Hoop, this is the SUM thread.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Printable View
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/263382.pdf
The secret to understanding SUM's future profitability is contained therein. I will give readers a hint. Look at page 20 and how embedded value of existing units has grown very strongly in the last six months in particular and the last year. Multiply that by 2,999 units, gives just on $420m of embedded value waiting to be unlocked as residents exit their units and then have a good look at the average age of residents moving in and the latest tenure stat's.
Wrap you head around that and you'll understand that this company is headed rapidly towards making well in excess of $100m per annum by FY18, my estimate this year $85-90m, official company estimate $72-75m this year.
The hounds long range nose is picking up some extremely juicy capital gains coming with this one but shareholders will have to wait for a while as all pervasive uncertainty reigns supreme right at the minute.
But wait there's more. Maybe, just maybe, Taxcinda Marx won't be biting chunks out of our portfolio value with her huge teeth ?
http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/nation...cid=spartandhp
I hold sum.
I am concerned about labour government damaging the property market. Minor concerns about staffing.
I am holding and may but more if labour get in and the price drops, or if national get in and it doesn't.
I will probably decide whether or not to sell in 2023.
You are not understanding my posts (but maybe I'm not understanding your post)..my feline friend..
Let me expand so these FA people see my TA reasoning....
Late September 2016 SUM falls from 5.60 to 5.20 support...It looked like a real buy of "cheap" shares (remember the shareprice fell even though the results announced were very good Total sales for the quarter the highest ever)..Hell it even trapped me at the time thinking bullish and writing the 5.20 bounce could be a bottom..but TA caution was very much evident..and had me referring to the other thread on 30th September 2016 post#266 SUM Status....HOLD, DON"T ACCUMULATE YET
Buying in/accumulating after the 5.20 bounce would have a mistimed buy ( TA told everyone not yet.. wait!!) ..Judging from ST thread from August to Late September many B&H investors would've have done mistimed buy/accumulations...interesting to read back on this thread (starting Mid August 2016)..(Kudo's to Black Peter)
That mistimed buy in late September 2016 sees SUM investors still underwater (-6%) a year later...Could have been worse as many investors have a knack at buying at the top..that mistimed buy back in early September 2016 sees SUM investors underwater by -12% a year later
A good day for the retirement sector SUM up 4 to 5.01 ..the first day in trading after a new poll out yesterday seeing National back in front...It seems this market sector has negative sentiment towards Labour..more political effect than I thought...
SUM still not a TA buy yet but looking better..Support testing buyers could be "in" early (more risk)
Hoop.
With regard to this post of yours which crashes my browser if I try and quote & reply to it.
One of the great things about making a real time call on the market price and the future movement thereof is that the market will then do it's own thing and sometimes lets us look like geniuses and sometimes it makes us look like complete idiots.
If you want to dig back a year or more and cherry pick an occasion when you were the genius and others who have a different methodology, in your eyes were not, well that is up to you.
That near 5 year uptrend looks good to me, even on a log chart.
As for those who bought at the 'wrong time', whether they actually think it was a wrong decision, if so what they did about it and what they learnt from it is entirely up to them.
BTW your two links to two particular pages are only good if we have the same posts per page and direction set as you.
What you see depends upon your view point.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
A rather caustic post PT..I'm disappointed...
Beagle post..."..Good to see SUM bounce nicely off its 100 day and 180 day MA, a technical analysis FACT that for some strange reason the TA experts on here are reluctant to acknowledge, go figure ?..." TA is only the messenger or barometer..I don't know why SUM is misbehaving TA-wise for so long either Beagle....I too personally think SUM is a great company (on my watchlist) and I have no doubt I will be a future shareholder..Good TA news today SUM did fire the odd buy signal..and as you said it has bounced of mass supports (a good sign)..maybe this is the start/catch up of returning to higher highs (resumed up trend)...I hope so for the many shareholders...
Anyway this is my last post here for a while maybe longer..I have very limited time in my life and I'm always super busy...Some of my posts take up to an hour to prepare.. Donating time to ST is my choice in trying to help investors..nothing more (contrary to PT's comments) ..It's time to donate some of that time back to me..
Bye for now
Whatever you're drinking, smoking or taking, I don't want any of it.
Give up with the political interjections Josh, it's damaging only to your reputation, and not at all to the informed and generous posters sharing their views on all of these threads, regardless of whether anyone agrees with them or not.
Plot lost? Get a grip.
Sorry but i get tired of the same old fear mongering national party line stuff. keep politics off the company threads imo.
Depends on the context. I guess the recent play of the Left showed clearly that the Left is quite capable of creating havoc on our stock markets - they did it last time by slashing the SP of gentailers with their stupid ideas and they did it this time by suppressing the SP of age care providers. This political posturing hits however not so the "evil rich" (everybody with more than average income), but it damages everybody with a Kiwisaver account.
It was the uncertainty about tax changes created by Labour which suppressed the SUM share price. Just imagine what would happen if these gals ever get into government?
A highly relevant discussion for the SUM thread I would think.
Julian was on radio this morning
Building things in Auckland (capacity) a bit challenging but they coping well and 450 new nuts this year seems a given ........and te perceived property market collapse having no impact
No worries
From the Herald Business today.
Jacinda effect?
The share prices of all the major listed retirement village companies have tailed off in recent weeks.
Since late August, market leader Ryman has fallen by 38c from $9.48.
The real estate market has a direct impact on how these companies fare, so weakening house prices may be making their presence felt. It's also possible that they could be reacting to the Labour Party's improved - albeit brief - showing in the opinion polls, thanks to Jacinda Ardern's elevation to the top job.
Shane Solly, portfolio manager and research analyst at Harbour Asset Management, says retirement village operator Arvida's plan to raise $77 million in a discounted rights issue to help pay for three new villages could be acting to divert interest from the others, hence the weakness in their share prices.
In the big picture, Solly says the outlook for the sector remained favourable.
"The structural trend, the demographic of a massive wave of baby boomers hitting their mid seventies, will happen regardless of policy change or a slowdown in the residential property market."
I know one thing about how increase the share price that has nothing to do with politics. I just need to sell my shares.... the power I have got!!!