I think there is a global warming thread somewhere.........
Printable View
I think there is a global warming thread somewhere.........
If you believe the shore line are retreating this could be a good investment for you, all you have to do is buy the cheaper houses one street back from the beach and soon it will be a beach front property.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Shrewd Crude
delgary- with statistics you can find information to support any argument... no matter how ridiculous your source is....its just baloney... maybe 1998 was a super hot year, and those other years are cooler in comparison.... but we definately have a trend of much warmer world wide temperatures, the changes are not natural changes....
small island nations are starting to disapear.....
go ask Majuro where its beachfront has gone...
There is evidence that in America retreating shore lines are occuring as well....
trackers-you should be concerned....
mac dunk- you are right that the ice on the top that counts the most when it melts.... well the ice on the top is melting....
Sea levels rise for 2 reasons
1- ice melting, (we already have this)....
sea ice in the Artic Ocean is thinning, massive antartic ice sheets have collapsed into the sea with alarming rapidity
and 2- thermal expansion of water as the temperature rise the sea becomes less dense and then expands....
the ice cap on mount Kilimanjaro may be gone in 20 years... about 1/3 of kilimanjaro ice fields have dissapeared in 12years....and 82% has vanisheed since it was first mapped in 1912.... what do you have to say about that delgary?
all I no is that we have icebergs floating off the coast of Dunedin, natural disasters world wide are worse than ever before, we in NZ have had the worst summer of all time... ice sheets are melting and delgary says temperatures are falling but yet sea levels are rising..... I could show you one million articles supporting global warming for every 1 that you show me against it...
hahhaha, classic buddy
[8D]
.^sc
Better be quick. If maori foreshore and sea bed claim is ever ratified its gonna be very crowded on the little thats left in year 2121.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by info
If you believe the shore line are retreating this could be a good investment for you, all you have to do is buy the cheaper houses one street back from the beach and soon it will be a beach front property.
Shrewdie might be some available building sites along desert road. (Well the bit thats left after lahar flash flood)if you hurry. Best be quick before addy becomes SH1 central south Island.
Hello Shrewd Crude. Back on topic here, metaphorically speaking.
Here is a general concept. The young are rich in time but poor in assets, the older being poor in time & often rich in assets. Learning how to use the time factor is like a sailor learning how to use the wind.
Buying property is like catching a train on the Johnsonville line. If you can only afford a ticket to Crofton Downs, that will get you on the way to Johnsonville quicker than waiting around for the full price ticket to J'ville. I bought my first property at 24, I took on two jobs to get the deposit. Most people will say buying their first property takes sacrifices, & it is still true today. If it is important to you, you can find a way to do it. Don't dwell on it taking thirty years to pay off, if you're into investment at 22, that concern won't be an issue.
Worrying about various disasters is a waste of time, if one occurs you'll be screwed whether you hold property or not. Having faith in the future goes hand in hand with success. Watch people around you over a few years & this will be confirmed to you. Fretting is for losers. Don't get sucked in.
So here endeth the sermon.
Or you could walk to J'ville and invest your money in shares. :DQuote:
quote:Originally posted by coge
Hello Shrewd Crude. Back on topic here, metaphorically speaking.
Buying property is like catching a train on the Johnsonville line. If you can only afford a ticket to Crofton Downs, that will get you on the way to Johnsonville quicker than waiting around for the full price ticket to J'ville. I bought my first property at 24, I took on two jobs to get the deposit. Most people will say buying their first property takes sacrifices, & it is still true today. If it is important to you, you can find a way to do it. Don't dwell on it taking thirty years to pay off, if you're into investment at 22, that concern won't be an issue.
Lots of crying on a hot day? [:p]Quote:
quote:Originally posted by aspex
c. A misture.
I'm certainly not a property bull but I don't see terra firma apocalypse in the offing. There are no obvious triggers for the kind of income expansion that working women have created. Gareth Morgan has it right that the 2nd income hasn't been that beneficial - most of it has flowed through to mortgage payments. Pay Parity (between sexes) offers the prospect of somewhat rising incomes but with any sort of birth rate parity is not really practical - a proportion of partners will leave one parent at home at least part of the time - this impacts career prospects and earnings.
In practical terms we are probably close to full employment. There is a base of unproductive labour that will always be too stupid, lazy, undereducated or even physically / mentally handicapped to provide the same sort of benefits to the economy and the household that most of us take for granted. Even if unemployment drops from 4 to 2%, the incremental impact is little compared to the original drop from 10% and the benefits likely mixed given many of them will be the least productive labour available.
This tells me there needs to be a seriously different trigger* to the ones we have had to maintain real property growth. With Baby Boomers retiring and dying, we'll be competing hard with other countries just to maintain status quo. Immigration may achieve this but it will require a very different local mindset to double the number of immigrants each year even as locals (dare I say "pale skinned"?) are diminishing.
