Originally Posted by
Catalyst
My valuation range is between $1.10 - $1.20 if I now use the midpoint of the company's current guidance ($18.5m - $19.5m). I wouldn't be surprised to see the company exceed this range, like last year, though.
Forecast NPAT = $19.0m midpoint
Forecast EBITDA = $36.8m (NPAT + $8.2m tax + $2.3m int + $7.3m dep'n/amort'n)
PE of 12.0x = 12.0 x ($19.0m/191.1m shares) = $1.18
EV/EBITDA of 6.5x = (6.5 x $36.8m - $26.6m net debt) / 191.1m = $1.10
If I assume NPAT will be $20.0m, my valuation range is $1.15 - $1.25, using the same PE (12.0x) and EV/EBITDA (6.5x) multiples above. It could be argued that if the company is in a period of good growth prospects then the multiples could be increased. If I assume $20.0m NPAT and use a PE of 13.0x and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.5x, both multiple-based valuations then come to $1.35.