Been in a downward trend for just over a year now..
Been in a downward trend for just over a year now..
Great sleuthing ;);
However - what makes you think that this could not be the bend in the trend?
Last minimum was in March 2018 - since than higher highs (well, depending on how you measure them) and clearly higher lows.
MACD just turned "green" - indicating the start of a new uptrend.
Why do you think the share is still stuck in a downtrend?
Big queue?
Attachment 9706
I guess it depends on your definition of "big" and "queue".
Have to concede TA doesn't look especially encouraging right at the minute but as Percy reminds us from time to time share prices follow earnings...
My thinking behind buying in before TA confirmed a new trend is this stock is very cheap and sometimes you have to go with FA over TA and let TA follow after all there is a vast number of fully priced shares on the market and it is very difficult to find real value with growth in EPS thrown in for nothing. No growth PE with the current low interest rates, (amendment to Benjamin Graham's 8.5 PE for no growth based on 4% risk free 10 year rate) I reckon is 10 based on 10 year Govt stock under 3% presently. Turners are trading on ~ 10 times last years earnings therefore I maintain that effectively shareholders are getting the growth for free and a divvy yield of 8.2% gross...so we're being paid handsomely to be patient and get free growth...how good is that !
I could think about a number of reasons for people to buy newer but pre-loved cars now (or soon-ish) ...
- old car breaking down? Remember the overall age of the NZ car fleet ...
- looking for a more reliable ride ... (again ref to age of our car fleet)
- looking for a safer ride ... some people do appreciate the higher safety rating of newer cars.
- looking for a more economic (but still affordable car) with petrol prices going up?
- the urge to invest the gummit's winter subsidy not just in smokes and booze?
- feeling rich after all these expected outrageous pay rises this year?
So many good reasons to look for a better used car.
This must be glorious times for a well organised one stop shop serving second hand car buyers with cars, finance, insurance and maintenance ...
There are some encouraging signs using different methods.
Eg over the last two months we have seen a 5 wave impulse followed by a 3 wave correction
The correction demonstrated divergence in the RSI (blue lines)
That correction would appear to have reversed on strong volume
Attachment 9708
Hey Percy, I've now got the same number of shares as yourself but not as many as you and your wife combined. Now I can do my ramp, I reckon there is around $1 upside here over the next 18 months plus divvies, on a current PE of 10, what's not to like. After the latest result the business has been derisked further to boot. PS-As we have seen with other stocks over time, the market can be very slow to wake up.
What would it take for us to get into the NZX50?
At the AGM, Grant Baker said it was their goal to get into the NZX50.
TRA have a current market cap of $251 million.
Looking at who's above us in the NZX50, we have CVT ($271M) and NZX ($300M).
Seems like we need a 20% boost to the share price to get over CVT and NZX, about $3.55.
If we make it into the NZX50, index funds will pile into TRA to push us up even more.
Can we make it? I think so, we were only at $3.55 merely a year ago :)