Well I guess we should be selling all our A2 shares then as it approaches the MA200. PS-Good buying opportunities only come on price drops.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL180...confidence.htm
Some people reckon this business confidence thing is male white businessmen who voted National behaving like 5 year olds and having a tantrum....or could they be right and Labour are sending us down a rabbit hole into a recession ? None of this will matter though because Turners demographic are flush with funds from the new families package lolly scramble and they'll be buying used cars in droves because the workers time has arrived and they couldn't care two hoots about business confidence...right ? So if its all going so well why is the SP back down in the doldrums again ?
Most probably closer to CMO than TRA.
Just remember every day Turners are improving and growing their business.They have the capacity to pay increasing fully imputated divies.
Concentrate on the business,rather than the share price.Try to think like a business owner, like Warren Buffett.
I think the lack of business confidence is unconscious biases coming into play e.g. National = good, Labour = bad, men competent and women incompetent.
Labour sending us into a recession? National sent a lot of people into recession, especially people who don’t own their own home. People being homeless, living in cars is something you associate with recessions and depressions not a healthy economy. And those who are renting are struggling to pay soaring rents. So officially the stats may say it is not a recession but many are really struggling financially.
yep politicised misinformation, but thats typical of the national party ,a great example being judith collins fake news snippet ,with a new low ,adding the prime ministers name to the fakery, anything goes with them ala trump, sad hole they are in and its getting deeper.
"Elsewhere in the world, firms would kill for the favourable conditions that business enjoys in this country. New Zealand is running a surplus, has remarkably low levels of government debt, enjoys historically low interest rates, has excellent terms of trade, has a currency rate increasingly favourable for exporters…. This country also has a government willing to pick up an unequal share of the tab – by OECD standards – of the private sector’s own research and development costs ; it operates a benign tax regime on capital gains, has relatively low labour costs subsidized by welfare payments by the state, has help available from the state for the cyber security risks facing business, has low unemployment, low inflation and a coalition government that’s committed to fostering global trade… Add it all up, and the positive factors for business could hardly be rosier.
On top of all that, the coalition’s Families Package and Winter Energy payments are about to inject hundreds of millions of dollars into the retail sector of the economy. What more help can those in business possibly want, or need? Why don’t these bold buccaneers of commerce show a bit of the pluck and self-reliance that they expect of everyone else? In effect, most of them are behaving like a five year old at a birthday party that isn’t getting everything its own way."
Neighbour getting heaps from his mates for ‘switching’ into Turners ....lamenting buying at recent highs. Reminded him that A2 was being a dog at the moment as well.
Told him it won’t go any lower so just hang in there might be best
Some of them thought they were really cool rubbing shoulders and mixing with real investors at the meetings
He should chose his mates more carefully.!
Perhaps they would not be laughing at him had they attended the presentation with him.
My mate went to the TRA presentation HHG put on.Most impressed.
Luckily he has you as a neighbour.
ps
Are his mates the "mad investor" bowlers?
One thing that hasn't really been discussed much on here and something I discussed with management after the road show presentation is the seasonality of sales. A huge amount of business is done in spring and winter is the low period. Its always been this way and wondering why I asked management for an explanation.
People feel more confident in spring and are more comfortable shopping for vehicles as the weather warms up.
Might explain the present weakness in SP, just the winter doldrums, (he says hopefully, clutching at straws for possible explanations)
Anyway on a brief read of the annual report yesterday I reminded myself that organic growth is a gradual thing and Rome wasn't built in a day. Essential ingredients with all investing is the requirement for perseverance and persistent patience. I call this the rule of the 3 P's.
Its a little similar to the old army saying of the rule of 7 P's which is also a good one for business. Prior proper planning prevents p### poor performance.
Good post and you make a convincing case.
Here however is a very good counter argument https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12104190
How does one plan in business with so much policy about to be made up at some unknown stage in the future by the 100+ working groups ?
The issue I believe is that Labour are creating so much uncertainty around future policy they are casting a shadow of doubt over the entire economy and decision makers looking at decisions around expansion or capex are basically throwing up their hands in the air and saying with so much doubt perhaps its best we are prudent and do nothing.
Of course little of this is of any relevance to "Johnny" flush with funds from the new families package and getting another $200 per week subsidy for his family from others who will be down at Turners getting a better car.
Off topic but I agree National should have done more to spread the benefits of the growth in the economy. Perhaps immigration could have been curtailed more so that house prices and rent are more realistic but this is a problem in many expensive cities in the world. Try renting a good house in Zurich, New York or London for example. I think if I was a young person facing Auckland's systemic rental cost and transport issues I would throw my hands up and say its too hard and shift elsewhere. Napier or Nelson spring to mind.
Good point Beagle.
I went shopping with my daughter last year for a car (currently in her third year at University). We were looking at cars in January for several reasons:
- Daughter was able to spend the time looking at cars and making a decision before returning to Uni and her job
- I don't know what it's like in other parts of the country, but in Auckland there are pockets of car-yards in certain areas (Wairau Park, Otahuhu, Manukau) and walking from one car-yard to the next in the cold rain of winter is unpleasant
- And of course you're spending a lot of time looking at cars outside. Who wants to do that in miserable weather?