I share your views.
Printable View
H&M in Sylvia Park is very popular. I have no doubt H&M will do fine, but I don't think that will come of the expense of HLG. They will never have the same reach as Hallenstein Glassons in NZ. And also so many men's retailers are going under that there's plenty of business left for those smart enough
StatsNZ Retail Card Spend May
Apparel down 3.8% v May 2017 following a 2.4% decline in April
Indicates a 'softish' market for likes of Hallensteins and Glassons
But no worries as both are killing the competition and making big market share gains
Cheers for that W69. 2 winters ago the average 5 winter month apparel NZ spend was 307.8 mill and HLG made 6.9 mill NPAT, last winter the ave spend for the same 5 months was 306.4 mill (down 0.5%)and HLG made $8.1 mil NPAT (up 17.4%). The first winter month sales of this year is 304 mil so quite a bit down. As hungry as we all are for this kind of "heads up" there really isn't any correlation between NZ apparel spend and HLG`s NPAT. The only enemies I've observed for HLG as stated before are the USD and an unseasonably warm winter. Obviously no worries about the USD or NZ being too warm right now. Not sure about Melbourne`s temp but anything under 25c feels cold to them so should be ok.
Correct Naverick but there is a very strong correlation between HLG H2 NZ sales and these card spend sales for the corresponding periods.
In 2015, 2016 and 2017 HLG second half sales in NZ have basically grown in line with card spend. There ‘market share’ on this numbers has remained about 5.0%. Essentially if card spend is a de facto market size HLG stores haven’t grown market share.
As you are no doubt aware npat is also impacted by other things like margins and expense. The npat figures you mention include these factors....as well as including what happened in Australia.
So if anything the ‘heads up’ from that card spend data is that HLG NZ sales in H2 this year possibly might not be as robust as some think. Nothing else than that ....and top line growth is a key driver of profit growth
Hopefully margins are still improving and expenses remain under control and Aussie is still booming .¿if so no worries about the expected record profit being reported
Cold wet and windy outside so a bit bored so pulled this together foir completeness sake
HLG NZ sales (exc Storm) as a share of Stats NZ Retail Card Spend data aligned to HLG reporting periods
Share is up so far this year ...thats good and hopefully a start of a new trend after being pretty flat for a while
Maverick ..as a heads up Card Spend down 1.5% this period .... incraesed share should pull HLG through
A few months before the next whopper of a divie
But NZD has dropped below USD69 cents and even lower in Australia. Could go lower still. Makes life a bit difficult for HLG
Just saying
NZD holding just above 69 cents according to ANZ securities this morning. Still in the multi year band of 69-74 cents and I am sure HLG use forward cover to buy their currency forward when it pops up from time to time and mange this extremely well, just like they manage the rest of their business.