Running the numbers on the 19th September 2014 announcement.
"3. CCHL has to date received acceptances in respect of 18,392,283 LPC ordinary shares. This constitutes 17.986% of the total LPC ordinary shares on issue."
Before the offer, as at 7th August 2014, CCHL held 81,499,857 shares out of a total of 102,261,279 shares on issue. The 18,392,283 shares referred to above include the 15,825,477 shares held by Port Otago. So the number of shares CCHL has acquired from small shareholders since the offer opened is:
18,392,283 - 15,825,477 = 2,566,806
CCHL required half of the small shareholder's shares to be sold into the offer to wipe out the chances of a second valuation. The total number of shares in small shareholder's hands before the offer was 4,935,945. Half that number is 2,467,973. More than that number is already in the hands of CCHL. I therefore conclude it is 'game over' and all remaining shareholders will be paid out at $3.95, even as I was posting my own acceptance form away.
Quite why CCHL did not say this explicitly in their Friday announcement I don't understand. Perhaps they wanted remaining small shareholders to gradually work it out for themselves to forestall a co-ordinated backlash of anger?
SNOOPY
PS Game over on hold. See highlighting in my post 469