profit of $29m to $31m. Based on 192.806m shares on issue that equates to 15-16eps. With the shares currently trading at $2.14, this represents a FY2019 PE ratio of 13-14.
My share price prediction from four years ago was high, but only 2% high. If I was going to make an error it would be in that direction after I subsequently decided in 2016 that business conditions had deteriorated. For some who think it is impossible to forecast a share price four years into the future this is an extraordinary result. I prefer to think of it as vindication of what is a powerful valuation technique.
SNOOPY
Details of transactions and events giving rise to relevant event
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...705/297648.pdf
“Details of the transactions or other events requiring disclosure:
From 21 August 2018 to 28 March 2019, ACC had the following aggregated on-market
transactions in Skellerup Holdings Ltd:
• Purchases of 2,739,690 shares for consideration of NZD $5,682,591.69
• Sales of 559,206 shares for consideration of NZD $1,164,231.98 “
Good to see ACC shareholding go up. Can anyone explain this to me tho,
Why are there purchases and sales ?
Given they were already >5%.... why can they make a
declaration in March 19 for Aug 18 to Mar 19 ?
Only need to disclose when they have a movement of 1% or more in their holding
On 21 August they had 5.465% and even though buying and selling since then they never went over 6.465% or under 5.000% (when they would have disclosed ceasing to be a SSH)
Obviously on March 28th they must have purchased enough to to go over that 6.465% so had to tell us
They probably have bough and sold and many days in this period ....would be a bit nonsensical to disclose every trade so the powers to be decided 1% movements would be enough
Clear as mud?
Thanks. Yes, that’s clear and makes sense.
Appreciated.
Skellerup still in the long game of buying up niche companies with a connection to rubber products. The Nexus acquisition today looks to be a good fit with Skellerup company culture.
https://www.nexusfoams.com/
Purchase price of $6.5m might imply sales levels of a similar amount?
"Our dedicated manufacturing facility in Auckland’s Highbrook Technology Estate allows us to represent leading flexible foam brands from around the world and design, prototype and manufacture new components. At the same time, our sites in East Tamaki (Auckland) and Christchurch add to our expanding network, which currently employs 37 staff and is growing."
"We export around the world to markets like Asia, Australia and the United States – with our eye also on new opportunities overseas."
With revenue of last year at $240m, an extra $6.5m is not a game changer. But as a shareholder I am happy with the purchase. I particularly like the 'earnings accretive' immediately bit.
SNOOPY
A few reasons.
The company seems to be well focussed.
Adding good bolt on acquistions.
I like the chair.Funny same chair as the company I sold to buy SKL,OCA,.Liz Coutts.
The pick up in the Australian mining sector should benefit SKL.
Little debt.
Growing dividend.FY 18...11cps......FY 19...13cps......FY 20....14cps....[according to Craigs]
Revenue mainly offshore, which is positive should the NZ low interest rate enviroment lead to a lower NZ $.
Thanks for your view, maybe I should add some more. I nearly added some a couple of days ago but thought they were looking a bit strong and the price might drop back a bit. They have certainly picked up their game in recent years, were going backwards for quite a while, or static at best.
We are doing well Skellers.
Share price now $2.25.
Been good volume the past two days.
I bought back in at the start of January all based on their forward looking plans...even looking backwards the numbers are fine but forwards it looks like they have a future. They had better continue upwards as they are my NZ conviction stock. And if they slip in the short-term there is always the dividend.
Another good day up 3 cents to $2.29.