In short, no property implosion, just a reordering of "hot" versus "has been" and perhaps even extended periods of no or even negative real growth (but still managing nominal growth in dollar terms) without lots of new arrivals in one form or another.
Given even recent property performance is anemic compared to an actively managed equity portfolio, I see little need to switch from equities to real estate. While I fully expect equities to underperform current norms in the future, my expectation is that performance over longer time periods will remains at relative parity- i.e. both will be relatively subdued. I have an equity portfolio (Should call it a cash portfolio at the moment) worth many times the average house. When I double the value of that portfolio (as I have several times over the last few years without any debt), on a purely financial analysis opportunity cost of even 20% housing gains become apparent.
* I am interested in the "seriously different triggers" though! If such a thing exists in a positive form ...Robotics & AI? Transport improvements? whatever other productivity tools? ...there will be much more money to be made in those than in real estate.
Or D. Prices stagnate for several yearsQuote:
quote:Originally posted by aspex
Realism will ultimately prevail.
Income increases have not matched property i ncreases.
Whatever the reasons forthis one of a number of scenarios will work through.
a. property prices will fall.
b. Incomes will increase.
c. A misture.
Depending on the rate of correction an overshoot is possible and probably more certain if the correction is more severe.
With landlords unable to depend on capital gain, negative gearing will force the hand of some and many bargains will eventuate.
Steady hand on the tiller through rough waters will work out well.
Until the last few months buying to reside would be my choice. Now I believe that renting is the answer for the next three to five years or choosing to buy non-residential only.
Quote:
quote:
Wns you've done this before ;))
I haven't put any deals together myself but I was the money partner on 4-5 deals with another guy (who has done 50+ deals). A couple of the deals were installment contracts (wraps), one was done as a second mortgage deal and the other was a lease/option deal. The last two deals just cashed out completely in the last couple of months and we've put the $50k or so into our home loan interest saver account.
The longest deal went for about three years. Like you say, you want them to cash out quickly coz that's a win / win - the buyer gets conventional finance coz they now qualify, and your ROI is good coz you make your profit quicker.
CLAP! CLAP! CLAP! Well said Coge!Quote:
quote:Originally posted by coge
... Most people will say buying their first property takes sacrifices, & it is still true today. If it is important to you, you can find a way to do it. Don't dwell on it taking thirty years to pay off, if you're into investment at 22, that concern won't be an issue.
Worrying about various disasters is a waste of time, if one occurs you'll be screwed whether you hold property or not. Having faith in the future goes hand in hand with success. Watch people around you over a few years & this will be confirmed to you. Fretting is for losers. Don't get sucked in.
So here endeth the sermon.
Canterbury Property Investors Association magazine December 2006/January 2007
The Star 29/09/06
Steve Brooks is not old enough to go to the casino, but the 19 - year - old has been playing the property market since he was 14. Last week he signed up his biggest deal yet: a 3800m2 block of land on Buchanans Rd and now owns nine houses in Christchurch. He has recently set up his own business and is getting a book published, A Young Punter's Guide to Property Investing.
Good on him! I wonder if he knows how to cope with a downturn?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by cantab
Canterbury Property Investors Association magazine December 2006/January 2007
The Star 29/09/06
Steve Brooks is not old enough to go to the casino, but the 19 - year - old has been playing the property market since he was 14. Last week he signed up his biggest deal yet: a 3800m2 block of land on Buchanans Rd and now owns nine houses in Christchurch. He has recently set up his own business and is getting a book published, A Young Punter's Guide to Property Investing.
Good on him! I wonder if he knows how to cope with a downturn?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Steve
The Star 29/09/06
Steve Brooks is not old enough to go to the casino, but the 19 - year - old has been playing the property market since he was 14. Last week he signed up his biggest deal yet: a 3800m2 block of land on Buchanans Rd and now owns nine houses in Christchurch. He has recently set up his own business and is getting a book published, A Young Punter's Guide to Property Investing.
[/quote]
mmm. 2 Steves, 2 attitudes, 1 winner. I wonder which one ;))
What an inspiring story of young Steve Brooks.
My advice for Shrewd Crude & other young punters, don't put on a hair-shirt & cloister yourselves. Abandon all thoughts of bird-flu, global warming, premature baldness, yellow peril, Y2k or whatever etc. Rather, spend your time thinking & creating positive things. And for Gods sake toughen up!.
I want to hold proprty just not a mortgage.
From my future radar i can see property continueing to make 9% gains for at least another 2 years. We are about to hit a re-influx of liquid capital just waiting to find a new home. COmbine that with realestate popularity, population growth and steady economy...
We're in agreement Bel. The current momentum should continue for at least two years, although maybe not 9% PA across the board. If they want to slow it down they need to reduce interest rates a little, to limit the demand for the NZD & induce a mild credit squeeze. Instead Dr Bollard is tub-thumping about putting them up.