I be in at $2 ....for SUM that is
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Oceania Living
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/7...lding-boomhtml
W69 - Hmmm with this new listing hanging over the sector and sucking the wind out of the sails of existing operators, strong indications the real estate market is cooling and flat sales by SUM itself its hard to see any reason why the SP trend would change anytime soon. The trend is your friend if your waiting for a point of entry, why rush ? I don't think you'll see $2.00 but the SP will have a 2 in front of it very soon. Norah Barlow timed the exit of the vast majority of her stake pretty well eh....still I suppose that's what happens when you're in possession of all the facts just before a Q1 sales announcement.
Highly esteemed ? Plenty of food for thought there I think...I can't help speculate if the buyers of that stake were as well informed...
Riiiiiiiight oooooon the eeeeeeedge...
Last year's underlying profit $22.154m / 217.297m shares = EPS of 10.195 cps.
299 / 10.195 = a PE of 29.3. where's the bottom ?
$2.20 if SUM copies what happened to RYM 7 years ago. Refer http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post493837
But without another GFC, can't see SUM going that low.
You guys all gone to a funeral or something, not much in the way of comment lately about how good sales are going to be and all that stuff
Chin up guys. The market just a bit irrational at the moment
Some say a good time to buy when like this
But the again the market may actually be acting rationally and this is a just a valuation rerating
Whatever one thing or sure Summerset will make heaps of dosh this year
Well I suppose I am doing it all wrong,by not selling out and waiting for the new uptrend.
However my shares in SUM average, after selling down approx. 35cents per share while I am having a free ride with RYM.
I prefer RYM and SUM to others in the sector.I would be more than happy to retire in either company's villages,which I think is the real test.
With over 1,000,000 people over the age of 65 in just a few years I feel that huge tail wind will mean both RYM and SUM will prosper.
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Well - not much news lately (other than that the sector gets more crowded). However just looking into my magic spreadsheet: SUM has currently a much better P/E (15.1) than other companies working in this industry like MET (19.5), INA (32.3), RYM (27.7). This means that unless there is something we can't see yet in the bushes, SUM should have better growing potential from here than the rest.
Obviously - I don't like the recent dip either (discl: holding), but not too worried.
As always - DYOR;
O.K. - I should have noted how I get to the P/E's I used - it is one of these situations, where everybody seems to use different numbers (and some of them make even sense in context).
I use typically 2 numbers: "predicted P/E" (which is what I quoted in the post) and that's typically the earning prediction either from company announcement, Reuters or from ft.com (in this order, and normally not older than 7 days or so, when I use it) divided by the actual share price.
I use as well "average P/E" - that's the average (diluted) earnings over the last 5 years divided by current share price.
Banks and finance websites use all sort of numbers - predicted P/E, last years P/E, P/E based on real earnings or on underlying earnings and sometimes they seem to pick just a random number. It is as well not unusual that the same company uses different numbers in parallel (look e.g. at ANZsecurities - the Reuters tab shows often a different P/E than the detailled tab, so I try to keep my numbers comparable, but leave it up to everybody else what you want to use ...
So I re-state: in MY books it looks like SUM has a P/E advantage ...:)
Agree 100% and I think RYM have earned a slightly higher PE but both are over-rated IMHO considering the modest EPS growth I'm expecting (10-15)% for the current year.
I've given up trying to pick the extent of the correction...I'll simply wait until there's a confirmed 3 day break back above the 100 day MA going back up...whenever that might be... but it won't surprise me at all if this is a very long time coming. FWIW my preferred re-entry company into this sector is RYM.
Is this methodology for picking the correction what others use? I'd be interested to hear thoughts, I'm okay at getting out (sometimes - when I stop listening to myself too much), but have few skills about when to get back in again...
I'd appreciate any thoughts around this..? :)